We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
.
Duck/goose decoys? Game calls? Optics? We have you covered! Click the logo above or visit Final Flight on Facebook, as well.
.
.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday night – Increasing clouds with a chance for a few showers after midnight. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% before midnight and 40% after midnight
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread after midnight.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Friday – Cloudy. A chance for a few morning showers. Rain showers diminishing during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Rainfall totals from this system should range from 0.10″-0.30″. There is some indication that parts of the region won’t pick up much from this fast moving system. Keep that in mind.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 46-52 degrees. Temperatures may fall during the afternoon hours behind the cold front.
Winds: Southwest winds at 8-16 mph and gusty. Winds will switch around to the west/northwest behind the cold front at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% before noon. 20% after 12 pm.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread early in the day.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Friday night – Some clouds. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows from 28 to 34 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts above 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. Colder.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 36 to 42 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Some clouds. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows from 18 to 24 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% chance
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – A mix of sun and clouds. Colder. Small chance for afternoon/evening rain or snow showers. Gusty winds during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 28 to 34 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph before noon and 8-16 mph with gusts above 20 mph after the noon hour.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Some clouds early and then clearing. Snow showers possible.
Temperatures: Lows from 8 to 14 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely. Can’t rule out a snow shower.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Bitterly cold air.
Monday – Mostly sunny and cold.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 20 to 25 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold.
Will be watching Tuesday for another weak system.
The School Bus Stop forecast needs a sponsor!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Rain showers late Thursday night into Friday morning.
2. Colder for the weekend.
3. Small chance for light rain/snow on Saturday night.
4. Bitterly cold behind a second front on Sunday night and Monday.
No major changes in the short range forecast. An area of low pressure will pass to our north on Friday. This will drag a cold front across our region. Some showers and light rain will accompany the front. A few days ago this looked to be a healthy system. But, with each passing day the rainfall totals anticipated have diminished.
It is possible that some areas pick up sprinkles or a trace of rain. Other areas could pick up 0.10″-0.20″. Small chance of higher totals.
Another weak system will pass through our region on Saturday night into Sunday night. A few light showers or snow showers can’t be ruled out along the front. Moisture appears to be limited. But, let’s keep an eye on it.
Much colder air arrives by Sunday into Monday. As a matter of fact, some areas could dip into the single digits on Monday morning. Bitterly cold air.
A series of weak systems may move through the region next week. Whether one or more will produce precipitation is uncertain. Plenty of time to keep an eye on that part of the forecast.
A few maps.
This is the NAM model guidance for Friday morning. You can see some green over our area. That represents rain and showers.
Moving ahead to Friday afternoon and evening. The green is on the way out.
This next map is for Sunday evening. This is another cold front. NAM guidance paints some light rain and snow along the front. Bitterly cold air behind the front.
Looking at the high resolution future-cast radar from the NAM WRF
This first image is for 6 am on Friday morning. Some showers in the region.
This next image is for the lunch hour. Still some showers around,
Temperatures may fall some on Friday afternoon behind the cold front. Let’s take a look at temperatures ahead of and behind the front.
Ahead of the front around 11 am to 12 pm.
And, behind the front around 4 or 5 pm.
Bitterly cold Sunday into Monday…
Check out the temperature map for Monday morning. Lows into the single digits will be possible.
Temperature anomalies for Monday morning. High many degrees below normal will temperatures be?
There are hints of a couple of systems next week. But, no certainties. GFS is more bullish than other models are bringing precipitation chances back into the region between Tuesday and next Saturday. EC model guidance is not nearly as bullish and keeps us mostly dry.
I will keep an eye on it.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
No major or significant snow events over the next three days. Small chance Saturday night/Sunday morning of light snow.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday night – Monitoring for light snow. Low confidence.
Sunday – Monitoring for light snow. Low confidence.
Monday – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes.
No major concerns in the short range forecast.
No major concerns. Rivers do remain high, use care if you have to be out on the rivers.
The wild card will be a weak system on Saturday night that could produce some light rain or snow showers. Right now it does not appear to be much.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain chances for Thursday night and Friday appear likely. Rainfall totals should be fairly light. 0.10″-0.30″. Some areas may miss out on the rainfall. Thus, no rain for some.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Friday through Monday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
