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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday night – Clearing and chilly.
Temperatures: Lows from 14 to 20 degrees across most of the area.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 10-20 mph early and then 5-10 mph after midnight. Winds will start to turn out of the east and southeast late tonight.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
Wednesday – Morning sunshine and then a few clouds in the afternoon. Cold.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 35-40degrees
Winds: Southeast winds becoming south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
Wednesday night – Some clouds. Fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows from 32 to 36 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None.
Thursday – A mix of sun and clouds. Not as cold. Can’t rule out some fog as milder air moves over the cold ground.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 46-52 degrees. Can’t rule out a bit higher. Hopefully. 🙂
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Winds may be gustier during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Rain becoming likely late Thursday night and Friday.
Rain ends on Friday night. Could end as a period of light snow. I will need to look at more data concerning that topic.
Dry for Saturday and Sunday. A clipper on Sunday night and Monday morning needs to be monitored. Colder for the weekend behind our rain maker.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold air for your Wednesday morning commute
2. Rain likely on Friday into Friday evening. May end as frozen.
3. Colder for the weekend. A clipper on Sunday night?
4. Monitoring the long range. Quite a bit of cold air in the charts.
The big story for the next 12-24 hours will be colder air returning by Wednesday morning. We will dip back into the teens on Wednesday. Don’t forget about our outdoor friends. Highs will rise back into the 30s. Someone might touch forty degrees during the afternoon, but mostly 30s.
Here are the anticipated Wednesday morning lows. Give or take as temperatures will vary over the area.
The next weather maker for our region will be a cold front and area of low pressure that will develop to our west and southwest on Thursday and Thursday night. This area of low pressure will track to our north and west on Friday. That places us on the warm side of the system. At least initially.
I suspect rain will start to move into our region late Thursday night and Friday morning. Friday currently looks like a damp day. The rain will likely end on Friday night. Behind the system we can expect another shot of cold air.
The rain may end as frozen precipitation on Friday night. This will need to be monitored. Clouds may linger into the weekend. I am watching a clipper on Sunday night. These clipper systems can produce snow.
Rainfall totals of 0.30″-0.60″ appear possible with this event. I will crunch some more data over the next day or two. Can’t rule out some heavier amounts. Part of this will be determined by the intensity of the area of low pressure.
The charts are showing quite a bit of cold air in the long range. We are not finished with snow chances in January. I know snow fans already had a small taste of winter weather. Well, at least parts of the region did. And, some kids missed a day or two of school. Not sure who is more excited about a snow day, the teachers or the students. I would lean teachers based on the messages I receive!
Let’s look at some weather maps
This is the GFS model guidance for later this week. This is around 10 pm to 12 am on Thursday night. You can see the red L over western Missouri. That is the area of low pressure. Isobars are fairly close together. Could mean breezy conditions for the area.
We will have to watch for some fog as the warm air moves back into our region.
Moving ahead to Friday morning at 6 am. You can see rain over our region. Some dark green in there, as well. Perhaps some moderate rain. I will have to check the thunderstorm parameters as new data arrives.
Moving ahead to late Friday morning. Rain continues in our region. Some blue back in Missouri. That is wrap around snow. We will have to monitor how far east that snow pushes. Right now this looks to be mainly a rain event. Can’t rule out some precipitation ending as snow. Healthy storm system.
Moving ahead to Friday evening. Rain is pulling away. Some wrap around snow over parts of our area. Will the rain end as snow? We will have to monitor trends.
Gusty winds also possible behind the system. Another red L back in the Texas Panhandle. I will be monitoring the track of that system, as well.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
No major concerns.
Wednesday – No snow or ice
Thursday – No snow or ice
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated
Saturday – Small chance for light snow behind the cold front. Will monitor and update.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated
Adjusted temperatures.
Chilly air. Teens on Wednesday morning. Don’t forget our outdoor friends.
No major concerns. Rivers do remain high, use care if you have to be out on the rivers.
The wild card in this update will be the timing of the rain later this week. Rain could move in as early as Thursday night. Friday is a better bet. I will crunch some more data and keep everything updated.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Another rain event is unfolding for later this week. Rain could develop as early as Thursday night. But, Friday appears to be the better chance. Then ending by late Friday night.
Rainfall totals (subject to adjustments)
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Wednesday and Thursday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
