Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 11, 2015: Cold!

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

 

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Sunday night – Bitterly cold.  Clear sky conditions.  Don’t forget about our outdoor friends.
Temperatures:  Lows from 8 above to 16 above.  Some spots could be lower than 8 degrees.  Areas with the most snow.  Keep this in mind.
Winds:  West/northwest winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Cold!

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Cold temperatures will be the main concern.  Slick roadways where snow fell.

 

Monday – Mostly sunny in the morning.  A few clouds in the afternoon.  Cold.
Temperatures:  Highs will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
Winds:  Northwest winds becoming southwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  It will be cold!
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Cold temperatures.  Slick roadways where snow fell.

 

Monday night – Some clouds. C old.
Temperatures:  Lows from 22 to 28
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  None.

 

Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Cold.  A few snow showers possible, mainly over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Chances of 1″ or less of snow falling is 10%.
Temperatures:  Highs from 34 to 38.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  It will be cold!
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Cold temperatures.

 

Tuesday night – Clearing and chilly.
Temperatures:  Lows from 14 to 20 degrees across most of the area. 
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Cold temperatures.

 

Wednesday – Mostly sunny.  Cold.
Temperatures:  Highs will range from 34 to 38 degrees
Winds:  Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  It will be cold!
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Cold temperatures.

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1. Short update
2. Cold weather to last for awhile

Short update as I am visiting family today into Monday.  And, Monday is a travel day for me.  Thank you for your understanding.

Thank you for all of the snow reports over the last 12-18 hours.

Well, some of you picked up a dusting to three of snow on Saturday night.  A few spots measured more.  Others missed out on the snow accumulation.  Bitterly cold air greeted everyone on Sunday morning.  Temperatures ranged from 9 above to 18 above.  Bitterly cold when combined with winds.

The weather will be cold once again on Sunday night and Monday.  Expect lows from around 8 above to 16 above.  Highs on Monday from the middle 20s to lower 30s.  Should be the general rule.  I suspect there will be some school closings on Monday.

Don’t forget about our outdoor pets.  Bedding might have become wet with all the rain.  The bitterly cold air will make it quite uncomfortable.

Another cold front moves through the region on Tuesday.  Small chance for flurries or snow showers.  Little or no accumulation anticipated.

I am watching another system late in the work week.  But, too soon to know if we will have to deal with precipitation.

Saturday was a GREAT example of why I tell everyone to keep checking back for updated information.  The forecast evolved throughout the day.  I ramped up with new information as it became available.  This is the way forecasting should be.  But, in order to have the most accurate information you would have had to tune back into all of the products.  The texting service shined on Saturday, because I kept sending updates with fresh information.

The forecast was not perfect.  Some counties missed out on the snow.  About three quarters of my forecast counties picked up a dusting to three inches of snow.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

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No significant snow or ice anticipated Sunday night through Wednesday.

 

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Monday-Thursday.  No significant snow or ice anticipated.  I will be watching a cold front around Tuesday.  Snow shower or flurry possible.  I am watching a system Thursday night into Friday night.  Still a bit early to know if it will impact our region.  Active flow the next few weeks.  Lot to watch.  Plenty of cold air in the charts.  Whether we can get a system to interact with the cold air, that is the question.

 

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No major changes.

 

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Bitterly cold air on Sunday night/Monday morning.   Lows will range from 8-16 degrees.  Don’t forget our outdoor friends.

 

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Slick roads will be the main concern (in areas that picked up snow and ice).

 

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Wild card will be Monday morning low temperatures.  Could someone hit 5 degrees?  Some single digits are possible.

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No rain or snow expected through Tuesday.  Small chance for a flurry.

 

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Monday through Friday of this new work week.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

 

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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