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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Avoid flooded roadways!
Saturday night – Winter Storm for parts of the area tonight. A chance for snow. Snow may accumulate 1-3″. Locally higher in banding. Can’t rule out 3-6″ on some spots. Southeast Illinois and western Kentucky/Tennessee best chance for the bigger totals. Road temperatures will start out warm and ground temperatures, as well. Might be hard to stick. But, temperatures will fall into the 20s quickly as the evening wears on. Black ice is possible. That means moisture on roadways freeze.
Temperatures: Lows in the 16 to 24 degree range. Temperatures may vary a bit on Saturday night as a cold front moves through the area.
Winds: Northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Winds may be gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 100% before midnight and then 80% after midnight. Ending from west to east.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Rain should change to snow or wintry mix before ending.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Colder temperatures and some precipitation possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Slick roadways possible.
Sunday – Mix of sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a morning flurry or light freezing drizzle. Cold. Windy at times. Wind chills could dip into the single digits to teens.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Temperatures may not rise much on Sunday. Steady or even falling temperatures.
Winds: Northwest wind 10-20 mph. Higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before 9 am.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated early in the day. Mainly our eastern counties of western Kentucky.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Small chance for a brief period of a wintry mix before 9 am on Sunday.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? It will be turning quite cold on Sunday with low wind chills possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Could be some slick spots, if snow develops. Use care.
Sunday night – Clearing. Breezy early. Bitterly cold.
Temperatures: Lows from 14 to 20 degrees across most of the area. Perhaps lower 20s near the KY/TN border.
Winds: Northwest winds at 8-16 mph dying down to 4-8 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures into the teens. Low wind chills into the single digits.
Monday – Mostly sunny. Perhaps a few clouds. Cold.
Temperatures: Highs will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Below normal temperatures. Chilly start to the day, as well.
Winds: Northwest winds becoming southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? It will be cold!
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Short update
Hello, everyone! Winter is arriving. Cold air is going to sweep across the region Saturday night and Sunday morning. By Sunday morning parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will dip into the teens. Brrr will be the word.
This is a shorter than normal update. I have a family emergency and I will not be able to post a lengthy update today or tomorrow.
Rain showers on Saturday afternoon will change to snow showers Saturday evening and night. Low confidence on 1-3″ of snow falling over parts of the area. 70% confidence level. Locally higher amounts in banding.
I am also concerned about black ice. Black ice forms when water from recent rainfall remains on the roadways. Warm road temperatures and strong winds might help keep this problem to a minimum. With that said, any snow that falls on the roads and then melts could become an issue late tonight. Just use care.
Expect teens by Monday morning.
I do think we have multiple chances for snow over the coming weeks.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Clickable watch and warning map
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
See discussion below.
Saturday night – Snow possible. Snow may accumulate 1-3″. I can’t rule out higher totals.
Sunday – Small chance for patchy light snow or freezing drizzle over western Kentucky. Small chance. Also, there could be patchy slick spots on roads Sunday morning. Part of this will depend on whether light snow falls on Saturday night. And, if moisture is left on roadways from Saturday’s rain.
Monday/Tuesday – At this time no snow or ice is expected on Monday.
Wednesday – Currently not expecting snow or ice.
Increased snow probability.
Patchy ice is possible on roadways Saturday night and Sunday morning. Falling temperatures could freeze any moisture left on roadways.
I am also a concerned about black ice. Black ice forms as cold air moves into an area where rain has recently fallen. Wet pavements can freeze if the cold air moves in fast enough. That is a possibility on Saturday and Saturday night. If you have travel plans on Saturday/Saturday night then you will want to monitor updated forecasts.
Whether snow will accumulate.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain and snow showers will come to an end on Saturday afternoon and evening. Some lingering snow showers or patchy freezing drizzle can’t be ruled out on Saturday night/Sunday morning. But, most of this event will be winding down.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Sunday-Wednesday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
