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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday night – Mostly cloudy and cool. Patchy dense fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Morning fog possible. A mix of sun and clouds. Mild for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s. Some 60 degree readings likely.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Partly to mostly cloudy and cool. A sprinkle possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Not too bad for December temperature wise. Isolated sprinkle possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s. Highs could reach into the upper 50s if the sun is out a bit longer.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Not too bad for December.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s. High temperatures will partly depend on cloud cover.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. A 20% chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for an isolated shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: South and southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Sunday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
Sunday night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Winds may turn around to the west/northwest after 3 am on Monday morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
Monday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Mostly during the early morning hours.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Northwest winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Our streak of calm weather will continue.
2. Clouds will be an on/off issue over coming days.
3. I am watching a much stronger storm system for the weekend into early next week
4. Active pattern developing?
Our calm weather will continue into Thursday and Friday. We have had quite the stretch of tranquil weather. It appears we are in a cycling pattern of a couple of weeks of calm weather followed by a very active pattern. This could be the pattern for the upcoming winter.
The question for snow lovers will be whether the active periods fall into the time frame when cold air will be available to interact with precipitation. And, that is something we will just have to monitor over the coming weeks.
A few showers are possible on Thursday night and Friday. Right now it appears to be a low end chance. If showers do develop then they would be light.
A much stronger storm system is forecast to impact our region over the upcoming weekend. It may last into Monday. Some of the models show the brunt of the precipitation falling on Sunday. Other models show the bulk of the precipitation on Monday. This will be a warm system. Not expecting snow or ice.
I can not rule out thunderstorms with this event. The thunderstorm threat will depend on the track of the area of low pressure. If the low tracks to our west and northwest then thunderstorm chances increase.
The GFS shows a decent rain event for our region for this upcoming weekend into Monday.
Remember that I always tell you to look for dew points in the upper 50s or 60s during the fall and winter months. When we reach those levels we should be monitoring for heavy storms.
Here is the GFS dew point map for Saturday night and Sunday. A large plume of moisture. Click image for a larger view.
I can zoom in a bit
We still have plenty of time to monitor the weekend storm system. And, I will be doing just that.
Another system may impact the region around December 16th-18th. Too early to know if that one will be rain or snow (or if there will even be a system). Guidance does not do all that well in active patterns.
Lots to watch in the long range part of the forecast. But, calm weather before that time. So, let’s enjoy it!
Here are the two storm systems on the GFS model guidance. One around the 16th-18th and another around the 22nd.
This one below is for the 16th-17th.
This one below is the one for the 22nd. Long way off.
No snow anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No significant changes to this forecast package.
No major concerns.
No.
No wild card for the next few days. Calm weather will prevail.
Maybe some frost on Tuesday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain expected through Thursday.
Maybe a few sprinkles or showers by Thursday night or Friday. Low confidence.
A stronger storm system is possible by the end of the new work week. That system could produce locally heavy rain on Saturday, Sunday/Monday. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Monday through Thursday
.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Sunday: Monitor updates.
Monday: Monitor updates.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
