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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday night – Mostly cloudy sky conditions. Small chance for a shower or sprinkle. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways where showers occur.
Monday – Patchy morning fog possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. A small chance for a sprinkle or shower before 4 am.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways before 4 am.
Monday night – Mostly cloudy and cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Partly to mostly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: South winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Not too bad for December temperature wise. Isolated sprinkle possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Not too bad for December. Isolated sprinkled possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. A 20% chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for an isolated shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 40s
Winds: South and southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
Sunday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather through Thursday. Clouds may be hard to shake this week.
2. Stronger storm system taking shape for Saturday/Sunday
3. Thunderstorm potential?
4. A bit more active weather ahead of us
Well, I if I told you our calm weather was going to continue would you fake a surprised look?
Our calm weather will continue into Thursday. Expect fairly mild temperatures each day. We might even touch 60 by Thursday or Friday. I doubt I hear too many people complaining about 60 degrees in December.
One fly in the ointment this week could be stratus clouds. Data indicates several periods where clouds may rule. I went partly to mostly cloudy for most days. Keep this in mind. Clouds could also keep temperatures down just a bit during the daytime.
Of course all good things must come to an end. A more active weather pattern is starting to unfold in the charts as we push into the end of the week and then perhaps lasting a couple of weeks.
Model guidance indicates a strong system will push through our region on Saturday and Sunday/Monday. This system has some characteristics that I look for when considering thunderstorms for the forecast. Thus, we need to keep an eye on Saturday and Sunday/Monday. We might have to deal with thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain, as well.
This isn’t a cold system for us. Obviously.
Another system is possible around December 16th and 17th. Long way off for details on that one.
Let’s enjoy the calm weather, for now.
No snow anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No significant changes to this forecast package.
No major concerns.
No.
No wild card for the next few days. Calm weather will prevail.
Maybe some frost on Tuesday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Small rain chances on Sunday night. Perhaps a few spots will pick up a trace to 0.10″.
A stronger storm system is possible by the end of the new work week. That system could produce locally heavy rain on Saturday or Sunday. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Monday through Thursday
.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Sunday: Monitor updates.
Monday: Monitor updates.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
