We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
.
Duck/goose decoys? Game calls? Optics? We have you covered! Click the logo above or visit Final Flight on Facebook, as well.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – An increase in clouds. Patchy fog possible. Small chance for patchy drizzle or a sprinkle.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy wet roadways are possible if sprinkles/drizzle does develop.
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A sprinkle or passing shower possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways where the showers occur.
Sunday night – Mostly cloudy sky conditions. Small chance for a shower or sprinkle.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways where showers occur.
Monday – Partly cloudy. A small chance for a sprinkle or shower before 4 am.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways before 4 am.
Monday night – Mostly cloudy and cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: South winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Not too bad for December temperature wise. Isolated sprinkle possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy and cool. Not too bad for December. Isolated sprinkled possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – A mix of sun and clouds. Mild for December.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Friday/Saturday/Sunday. Will need to monitor the thunderstorm risk.
Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Mostly calm weather to continue
2. Weak system arrives Sunday night with a small chance for showers
3. I am watching a potential rain maker for the end of the new work week
3. Much more active weather pattern showing up in the long range charts
Well, I have to say that December is off to a rather slow start when it comes to weather. Some of you have been asking me about snow. Some of you have been telling me you hope it doesn’t snow all winter. I suppose we have two camps forming.
No snow in my forecast over the coming six days.
We do have a weak disturbance moving into the region on Sunday night and Monday morning. The system will start to spread clouds into our region over the next 12-24 hours.
Clouds will increase on Sunday into Sunday evening. A few sprinkles or light showers will be possible on Sunday night/Monday morning. But, don’t expect much. A few spots could pick up a trace to maybe a tenth of an inch of rainfall. And, if this occurs at night you might not even know it rained.
Calm weather is expected Monday through Thursday. Another weak system may increase clouds on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
I am watching a stronger storm system for Friday/Saturday/Sunday into the upcoming weekend. That system could bring a round of showers and thunderstorms. We will need to monitor for some strong storms. A bit early to know about that.
We may have a more active weather pattern the last two weeks of the month. Models are showing several potential storm systems. Long range models are a bit of a crap shoot when it comes to accuracy. That means low confidence on them being correct. The GFS is showing some significant precipitation events.
Whether one of those systems might produce frozen precipitation will need to be monitored. I suppose the weatherman should enjoy the calm before the storms.
No snow anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No significant changes to this forecast package.
No major concerns.
No.
The wild card in this update will be whether or not a couple of light showers develop Sunday night and Monday. If we do have a shower develop then amounts will be light.
Maybe some frost on Sunday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few patches of light rain or drizzle will be possible late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Then again on Sunday night.
Rainfall totals should be less than 0.10″. Some places will likely not pick up any measurable rainfall.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Sunday through next Thursday
.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
