Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 26, 2015: Periods of on/off showers and storms over the coming days.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.


Friday night – A chance for some showers and possibly thunderstorms, especially late at night.  Some fog possible as the front lifts northward.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 50s (temps may vary across the region) and they may rise overnight
Winds:  East and southeast winds becoming more south winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 60%-80%
Coverage of precipitation
?  Scattered to widespread

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is  High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadwaysLightning.

 

NOTE:  VERY heavy rainfall totals are forecast to fall over parts of Missouri and Illinois from Saturday into Monday.  A potentially historic rain event is forecast by the St Louis, Missouri National Weather Service office for parts of southwest Missouri into eastern Missouri and then into Illinois.

Large and rapid rises on rivers and streams are possible.  There remains some uncertainty about where the largest rainfall totals will fall.  Monitor all watches and warnings.  Avoid flooded roadways if that becomes a problem.

 

Saturday – A period of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the morning hours.  Then a mix of sun and clouds (esp southern half of the region).  Precipitation may linger longer over the northern half of the region and northwest.  Very warm for December.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 68-74 degree range.  Very mild.
Winds:  South winds at 10-15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 60% for a few hours as the line of showers and thunderstorms move north and northwest.  Then decreasing chances as the front moves north.
Coverage of precipitation? 
Widespread for a bit.  Then isolated to scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.  Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates. 

What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.

 

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

 

Saturday night – A chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms, mainly north of the the front.  The southern half of the region may remain dry for the first half of the night.  That would include far southern Illinois and western Kentucky.   Then, showers and thunderstorms should move southward as the night wears on.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds:  South winds at 10-15 mph and gusty.  Winds may switch out of the north and northeast
What is the chance for precipitation
? 70% north of the front and 30% southShowers and storms may redevelop late at night and become more widespread.
Coverage of precipitation
?  Widespread. 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadways and lightning

 

Sunday – A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 
Winds:  West and southwest winds turning more northerly/northeaserly at 10-20 mph.  Winds will vary over the region with a front draping itself across our counties.

What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? 
Widespread

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates. 

What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy rain possible.

 

Sunday night – Showers.  Windy. Thunderstorms also possible. 
Temperatures:  Lows in the 40s.  Temperatures may vary quite a bit over the region. 
Winds:  Northeast winds at 10-20 mph.  Gusty. Winds will vary depending on which side of the front you are located.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 90%
Coverage of precipitation
?  Widespread

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
What impact is expected
?  Wet roadwaysSome flooding possible in some of our local counties.

 

Monday – Widespread showers and some thunderstorms.  Temperatures may vary greatly from north to south.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s, but perhaps much colder over our northern counties.  Falling temperatures possible in the afternoon.
Winds:  Winds becoming southerly at 10-20 mph.  Gusty at times.  Winds will vary depending on which side of the front you are located.

What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? 
Widespread

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates. 

What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Heavy rain possible.  Some flooding possible in some of our local counties.

 

Monday night – Rain ending.  Gusty winds.  Colder.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 30s. 
Winds:  Southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 40%
Coverage of precipitation
?  Scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but a few showers may remain in the area.

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Wet roadwaysPotential for large rises on some rivers and streams. 

 

Tuesday – Partly cloudy and colder. 
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Winds:  West winds at 6-12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? 
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What impact is expected?  Rivers and streams may have flooding problems.  Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.

Flash flood watch Saturday afternoon into Monday afternoon.  More counties may be added.  Keep that in mind.

Click image for a larger view

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We should dry out Tuesday into Thursday of next week.  Perhaps a bit cooler.  I will need to dig more into the extended when I have some time.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Rain is the main issue for the short range forecast
2.  Some locally heavy rain at times.  Heaviest totals west and northwest part of the region
3.  A few thunderstorms also possible

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday festivities.  The weather has kept me a little busy.  But, I have been able to enjoy my time with family.

We have a lot going on in the forecast world.  There are time periods in this mess that the forecast has a higher than normal chance of busting, at least over parts of our region.

One issue will be temperatures between now and Monday.  A front will meander over our region.  This is going to cause periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.  But, it won’t rain all the time.  There will be dry periods mixed in.  The best chance for dry weather will be south of the front.  North of the front stands the best chance for precipitation.  But, the placement of the front through each time period will be tricky.

The forecast may vary considerably from north to south.  And, temperatures will vary, as well.  There could be a 20-30 degree temperature spread over the region.  Keep that in mind.  And, the forecast reflects that in the comments.

I think the far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee should see a decent 1.5″-3″ of rain.  There is the risk for heavier totals.  And, if the front is further south than forecast then higher totals could verify.

Areas further north and west should experience the heaviest totals.  That would be from Butler County, Missouri into Jefferson County, Illinois.   There is a decent chance of 2″-4″ of rain in these areas.  Again, locally higher totals are possible.  This will cause sharp rises on rivers and streams.

Monitor updates this weekend.

Another issue could be a few strong thunderstorms.  The severe weather threat appears to be low on Friday night into Sunday.  But, not zero.

There are some concerns as the area of low pressure moves north and northeast into our region.  Typically this would cause severe weather.  But, there are many limiting factors for severe storms.  Thus, the current analysis indicates that the threat is low.  But, not zero.  Again, monitor updates.

Click image for a larger view.

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Right now I do not see any chances for snow.  Remember, I have been telling you that winter arrives in February and March.  We will see how January pans out.  Maybe a flip begins the middle of the month.  But, no promises.

This has been an extreme December.  Perhaps the warmest December in recorded history for America.  It has been impressive.  But, we have had other warm Decembers.  Nothing new under the sun (no pun intended).

Snow fans, keep coming back.  I will keep watching.

Some watches in our region (and perhaps some warnings coming)

Clickable map

 

winterstorm

No snow anticipated.

 

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Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday night – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – You guessed it.  No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.

 

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I continue to update the weekend rain event.  Probabilities and other.  I also have to watch the temperature forecast.  Could be some differences over our region.

 

whatamiconcered

Heavy rain potential Friday night  into Monday night is my main concern.

The severe weather concerns over the weekend appear small.  But, I will continue to monitor this part of the forecast.

 

willineedtotakeaction

Yes, monitor weather updates.

Umbrellas might be needed Friday into Monday night.  And, I can’t rule out some flooding issues over the weekend.   Let’s keep a close eye on the weather forecast.

Rain will be on and off.  There will be some dry periods mixed into this mess.

 

wildcard

Lot of wild cards in the forecast!  How much rain falls between Friday night into Monday night.

The main wild card will be rainfall totals. Heaviest rain should be over parts of Missouri and Illinois.  Further west and north you go then the better chances for totals over 3″.  Elsewhere, expect 1.5-3″ of rain between Friday night and Monday night.  Locally heavier amounts possible.

 

rainfallforecast

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Quite a bit of rain expected.  This is the NAM model guidance.

Widespread 1.5-3″ over our region.  And, can’t rule out some heavier totals.  Let’s keep a close eye on it.  Some spots in Missouri and Illinois will end up with more.

Officially NOAA has widespread 5-7″ for our region.  There are some disagreements among forecasters.  I could see some big totals for Missouri and Illinois.  Depending on the eventual placement of the front.  Again, monitor updates.

nam_total_precip_mc_29

 

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE on Saturday-Monday.  Some lightning possible.  Right now the severe weather risk appears small.  However, monitor updates

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Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning possible.
Friday night – Lightning possible.
Saturday – Monitor updates.  Storms are possible
Sunday – Monitor updates.  Storms are possible
Monday – Monitor updates.  Storms are possible.
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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