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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday night – Patchy clouds early and then becoming mostly cloudy. Some scattered showers and perhaps thunderstorms developing. Especially true for the southern half of the region. Far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Perhaps lesser chances over far northern counties.
Temperatures: Lows from 38-46
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5 mph becoming northeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% before midnight increasing to 60% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated before midnight. Scattered towards morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Friday – Clouds. Mild. A chance for showers. Some thunderstorms are possible. The best chance of rain will be the southern half of the region. Far northern counties may remain dry.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: East and northeast winds at 8-16 mph. Perhaps gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% far northern counties and 60%-70% elsewhere.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered north and scattered to widespread southern counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be rain on Christmas Day
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roads. Lightning.
Friday night – A chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms. Some fog possible as the front lifts northward.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50s (temps may vary across the region)
Winds: East and southeast winds becoming more south winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Large temperature differences are possible over the region Saturday-Monday. This will depend on the placement of a stationary front. North of the front you can expect 40s and 50s. South of the front you can expect at least 60s.
Saturday – Some morning fog possible. A period or two of showers and thunderstorms. As the showers and storms move north areas to the south of the front will dry out for awhile.
Temperatures: Highs in the 68-74 degree range. Very mild.
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% for a few hours as the line of showers and thunderstorms move north and northwest.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread for a bit. Then isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Saturday night – A chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms, mainly north of the the warm front. Elsewhere it may be mostly dry. Most of the activity will be north of the warm front vs south of the warm front. Where the front sets up will be key to placement of the rain. Keep this in mind. Areas south of the warm front might not have as much rain.
Then showers and thunderstorms redeveloping late at night into Sunday morning.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph. Winds could vary a bit. Depending on the placement of the front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% north of the front and 30% south. Showers and storms may redevelop late at night and become more widespread.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Sunday – A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s.
Winds: West and southwest winds turning more northerly. Winds will vary over the region with a front draping itself across our counties.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain possible.
Sunday night – Showers possible. Thunderstorms also possible. Locally heavy rain possible. Perhaps turning colder over our northern counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40s. Temperatures may vary quite a bit over the region. North of the front colder and south warmer.
Winds: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph. Winds will vary depending on which side of the front you are located.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Monday – Widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Temperatures may vary greatly from north to south. Monitor updates. Falling temperatures possible late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s, but perhaps much colder over our northern counties. And, falling temperatures possible depending on the track of the area of low pressure.
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times. Winds will vary depending on which side of the front you are located.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low/Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain possible.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Christmas showers?
2. A prolonged rain event Friday night into Monday.
3. Heavy rain totals possible. Monitor updates.
4. High chance for temperature forecasts to bust on Saturday night into Monday
No rest for the weary. Right? 🙂 I told you this week would be a busy week for the weatherman. And, I didn’t lie.
I am tracking a large storm system that will bring copious amounts of rain to our region. And, in some bands of precipitation there could be over five inches of rain. This would most likely be across parts of Missouri and Illinois. Perhaps parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois.
The storm system is still being sampled by the models. It has a lot of potential when it comes to producing rain.
We could even have some strong storms on Friday night and Saturday. But, the overall severe weather threat appears fairly small. Some good news in the mix.
There is a higher chance than usual for a temperature forecast bust on Sunday night into Monday night. Temperatures will be much colder north of the front. Temperatures will be much warmer south of the front. There could be a 20 to 30 degree difference. Let’s keep this in mind. It will not be easy to forecast from north to south over our region. Just be patient when it comes to the forecast.
Let’s look at some NAM future-cast radar maps.
This first map is for 6 am on Friday morning. You can see dry over our northern counties with rain south.
This next map is for Friday lunch. Again, dry north and rain south.
This next map is for Friday night around 11 pm. Some showers and thunderstorms possible. Again, mostly south and east vs north and west. But, they will spread northward with time.
This next map is for Saturday morning at 6 am. Showers and some storms in our region.
This next map is for Saturday around lunch. You can see this band of rain. Heavy, at times. The placement of the warm front will be key to where precipitation occurs.
This next map is for Saturday evening around 6 pm. Widespread showers and storms in the area.
I would advise everyone to monitor updated forecasts. I am sure there will be some adjustments needed with time.
I am not tracking any snow. Sorry snow lovers. So far this has not been your winter.
No snow anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday Night – Snow or ice unlikely
Monday – Snow or ice appears unlikely. Monitoring the track of the area of low pressure.
Tuesday – You guessed it. No snow or ice anticipated.
I continue to update the weekend rain event. Probabilities and other. I also have to watch the temperature forecast. Could be some differences over our region.
Heavy rain potential Friday into Monday night is my main concern.
The severe weather concerns over the weekend appear small. But, I will continue to monitor this part of the forecast.
Yes, monitor weather updates.
Umbrellas might be needed Friday into Monday night. And, I can’t rule out some flooding issues over the weekend. Let’s keep a close eye on the weather forecast. A prolonged rain event is possible Friday into Monday night. Several inches of rain possible. Monitor creek levels.
Lot of wild cards in the forecast! How much rain falls between Friday into Monday night.
The main wild card will be rainfall totals. Models show very big totals over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Will someone pick up more than five inches of rain? Seems possible. Let’s monitor updates.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
This is a lot of rain, folks. Click image for a larger view. This is through Monday night. Potential of several inches of rain.
Whether this map will verify is questionable. But, that is the forecast. Let’s hope not.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE on Friday-Monday. Some lightning possible. Right now the severe weather risk appears small. However, monitor updates The risk could be a bit higher than one on Friday night and Saturday. But, this needs to be monitored.
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Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning possible.
Friday night – Lightning possible.
Saturday – Monitor updates. Storms are possible
Sunday – Monitor updates. Storms are possible
Monday – Monitor updates. Storms are possible.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
