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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. Thick fog likely. Patchy drizzle. A chance for some showers and possible thunderstorms as the night wears on. Not expecting severe storms tonight. Temperatures rising all night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range. Temps will rise all night and some places could be in the upper 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday morning.
Winds: East/southeast at 10 mph. Winds becoming southerly and increasing to 8-16 mph towards morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% early and then 60% late
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Evening hours should be dry. Better chances for rain after midnight.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Not likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Thick fog.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday is a weather aware day. That means pay attention to watches and warnings.
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Highs from 64 to 68 degrees
Winds: South/southeast at 8-16 mph. Gusts over 30 mph likely. Winds becoming southwest and eventually west during the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in mind.
Is severe weather expected? Yes. Some severe weather may occur on Wednesday. Damaging winds and isolated tornado threat being the main concern. Hail possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Gusty winds. A risk for severe thunderstorms, as well.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. Showers possible. But, ending late. Thunderstorms possible early. Evening storms could be severe.
Temperatures: Lows should drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and mostly in the 40s over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Winds: Southwest becoming west/northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds likely early in the night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% early and then diminishing to 20% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread early and then becoming isolated late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B in mind early in the evening. Some showers may remain.
Is severe weather expected? Yes. There will be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms early Wednesday evening.
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Lightning possible. Gusty winds. A chance for a few severe storms early in the evening.
Thursday – Mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Should be a dry day.
Temperatures: Highs from 56-62
Winds: Southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Patchy clouds early and then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm
Temperatures: Lows from 38-45
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 mph becoming northeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Low confidence on Friday’s forecast.
Friday – Clouds. Mild. A chance for a few showers. Maybe a rumble of thunder. Low confidence on Friday’s forecast.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: East winds at 8-16 mph. Perhaps gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% – 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. But this could change to widespread as we draw closer. Timing of the Friday-Saturday system is questionable. It is possible Friday ends up mostly dry.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be rain on Christmas Day
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roads. Lightning.
Friday night – A chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Large temperature differences are possible over the region Saturday-Monday. This will depend on the placement of a stationary front. North of the front you can expect 40s and 50s. South of the front you can expect at least 60s.
Saturday – A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the 68-74 degree range. Very mild.
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Saturday night – A chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Sunday – A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s.
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Focus on this update will be Wednesday’s weather and then the potential for heavy rain this weekend into Monday
2. Strong to severe storms possible on Wednesday
3. A heavy rain event somewhere in the Missouri to Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys this coming weekend into early next week
Sorry for the late update
If you keep refreshing the page over the next 15-30 minutes then you might see me adding graphics. I had to travel today and I am dealing with the potential event tomorrow.
I want everyone to pay attention to changing weather conditions on Wednesday and then again this coming weekend.
Radars WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday’s Forecast
A line of thunderstorms should approach our region on Wednesday morning. This line will form over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas late Tuesday night. It will then spread eastward into our local area. This line of storms could produce some damaging winds. Small chance for some hail, as well. And, I can’t completely rule out isolated tornadoes. This first round might be a bit elevated. That means a lower risk for tornadoes. Typically elevated thunderstorms produce gusty winds and some hail.
Bottom line: Thunderstorms will move into southeast Missouri tomorrow morning. The storms will then spread eastward. A few of these storms could be severe.
Then, Wednesday afternoon I am expecting severe storms to develop over western Tennessee and spread northeast into Kentucky. There remains some questions on the exact placement of these storms. These are the storms that are most likely to produce tornadoes. They will be moving at speeds of 60-80 mph. Very fast moving storms.
Tornado watches may be issued on Wednesday for parts of the area. Severe thunderstorm watches are also possible. Either way, the bottom line is that we may have some severe weather to deal with on Wednesday. Closely monitor updated forecasts. If a warning is issued then seek shelter. Storms will be moving fast. That leaves little time to seek shelter.
Extended…
Big question marks arise on the forecast for Friday. The model guidance delivers anything but confidence. The EC model ensembles show a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. The operational GFS model guidance shows that it will remain dry. The GFS ensembles indicate rain.
It does appear some showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday. And, the updated forecast (above) reflects that.
Confidence in the forecast rises a bit Friday night into next Monday night and Tuesday. A heavy rain event is developing for parts of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Data indicates rainfall totals could exceed 4″ in a band from southwest Missouri towards St Louis. And, our region could experience 1-3″ of rain. If the heaviest band shifts just a little east then we could have issues in our local area.
I can’t completely rule out severe weather on Sunday or Monday, but right now the threat appears low. I will continue to monitor and update accordingly.
Monitor updates.
There are a lot of moving parts to the upcoming 7-10 day forecast period. And, that means the possibility of forecast changes.
A few maps from weatherbell.com
The images below are one models opinion of what radar might look like tomorrow. Do not get hung up on the exact placement of features/rain/storms. Models can’t actually forecast exact placement of storms. But, they can get the general idea right. Keep that in mind.
This is the NAM model. It shows showers and thunderstorms in the region as early as 6 am on Wednesday. Other data holds it back a bit longer. We shall see.
This next map is for the 9 am hour. Again, this is just one models opinion. It does have support. Line of storms pushing through southeast Missouri. Moving east.
Moving ahead to 11 am to 12 pm
Future-cast radar (what radar might look like)
This is the 2 pm to 4 pm time frame. Again, one models opinion.
Keep an eye now on western Tennessee. This is tomorrow evening around 5 pm to 6 pm. Where do these storms form? That is the question. These could be supercells.
No snow anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
The main changes are to the extended update. Starting to have an increased amount of confidence on the rain probabilities. I adjusted some of those numbers.
Gusty winds on Wednesday.
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Monitor frequent updates as we move forward.
Heavy rain potential Friday (questionable) through next Monday (higher chances SAT-MON). Flooding possible.
Monitor watches and warnings on Wednesday. We could have some severe storms in the region.
Gusty winds likely on Wednesday.
Monitoring heavy rain potential this coming weekend into early next week.
The wild card in this forecast will be the risk for some strong or severe storms on Wednesday. Instability combined with strong wind fields suggest at least the potential for some severe weather in or near our region. Let’s keep an eye on this.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
This is a lot of rain, folks. Click image for a larger view. This is through Monday night. Potential of several inches of rain.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a TWO on Tuesday night and a THREE on Wednesday.
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Tuesday Night – Monitor updates. Some potential for storms as early as Tuesday night, but believe the severe weather threat arrives on Wednesday.
Wednesday – Some severe weather can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday – Monitor updates.
Sunday – Monitor updates.
and then for Wednesday
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
