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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday night – Cloudy. Rain developing. Windy at times. Thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times. Winds may gust between 20-30 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before midnight and then 80% late.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered then becoming widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Monday – Cloudy. Rain likely. Maybe a rumble of thunder. Especially before 2 pm. Then scattered after 2 pm. Windy, especially early in the morning.
Temperatures: Highs in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusts of 20-30 mph possible during the morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Monday night – Some clouds. Perhaps a shower before midnight and then a chance for showers after midnight. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s. Data indicates upper 30s possible over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Mainly northwest counties. Will have to see how far south the colder air can push behind our system.
Winds: Winds becoming north and northeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% eastern counties and 30% western counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Tuesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Small chance for a few showers (maybe rumble of thunder). Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the 54 to 58 degree range. Some data pops a few 60 degree readings in the area.
Winds: North winds becoming east/southeast winds. 6-12 mph. Winds could be variable at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Possibly wet roadways
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for some showers early and then showers and thunderstorms likely. Temperatures rising all night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range. Temps will rise all night and some places could be in the upper 50s to around 60 by Wednesday morning.
Winds: East/southeast at 10 mph. Winds becoming southerly and increasing to 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% early and then 60% late
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread late at night into the morning hours
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B in mind. Some showers possible. But, more likely late at night.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Not likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be heavy. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Highs from 64 to 68 degrees
Winds: South/southeast at 8-16 mph. Gusts over 25 mph likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in mind.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some heavy storms possible. Low confidence on severe weather concerns.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Gusty winds.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. Showers possible. But, ending late. Thunderstorms possible early. Things should be winding down early in the evening.
Temperatures: Lows should drop into the 40s behind a cold front. Some models hold temps a bit higher over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Winds: Southwest becoming west winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds likely early in the night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% early and then diminishing to 20% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B in mind early in the evening. Some showers may remain.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Thunder possible. Gusty winds.
Thursday – Mix of sun and clouds. Perhaps a little cooler. A chance for a shower before 8 am. Low confidence
Temperatures: Highs from 48 to 54 degrees. There is some debate on temps Thursday. Could be higher. But, let’s monitor.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Becoming more west/northwest through the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? Scattered before 7 am.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Patchy clouds. A small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows around 44-48 degrees
Winds: West at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds turning more easterly late at night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None (unless wet roadways after midnight)
Low confidence on the Christmas Day forecast into Saturday. Models are producing wild swings in the track of a new low coming out of the southwest at some point this coming weekend.
Friday – Clouds. Mild. A chance for a few showers. Maybe a rumble of thunder. Low confidence on Friday’s forecast.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s. Some data shows 70 degrees over northwest Tennessee. Very mild.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8-16 mph. Perhaps gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (but low confidence)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. But this could change to widespread as we draw closer. Timing of the Friday-Saturday system is questionable. It is possible Friday ends up mostly dry.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be precipitation on Christmas Day
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roads. The rain may hold off till Friday night. Low confidence. Thunder possible.
Friday night – A chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Saturday – A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s.
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Gusty winds and rain Sunday night/Monday. Rumble thunder.
2. On and off rain chances through just about the entire week
3. Potential for heavy storms on Wednesday
4. Watching Christmas Day into the weekend carefully as another system approaches.
5. Heavy rain event possible over the next 10 days. Monitor updates.
No rest for the weatherman this week. It will be an active and busy pattern through at least next Monday.
Let’s break it down.
First off, we have rain and some thunderstorms entering the forecast Sunday night into Monday. The best chance of rain will be tonight into Monday morning. Then scattered after that time period.
This system will also produce gusty winds. I suspect we will see some gusts above 30 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning. But, perhaps not as strong as the last two wind events. Mild temperatures tonight. As a matter of fact, temperatures may actually rise tonight.
Monday night and Tuesday will deliver more clouds with perhaps a few showers. The signal for rain during this time period isn’t as strong as other days of the week. But, a few showers possible. And, some data indicates a rumble of thunder not out of the question. Believe the better chances for thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday.
A strong system will approach our region from the southwest on Wednesday. This system will produce gusty winds, warmer temperatures, and widespread showers and locally heavy thunderstorms. I can’t rule out severe weather on Wednesday. This needs to be closely monitored. I realize it is a holiday week and many people will be busy.
This is one more great reason to subscribe to my texting service. The texting service will update you no matter where you are. And, you won’t miss an update. I know people can’t always check Facebook. Thus, the texting service will give you a heads up. This also helps support all of the weather data you see on a daily basis.
Temperatures on Tuesday night should actually rise through the night. Perhaps into the 60s! That is just amazing in December. The longevity of these warm spells has been truly stunning. Temperatures will be rising because an area of low pressure will deepen to our west. This will pull warm and moist air northward.
Expect widespread precipitation on Wednesday. Mild temperatures as the low pulls to our northwest and north. Winds on Wednesday may gust over 30 mph. Gradient winds because of the intensity of the area of low pressure and then the low level jet.
Again, some thunderstorms on Wednesday could become severe. This is one part of the forecast that needs to be closely monitored.
Thursday should be mostly dry. At this point it looks like we should see some sunshine. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for one solid dry day this week!
By Christmas the models diverge on how they handle a new storm system coming out of the southwest United States. This system has the potential to produce locally heavy rain and perhaps thunderstorms. Some of the data shows heavy thunderstorms. The only problem is that there is basically no agreement on the computer models or ensembles on how to handle the system. Some data sets hold the main low back until Sunday or Monday. Other data sets bring the low into the region on Saturday. Needless to say there could be significant forecast changes (as there have already been) for the Friday – Saturday part of this update.
I smoothed over my numbers as best as possible. I could have gone higher on the probabilities. But, this far out the certainty just is not there. That will change over the coming days.
Monitor updates this week. Changing forecasts might have some impacts on you and your family.
Some of the data indicates large rainfall totals will be possible over the next 6-10 days. Monitor updates.
Let’s look at some weather maps from the GFS model guidance.
This first map is for Monday morning. See the red L over eastern Iowa? That is the low pressure center. It is to our north. That means warm and moist air drawn northward. Lows rotate counter-clockwise. Thus, it would pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico.
Green represents rain over our region. Widespread rain. Some thunder possible.
This next map is for Tuesday at 11 am. Crossing fingers, we will be rain free.
By Tuesday evening the guidance paints a few showers returning to the region. Moving in from the south.
Notice the new low forming over southeast Colorado. The red 990 mb L.
Then we move forward to Wednesday morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms in our region. Now, this is when everything becomes a bit more interesting. Will there be enough instability for some severe weather? That is the big question mark. Widespread showers and storms would likely mean a lot of cloud cover. This will need to be monitored. If we were to have more instability on Wednesday then severe weather would occur. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Moving ahead to Wednesday at 11 am. Deep low over eastern Iowa. 985 mb. Rain and storms continue over our region.
Moving ahead to Thursday at 11 am. Rain free! The Thursday forecast should hold. All data indicates Thursday being rain free.
From Friday onward the mode guidance diverges. Low confidence on how this unfolds. The GFS shows more rain and storms entering our region on Friday night and Saturday. Let’s keep an eye on trends.
No snow anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes with this update. I continue to smooth over rain chances in the extended. Low than normal confidence on how the Friday and Saturday forecast pans out. Still plenty of time for updates. No snow or ice in the region. That is the good news.
Gusty winds on Sunday night, Monday, and Wednesday.
Strong storms can’t be ruled out on Wednesday. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Gusty winds Sunday night and Monday. More gusty winds on Wednesday. Some lightning possible on Sunday night/Monday and again on Wednesday.
We will need to monitor Wednesday’s forecast for strong storms.
The wild card in this forecast will be the timing of the rain during the week ahead! Lower than normal confidence on the extended forecast.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain or snow through Sunday.
A new storm system arrives on Sunday night and Monday. And, rain chances will likely linger into the middle next week. Fairly active pattern developing. Tough call this far out on rainfall totals for the whole week. Model guidance has not performed well when it comes to next weeks details.
Let’s look at the Sunday night and Monday rain event.
These are the totals through 6 pm on Monday evening. You can see 0.25″-0.35″ over most of the area.
Let’s look at the official map through next Sunday. Now, this is subject to a lot of changes. Storm track will be key to the additional rain after Monday. And, some of it could be quite heavy. Monitor updates. Some of the data shows a lot of rain around next Friday night – Sunday. Again, low confidence on timing of additional rain (other than Wednesday).
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE for Sunday night and Monday. Maybe a rumble of thunder.
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Sunday Night – Monday: Some thunder possible
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday – Monitor updates.
Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday – Monitor updates.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
