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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: South wind at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming south/southwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Becoming cloudy. Windy at times.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Cloudy. Rain developing. Windy at times.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times. Winds may gust between 20-30 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% before midnight and then 80% late.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered then becoming widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Monday – Cloudy. Rain likely. Especially before 2 pm. Then scattered after 2 pm. Windy, especially early in the morning.
Temperatures: Highs in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusts of 20-30 mph possible during the morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday night – Some clouds. Perhaps a shower. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s. Data indicates upper 30s possible over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Mainly northwest counties. Will have to see how far south the colder air can push behind our system.
Winds: Winds becoming north and northeast at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% eastern counties and 30% western counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Tuesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Small chance for a few showers (maybe rumble of thunder). Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the 54 to 58 degree range. Some data pops a few 60 degree readings in the area.
Winds: North winds becoming east/southeast winds. 6-12 mph. Winds could be variable at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Possibly wet roadways
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for some showers early and then showers and thunderstorms likely. Temperatures rising all night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range. Temps will rise all night and some places could be in the upper 50s to around 60 by Wednesday morning.
Winds: East/southeast at 10 mph. Winds becoming southerly and increasing to 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% early and then 60% late
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread late at night into the morning hours
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B in mind. Some showers possible. But, more likely late at night.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Not likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be heavy. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Highs from 64 to 68 degrees
Winds: South/southeast at 8-16 mph. Gusts over 25 mph likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in mind.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some heavy storms possible. Low confidence on severe weather concerns.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Gusty winds.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. Showers possible. But, ending late. Thunderstorms possible early. Things should be winding down early in the evening.
Temperatures: Lows should drop into the 40s behind a cold front. Some models hold temps a bit higher over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Winds: Southwest becoming west winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds likely early in the night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60% early and then diminishing to 20% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B in mind early in the evening. Some showers may remain.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Thunder possible. Gusty winds.
Thursday – Mix of sun and clouds. Perhaps a little cooler. A chance for a shower before 8 am. Low confidence
Temperatures: Highs from 48 to 54 degrees. There is some debate on temps Thursday. Could be higher. But, let’s monitor.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Becoming more west/northwest through the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? Scattered before 7 am.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Patchy clouds. A small chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows around 44-48 degrees
Winds: West at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds turning more easterly late at night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None (unless wet roadways after midnight)
Low confidence on the Christmas Day forecast into Saturday. Models are producing wild swings.
Friday – Clouds. Mild. A chance for showers and some thunderstorms. Low confidence on Friday’s forecast.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s. Some data shows 70 degrees over northwest Tennessee. Very mild.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8-16 mph. Perhaps gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (but low confidence)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. But this could change to widespread as we draw closer. Timing of the Friday-Saturday system is questionable. It is possible Friday ends up mostly dry.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be precipitation on Christmas Day
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roads. The rain may hold off till Friday night. Low confidence. Thunder possible.
Friday night – A chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50s
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Saturday – A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s.
Winds: South winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Sunday will deliver milder temperatures. Increasing clouds
2. Rain enters the picture on Sunday night and Monday.
3. Unsettled week ahead with on and off rain chances. We may even have some thunderstorms.
4. Christmas Day could bring thunderstorms, as well. Very active pattern.
I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend! It was a chilly Saturday over the region. Many areas remained in the 40s and a few reached the lower 50s. No precipitation in the region today.
The weather is about to change. And, not for the better.
Clouds will thicken on Sunday. By Sunday afternoon we should have mostly cloudy sky conditions over the entire region. Gusty southerly winds, as well. Those southerly winds will bring moisture back into our region by Sunday night and Monday. Rain showers should overspread the region on Sunday night. Then, the rain should exit on Monday afternoon.
After Monday the question marks begin to pile up. A series of upper level disturbances will push across the region. Each of these will cause an increase in rain chances. The tricky part of the forecast is the timing of each of these disturbances.
It appears we will have to deal with some rain showers on Tuesday. Then more on Wednesday and Wednesday night. The Wednesday system has a bit more energy to work with. And, this means that there could be some thunderstorms in the region. This will need to be monitored. Models are showing some CAPE (CAPE is basically the amount of energy available for storms). Monitor updates as we move forward.
The next question will be rainfall totals. It appears that 0.25″-0.40″ will be possible Sunday night into Monday night. Rainfall totals from Tuesday onward could vary quite a bit. Totals in excess of 1″ will be possible if the Wednesday system comes together as some of the guidance suggests.
Overall confidence in the forecast from Wednesday onward is lower than normal. The good news is that no snow or ice is in the forecast through Friday. I am watching another system around December 27th-28th. Long way off and plenty of time to monitor.
Christmas is starting to look as if it will have some showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence. Model guidance is not handling all of these fast moving systems. It should be mild with highs in the 60s. Again, lower than normal confidence on the forecast from Wednesday onward.
Let’s look at a few quick charts
These are mainly from the NAM and GFS model guidance. Green indicates rain. Blue is snow. Don’t look for snow in our region!
You can click on these maps to enlarge them.
This first one is for Sunday night. Rain showers will move into our region from the west/southwest on Sunday evening and night. Nothing major. Light showers. Rainfall totals will probably be in the 0.24″-0.40″ range. Some areas might not even reach those totals.
This next map is for Monday around 11 am. You can see showers already exiting the region. This is from the NAM guidance.
By Tuesday afternoon and evening the models are showing some additional showers in the area. Low confidence about how much coverage we will have to deal with. But, at least plan on some scattered showers in the area.
This map is for Wednesday evening. It does appear some showers and even storms will be possible on Wednesday. The coverage might end up greater than this. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Thursday and Friday are questionable. It does appear additional showers and perhaps even thunderstorms could occur Thursday night into Friday.
Like I said, this is a fast moving unsettled pattern. A lot of moving parts for the weatherman to keep up with.
This map is for Saturday. If the GFS is correct then widespread showers and maybe thunderstorms will cover the area. Long way off in this pattern for certainty.
Let me show you another model. This is for Christmas Day and next Saturday. This model keeps Friday dry and brings rain in late Friday night into Saturday.
There are several models that keep Christmas dry. Let’s keep an eye on it
This first map is for Friday afternoon. This model keeps all the precipitation to our south.
This next map is for Friday night/Saturday. Lot of rain potential. Let’s keep wathching
No snow anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
A lot of headaches in the forecast. Significant changes were made to the Wednesday-Friday forecast numbers. Numerous disturbances will push through our region over the coming 7-10 days. These disturbances will be accompanied by clouds and showers. Perhaps even thunderstorms. The timing of all of these disturbances is tricky, at best. I continue to wrestle with the probability numbers on the rain each day.
No major concerns!
No. Gusty winds possible on Sunday into Sunday night.
The wild card in this forecast will be the timing of the rain during the week ahead! Lower than normal confidence on the extended forecast.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain or snow through Sunday.
A new storm system arrives on Sunday night and Monday. And, rain chances will likely linger into the middle next week. Fairly active pattern developing. Tough call this far out on rainfall totals for the whole week. Model guidance has not performed well when it comes to next weeks details.
Let’s look at the Sunday night and Monday rain event.
These are the totals through 6 pm on Monday evening. You can see 0.25″-0.35″ over most of the area.
Let’s look at the official map through next Sunday. Now, this is subject to a lot of changes. Storm track will be key to the additional rain after Monday. And, some of it could be quite heavy. Monitor updates. Some of the data shows a lot of rain around next Friday night – Sunday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ONE for Sunday night and Monday. Maybe a rumble of thunder.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday Night – Monday: Some thunder possible
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday – Monitor updates.
Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
