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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Friday night – Mostly clear and cold. Some spots could dip colder than these readings.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22 to 26 degree range
Winds: West wind at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold.
Temperatures: Highs from 44 to 48 degrees.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds may turn more out of the south during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: West/northwest wind at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming south/southwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Becoming cloudy. Windy at times.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers. Especially after midnight on Monday morning.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%–60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Monday – Cloudy. Rain likely. Especially before 2 pm. Then scattered after 2 pm.
Temperatures: Highs in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty at times. Winds may switch out of the north during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday night – Some clouds. Perhaps a shower. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 56 to 62 degree range
Winds: North winds becoming east winds. 6-12 mph. Winds could be variable at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Possibly wet roadways
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for some showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Southeast/south at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% early and then 40%-60% late
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B in mind. Some disagreement in guidance as to precipitation coverage.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Not likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Lower than normal confidence on the forecast from Wednesday onward. Fast moving systems. Models guidance is not in agreement.
Wednesday – Cloudy. Showers likely. Thunderstorms possible. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Highs from 58 to 62 degrees
Winds: Southwest at 6-12 mph. Gusts over 20 mph likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in mind. Some disagreement in guidance as to precipitation coverage.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. Showers possible. But, ending late. Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50s
Winds: Southwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but have a plan B in mind. Some disagreement in guidance as to precipitation coverage.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roads. Thunder possible.
Thursday – Some clouds. Cooler. A chance for a shower before 8 am. Low confidence on the timing of the Christmas Eve system exiting.
Temperatures: Highs from 52 to 58
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? Scattered before 8 am.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Patchy clouds. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows around 45 degrees
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds turning more easterly
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways.
Friday – Some clouds. Mild. A chance for showers and some thunderstorms. Low confidence on Friday’s forecast.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. But this could change to widespread as we draw closer.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be precipitation on Christmas Day
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Can’t rule out storms. Monitor updates.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A decent weekend on tap for the region
2. Rain chances increase on Sunday night and Monday.
3. Unsettled for next week with several chances for rain.
We had a chilly Friday across the region. Temperatures were well below normal. Some locations did not get out of the 30s. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 48-50 degrees. The vast majority of days in December have been above normal in the temperature department. I guess we were due at least a couple of chilly days!
The weekend ahead is shaping up to be nice for December. Saturday and Sunday will be dry. By Sunday the temperatures will rise above 50 degrees! That will put us above normal, once again.
Rain enters the picture on Sunday night (especially late) and that will last into Monday. Rainfall totals with this system will likely remain below 0.50″. Somewhere in the 0.20″-0.40″ range. Perhaps eastern counties could pick up a bit more. This does not look to be a heavy rain event.
The big question then becomes the rest of the holiday week. Model guidance has not been great when it comes to the daily details. They have shown everything from severe weather outbreaks to very little rain at all. This makes everything a bit more complicated.
What I believe will happen is that our rain system will move out of the region on Monday night and Tuesday. Leaving us with small rain chances during that time period. Then on Tuesday night into Wednesday another slug of moisture should return to our area. Then that system would depart Wednesday night. This would leave Thursday dry. Low confidence this far out. But, that is how it appears to be shaping up.
Thunderstorms are possible, but still several days to go before I know for sure.
Another system could impact the region Thursday night, but confidence is still low. GFS guidance says no rain. EC shows quite a bit of rain.
Then there are some hints at another rain maker late next week. Again, low confidence because it is so far out.
There will be plenty to monitor next week for meteorologists. Whether we pick up thunder with some of this rain is also questionable. The severe weather threat continues to look small. But, I will monitor the trends in the data. There have been some data sets that indicated severe weather would be possible. But, those have been in the minority.
One thing I am not tracking is snow or ice. At least for now. Snow lovers will just have to wait a bit longer. Patience.
Have a super weekend! And, be safe.
No snow anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Continue to wrestle with the timing of the different systems next week. And, the probabilities of rain. I have held fairly steady on keeping the rain chances low for each day. I am sure there will be time periods that I will have to increase them. But, rather than go higher than necessary through the forecast period, I left them lower.
No major concerns!
No, fairly calm weather over the coming days.
The wild card in this forecast will be the timing of the rain on Sunday night. Will it arrive before midnight or after midnight. Believe most of the area will remain dry on Sunday evening. Better chances after midnight on Monday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain or snow through Sunday.
A new storm system arrives on Sunday night and Monday. And, rain chances will likely linger into the middle next week. Fairly active pattern developing. Tough call this far out on rainfall totals for the whole week. Model guidance has not performed well when it comes to next weeks details.
Let’s look at the Sunday night and Monday rain event.
These are the totals through 6 pm on Monday evening. You can see 0.25″-0.35″ over most of the area.
Beyond that time period more rain will fall. But, let’s wait a bit longer till deciding on amounts.
Models have backed off the deeper storm systems. Instead are showing lighter totals. Hopefully the guidance will start to gel into some consistency over the weekend.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for Friday-Sunday
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday Night – Monday: Some thunder possible
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday – Monitor updates.
Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
