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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Wednesday night – Some evening clouds. Then clearing late. Colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s Can’t completely rule out a few upper 20s if clouds clear out.
Winds: West/northwest wind at 8-16 mph becoming northwest at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% early over our eastern counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated over our eastern counties
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny and colder.
Temperatures: Highs in the 38 to 46 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – A few clouds. Small chance for a flurry. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s
Winds: West/northwest wind at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Increasing morning clouds and cold. Small chance for a sprinkle or flurry. Some clearing in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 38 to 44 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming more southwest/west during the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the 24 to 28 degree range
Winds: West wind at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold.
Temperatures: Highs from 44 to 48 degrees.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming more and more southwest during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: West/northwest wind at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming south/southwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Windy at times. Perhaps some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty winds possible
Sunday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Monday – Cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday night – Some clouds. Perhaps a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40s
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Cloudy. Showers possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 56 to 62 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40, but this could change. Depends on the track of the system.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Possibly wet roadways
I am watching Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for some rain, as well. Model guidance is all over the place on the timing of rain.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Colder weather for the coming days
2. Watching another system Sunday night/Monday
3. Unsettled next week
The big story in the short term will be the colder temperatures. Expect Thursday into Sunday to be quite a bit chillier than recent days. This will be because of a cold front that pushed through the region on Wednesday.
Colder air will already be filtering into the region by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Expect temperatures on Thursday to struggle into the 40s. Some data indicates high temperatures remaining in the upper 30s. Brrr! Especially considering all of the recent warm weather.
December will likely go down in the books as one of the warmer Decembers in recorded history (for the U.S. as a whole). We will have to wait awhile to see the final rankings. It has certainly not been a normal month. But, that was the forecast. Warmer than normal.
A weak system will pass through the region on Thursday night and Friday. Some clouds and a small chance for a flurry. Nothing of significance.
We could have some gusty winds on Friday and again on Sunday. Winds will be from the west/northwest. Which might be good for hunters. I know you have been waiting for northwest winds.
Here is the wind speed map for Friday afternoon. This might be a little overdone. Thinking 6-12 mph with some higher gusts. Stronger winds back in Missouri vs Illinois and Kentucky/Tennessee.
Our next weather maker will arrive on Sunday night and Monday. Winds will turn out of the south by Saturday and Sunday. This will be an indication of the next weather change.
Warmer air will shift northward on Sunday into Monday. This will be ahead of our next cold front.
Rain chances increase on Sunday night and Monday. Some question on the exact timing of rain. Some question on the amount of rainfall. Still some time to monitor and update. But, plan on shower chances increasing by Sunday night into Monday.
Another system may impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models are all over the place with the timing of this next push of moisture. I will be monitoring for some thunderstorm chances with both systems. I do not expect severe weather with the first system on Sunday night and Monday.
I will, however, be closely monitoring trends on the following system. Perhaps a bit more instability with that one.
What I am not tracking is any snow or ice threats. Next week will deliver well above normal temperatures. Once the system on the 23rd-24th departs we can expect colder air to wrap in behind the system. Typical of recent systems. We warm up ahead of the low pressure and cool down behind it. That is because low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. Warm air is pulled northward ahead of each system (when the low passes to our west/northwest). Cold air is then pulled in behind it as winds turn around to the northwest.
Rainfall amounts from Sunday night into Christmas could total greater than one inch. Again, details are still a bit murky on exact amounts. The last system appeared heavier a few days out. Then, as it approached our region, I had to lower expectations on the rainfall totals. Our western counties picked up more than one inch. Everyone else ended up with lesser amounts. Let’s keep an eye on next week.
Unsettled pattern as we push into January. Very active, at least to start.
Let me show you a few maps.
The models are all over the place with timing of the Christmas system and possibly one after that. The guidance ranges from the 23rd-25th for a rain maker. I will need to fine tune next weeks forecast. The bottom line is that unsettled weather is likely next week into the following week. Busy.
Here is the GFS guidance for Sunday night and Monday morning. The first image is for 11 pm on Sunday night. The second image is for 6 am on Monday morning. Some showers possible.
Okay, that is system one.
Here is system two for Tuesday. Low confidence on rain showers Tuesday.
Here is system three. This is the one that the guidance just can’t quite zero in on. Perhaps it arrives on the 23rd. Other data indicates the 24th.
None of this indicates snow. They all indicate rain.
Yet another system shows up around the 27th or 28th. This is a busy weather pattern.
Let me show you the possible temperature anomalies for the last ten days of December. This is averaged out over those ten days. Warmth!
But, look at January. Perhaps we finally turn colder. The CFS indicates much of the southern United States will have colder than normal temperatures. This is averaged over a one month period. That could mean a roller-coaster pattern for temperatures.
No snow anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated. Small chance for a flurry Thursday night
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes.
No major concerns!
No, fairly calm weather over the coming days.
The wild card, for this edition of WeatherTalk, will be high temperatures on Thursday and Friday. Some of the data indicates we may remain in the upper 30s.
Frost possible Thursday-Sunday morning. Freeze also possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain or snow through Sunday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for Thursday-Saturday.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday Night – Monday: Some thunder possible
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
