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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Tuesday night – Increasing clouds. A chance for a shower after 3 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Winds: Southeast wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% late
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? No serious impacts
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday – Some clouds. A chance for a shower. Rumble of thunder possible. Morning clouds likely then decreasing clouds from west to east in the afternoon. Clouds and a few showers may linger over our eastern counties a bit longer.
Temperatures: Highs in the 55 to 60 degree range
Winds: South/southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Winds becoming more west/southwest towards evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some rain possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Spotty wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Wednesday night – Some clouds. Colder. Small chance for evening precipitation.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: West/northwest wind at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly cloudy and colder.
Temperatures: Highs in the 44 to 48 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – A few clouds. Small chance for a flurry. Cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s
Winds: West/northwest wind at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Increasing clouds and cold. Small chance for a sprinkle or flurry. Morning clouds more likely than afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the 38 to 44 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming more southwest/west during the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 20s
Winds: West wind at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny and cold. Small chance for a sprinkle or flurry.
Temperatures: Highs from 44 to 48 degrees.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming more and more southwest during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
Winds: West/northwest wind at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming south/southwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Mostly sunny. Windy at times. Perhaps some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the 45-50 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None expected
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Gusty winds possible
A good chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. Still several days to work on the timing of the system.
Models today have started to indicate that the best chance of showers and storms could occur on December 23rd and 24th vs 24th and 25th. This will need to be monitored.
December 23rd-25th: Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will likely deliver clouds. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Have to see the timing of the front. Whether Christmas Eve ends up more wet than Christmas Day is still a question. Very mild ahead of the front. Temperatures into the 60s one of those days. Temperatures colder behind the front. Small chance for flurries on the back side of the system. No measurable snow expected.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cold front arrives on Wednesday
2. Much colder Thursday-Sunday
3. Another rain maker Sunday night – Monday
4. Christmas Eve or Day storm system
The big story in the short range part of the forecast will be colder air moving into our region starting Wednesday night and lasting into Sunday.
We have been spoiled, over the last few weeks, with a very mild December. No doubt one of the warmer December’s on record. But, all good things much come to an end. Even if just temporarily!
A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday. A few sprinkles or showers will be possible along the front. Nothing major. You can see the GFS depiction of the front on the graphic below. See the light green colors from Wisconsin all the way to Louisiana? That is the location of the cold front and light rain along it. The blue represents snow over parts of the Dakota’s and Minnesota.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Rainfall totals from this system will be a trace to less than 0.10″. Many will remain dry. No major concerns.
Here is the NAM guidance from weatherbell.com You can see a few spotty showers on Wednesday morning. The front may be slow to exit over our eastern counties. A few showers may linger into the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures by Thursday will struggle to get out of the 40s for daytime highs. Lows on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning should dip into the 20s. Chilly weather, but nothing unusual. It will feel colder because of our recent warm weather.
Our next cold front arrives Sunday night into Monday. An area of low pressure will develop over Kansas and Oklahoma. The low will push into Iowa by early Monday morning. That places us on the warm side of the system. Thus, you guessed it, more rain will occur for our region. Some thunder possible. Right now it does not appear that severe weather will be a concern on Monday. Rainfall totals of 0.25″-.050″ will be possible. Still a bit early for specific details. But, it does appear to be moving along.
This is the GFS guidance below. You can see the low over Iowa early Monday morning. That would be the red L. You can see all the green over our region. That represents rain. Tight isobars. We may have to deal with gusty winds on Sunday and Monday.
We should dry out by Monday night or Tuesday. But, perhaps not for long.
The charts are showing yet another system for next Wednesday-Thursday. That would take us to December 23rd and 24th.
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle and then move northeast. The GFS is picking up on some rain showers as early as Wednesday. We will see if that happens. But, by Thursday rain chances should increase quite a bit. Perhaps thunderstorms, as well.
This first map is for the lunch hour next Wednesday (the 23rd). You can see some green over our region. Not sure if we see rain on Wednesday. Much of this will depend on the track of the area of low pressure and timing of the warm front.
You can see by 11 pm on Wednesday night that the low has moved into eastern Kansas. Fairly strong low. We will have to watch for thunderstorms with this one. Still a bit early to know if strong weather will occur. Gusty winds again possible. Tight pressure gradient. See the solid lines that circle the red L? Those represent isobars. Equal lines of pressure. The tighter they are packed together the stronger the winds. Notice the heavy snow north and west of the area of low pressure. The blue colors.
Here is the PWAT value chart (below). PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. We are seeing numbers of 1 to 1.4 with the Christmas Eve storm. That is quite a bit of moisture. Heavy rain is a possibility.
You can see the low over eastern Iowa on Christmas Eve morning. Again, the timing of this is a bit suspect this far out. But, I just want to give you a general idea. Rain is a good bet around the holidays.
This next map is for Christmas Eve. The low has moved into Iowa. Showers and storms in our region. But, if this front moves quick enough we would dry out on Christmas Day. Something to monitor.
The GFS guidance (the above maps) shows us drying out on Christmas Day. Again, this will depend on the speed of the system. Since this is still days away there could be timing changes. Some model guidance holds the front off until Christmas Eve (night) and Christmas Day. Keep this in mind if you have travel plans. Wet roadways and gusty winds could be an issue for holiday travelers.
Finally, let me show you one more map. This is the GFS map for December 28th. Yet, another storm systems to impact our region. If this model is correct, that is. The GFS shows yet another deep area of low pressure over eastern Kansas. What a parade of storms. This one keeps us on the warm side, as well.
Long way off for that one. But, I thought it was interesting.
We are in a very active pattern. This is a cycle. The long range cycle has shown 2-3 weeks of active weather. Then 2-3 weeks of slow weather. If this keeps up into spring then we will have some busy periods of severe weather to deal with.
No snow anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated. Small chance for a flurry Thursday night
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated
No major changes.
No major concerns! We are gliding through December.
No. Fairly calm week ahead of us.
The wild card in this forecast will be whether a few showers occur along a front on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Perhaps a few sprinkles/light showers.
Frost possible Thursday-Sunday morning. Freeze also possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain or snow through Sunday.
I am watching for a few light showers on Wednesday. Rainfall totals would be light. Less than 0.10″. Many areas won’t pick up measurable rainfall.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for Wednesday-Saturday.
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday Night – Monday: Some thunder possible
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
