Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 15, 2015: Colder air by later this week.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

 

Monday night –  Just a few clouds possible.  Otherwise, cool.
Temperatures:  Lows in the  upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds:  West/southwest wind at 5-15 mph early.  Winds becoming south/southwest at 0-5 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected
?  None

 

Tuesday –  Some clouds possible over the northern half of the region.  Otherwise quite a bit of sun elsewhere.  Mild for December.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 56 to 62 degree rangeCooler readings where clouds linger the longest.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?   None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plansNo
Is severe weather expected?
No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Tuesday night –  A few patchy clouds.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Winds:  Southeast wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 20%
Coverage of precipitation
?  Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected
?  No serious impacts

 

Wednesday –  Some clouds.  A chance for a shower.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 55 to 60 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation?   Isolated.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plansNo
Is severe weather expected?
No
What impact is expected?  Spotty wet roadways perhaps

 

Wednesday night –  Some clouds.  Colder.   Small chance for evening precipitation.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds:  West/northwest wind at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected
?  None

 

Thursday –  Partly cloudy and colder.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 44 to 48 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?   None expected

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plansNo
Is severe weather expected?
No
What impact is expected?  None

 

Thursday night –  Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
Winds:  West/northwest wind at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation
?  None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected
?  None

 

Friday –  Partly sunny and cold.  Small chance for a sprinkle or flurry.
Temperatures:  Highs in the 38 to 44 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  0%
Coverage of precipitation?   None expected

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plansNo
Is severe weather expected?
No
What impact is expected?  None

Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be mostly dry and cold.  Highs in the 40s with lows in the 20s.
Gusty winds possible Sunday and Monday.  More rain likely around Tuesday and again Christmas Day.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  A decent Tuesday for the region.  Northern counties may have some clouds to deal with.
2.  Cold front arrives on Wednesday
3.  Colder air Thursday-Sunday
4.  Watching December 21st-22nd.  Watching December 24th-25th.

Our wind event will wind down on Monday evening and night.  Winds were expected to gust into the 35-45 mph range on Sunday into Monday.  And, higher gusts were possible.  We had just that.  Widespread 40-50 mph winds.  Some of the winds caused trees to topple, branches to fall, and spotty power outages.  I am sure there were quite a few holiday decorations ruined, as well.

A calmer Tuesday will prevail over the region.  More above normal temperatures.  But, colder air will be knocking on the door.

One thing to watch on Tuesday will be cloud cover.  Some guidance indicates that clouds may stick around over the northern half of our region.  If that were to happen then temperatures would be cooler north vs south.  Keep this in mind.

A cold front will sweep through the region on Wednesday.  A few spotty sprinkles or showers might accompany the front.  But, widespread rain is not likely.  Rainfall totals, for those who receive rain, would be less than 0.10″.

The big story will be the colder air behind the front.  Expect temperatures to run at or below normal by Thursday-Sunday.  This will mean high temperatures possibly remaining in the 40s.  Low temperatures in the 20s and 30s.  Nothing extreme.  But, it will certainly feel a lot colder than recent weeks.

I continue to monitor two more storm systems.  Both appear to be rain makers.

One system around the 21st-23rd.  Another system around the 24th-26th.  Let’s keep an eye on both of them.

Much above normal temperatures are possible as we push towards Christmas.

Look at these Christmas Day forecast temperature anomalies.  Wow.  WELL above normal temperatures.  Could we see record warmth around Christmas?  Possibly.  Definitely above normal.  Will have to see if severe weather is a concern.  I can remember one Christmas Eve in the 1980s were we had tornado watches and warnings.

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Analog forecasting shows the potential for a significant rain event around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  The analogs also show the potential for heavy storms.  Long way off for details.  But, I will be watching.

This map, from the CIPS analog site, shows very high odds for above normal temperatures.  This is centered on Christmas Day.

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The site also shows the potential for a significant rain event around Christmas Day.  You can see a bulls-eye of 2.5″ over south central Missouri.

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Then the severe weather analogs for that day.  Some colors indicated.  Long way out for forecasting severe weather.  It is something I will be monitoring closely.

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Let’s look at the high and low temperature forecasts for the coming days.  Lows on Tuesday and Wednesday morning will be fairly mild for this time of the year.  Mostly in the 40s.

Here are the Tuesday afternoon high temperatures

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Here are the Wednesday afternoon high temperatures

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Here are the Thursday morning low temperatures

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Here are the Thursday afternoon high temperatures

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Here are the Friday morning low temperatures

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Friday high temperatures

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Saturday morning low temperatures

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Saturday afternoon high temperatures

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Sunday morning low temperatures

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And, finally Sunday’s high temperature map

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winterstorm

No snow anticipated.

 

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Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.

 

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No major changes.

 

whatamiconcered

No major concerns!  We are gliding through December.

 

willineedtotakeaction

No. Fairly calm week ahead of us.

 

wildcard

The wild card in this forecast will be whether a few showers occur along a front on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Overall, the chance appears fairly small.  Perhaps a few sprinkles/light showers.

 

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Frost possible Thursday or Friday.  Much colder air returns to the region.  Nothing extreme, but closer to normal readings.

rainfallforecast

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No significant rain or snow through Sunday.

I am watching for a few light showers on Wednesday.  Rainfall totals would be light.  Less than 0.10″.  Many areas won’t pick up measurable rainfall.

 

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for Tuesday-Saturday  Some gusty winds possible with showers and storms.

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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

levelnostorms

12345r

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

 

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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

For watches and warnings click the image below.  Then, zoom into your local area.

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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