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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, at times. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Quite a few clouds. A 20% chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Cloudy. A chance for an isolated shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s
Winds: South at 6-12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. Very mild with new record high temperatures. A chance for a shower. Maybe a thunderstorm (low confidence on thunderstorm chances)
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60s to even around 70
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Saturday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58 to 62 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early and then becoming more widespread late
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Windy at times.
Sunday – Cloudy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s ahead of the front.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30+ mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%-90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread as the day wears on.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. Heavy rain possible. Strong and gusty winds.
Sunday night – Cloudy. Windy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s (perhaps a bit lower temperatures if the front pushes through quickly)
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30+ mph. Winds may turn around to the west/northwest after 3 am on Monday morning.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Possibly. Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. Strong and gusty winds.
Monday – Cloudy. Perhaps some morning showers. Windy at times. Decreasing clouds possible later in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 50s. Temperatures might not rise much on Monday
Winds: West/northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early in the morning. Decreasing chances as the day wears on.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early in the morning
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways in the morning.
Monday night – Mostly clear and colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30s
Winds: West/southwest wind at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 50s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Some clouds possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Winds: West/southwest wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Some clouds. Small chance for precipitation.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 40s
Winds: West/northwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated if any at all.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Some clouds. Small chance for precipitation.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 30s
Winds: Northwest wind at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Cloudy. A 30% chance for rain or snow. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Spotty
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Low chance
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible if precipitation does occur. Low confidence.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Fairly calm Thursday and Friday
2. Southerly winds will increase moisture
3. A few spotty light showers possible on Friday into Saturday morning
4. Significant rain producer in the cards for Saturday night into Sunday night.
Well, our amazingly nice weather continues. This has been some December. About a month or so ago I was thinking that December might be colder than normal. Then I changed my forecast to warmer than normal. All signs started to show more and more warmth. But, this is just crazy. Especially the longevity of the warm spell.
The warm temperatures will continue into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday! There are some signals for a cold snap the week of Christmas. But, it is a long shot. I will be monitoring the trends in the data.
Of course, all good things must come to an end. At least briefly. We have rain and perhaps some thunderstorms in the forecast.
Meteorologists in our region have been struggling with the timing of the main rain band. The model guidance has not exactly been helpful. One of the reasons (over the past few days) for this is that the system had not come onshore yet. That is a problem for model guidance. Once a system is fully sampled then the models tend to move towards some agreement on how everything will unfold.
Right now it appears that some showers will be possible as early as Friday and Friday night. Then, on Saturday, shower chances should increase from southwest to northeast. Scattered showers. It does not appear that Saturday morning or early afternoon will produce much in the way of appreciable precipitation. But, expect some showers on radar.
The heavier rain may hold off until Saturday night into Sunday night.
Locally heavy rain and gusty winds are a good bet with this system. The strongest winds will occur with the cold front on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. It is at this time that gradient winds could gust over 30 mph. Gradient winds are caused by a tight pressure gradient. If you have a home barometer you will notice that it will be falling over the coming days. A tight pressure gradient equals strong and gusty winds. Gradient winds are not associated with thunderstorms.
Here is the weather map for Sunday night. You can see the area of low pressure over Indiana. See those lines? Those are isobars. Equal lines of barometric pressure. The tighter they are packed together, the stronger the winds.
Winds aloft with this system are going to be quite strong. A few thousand feet above us the winds will be gusting over 60 mph. If thunderstorms do develop then they could produce strong winds, as well. What tends to happen is that thunderstorms bring down some of those gustier winds from aloft.
The severe weather risk with this system does not appear great. But, perhaps it isn’t zero. Let’s continue to monitor the event. I believe areas to our south stand a better chance of a few severe thunderstorms. Alabama, Mississippi, and perhaps Georgia.
Rain will come to an end on Monday morning. That will leave us dry for Monday into Wednesday.
I am not tracking any snow systems. There are several precipitation chances between now and Christmas. Whether one can produce frozen precipitation in the Missouri or Ohio Valleys is unknown. I do suspect one or more of them will produce snow somewhere in those regions. Perhaps to our north? We shall see.
Let’s look at a few weather maps concerning the weekend rain maker.
Let’s first look at Saturday afternoon. You can see few splotches of green over our region. A few showers are possible on Saturday. Notice the area of low pressure back in the Texas Panhandle. That will push northeast on Saturday night and Sunday. This will drop a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward.
You can click all of these images for a larger view.
Let me zoom in a bit on Saturday. This image is from weatherbell.com and it is the NAM model guidance. You can see some patches of green over our region. Scattered showers.
Moving ahead to Sunday morning at 6 am. This is the previous six hour rainfall. The colors represent rainfall totals. You can see the rain shield moving into the western half of our region between midnight and 6 am on Sunday. Assuming this model is correct on the speed of the front.
See the low over western Arkansas? The track of the low is important. If it tracks to our west and north then our thunderstorm chances increase a bit. This will need to be monitored.
Then let’s look at the noon hour on Sunday. Between 6 am and noon on Sunday. This is the rainfall during that time frame. You can see some locally heavy rain over our region on Sunday morning. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms. Again, this will need to be monitored.
Then the low pushes towards St Louis by Sunday afternoon. Rain, some of it heavy, continues over our region. Some places could pick up more than two inches of rain.
Then by 11 pm on Sunday night the low is pulling into northern Indiana. See the tight lines? Those are isobars. Tight isobars equal strong winds. Expect strong winds on Sunday into Monday morning. Gusts over 30 mph likely. These are called gradient winds.
Then by 6 am on Monday morning the low is over Michigan. Some wrap around precipitation in our region. Temperatures on Monday might not recover much with a strong northwest flow. The area of low pressure rotates counter-clockwise. Thus, it pulls moisture northward ahead of it and then wraps colder air in behind it. See the blue? That is snow over parts of Iowa and Michigan.
Finally, let’s look at the 11 am time frame on Monday. The low is moving into Canada. Precipitation has ended in our region.
I expect most of the rain to be over by Sunday night (perhaps before 11 pm). Some lingering showers possible between 11 pm Sunday night and 6 am on Monday morning.
Here is the GFS rainfall totals. You can see some patches of 3″ over southeast Missouri. Click the image for a larger view.
Wind fields are strong. Let’s look at the 850 mb winds. This is 5000′ above the surface of the planet. Very strong wind fields. Whether some of the storms can tap into these wind fields is questionable. At the very least we can expect some gusty winds on Sunday into Monday morning.
Looking ahead to the week of Christmas. This is the map for the 22nd of December. See the new storm forming to our west? The big question is where does it go from there. Rain or snow for parts of the Missouri and Ohio Valley will be a good bet somewhere between December 21st and December 25th.
As I always say, let’s keep an eye on it!
No snow anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes in this outlook. I continue to fine tune the timing of the weekend storm system.
Watching thunderstorm chances for Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps some locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Monitor updates.
Not through Friday.
The wild card in this forecast will be the weekend storm system. The timing of the main rain shield is the main concern. Some of the model guidance brings the rain into the region on Saturday afternoon and evening. Other guidance holds it off until Sunday. I believe Saturday night into Sunday afternoon is the most likely scenario.
No significant frost or freeze in the current forecast.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A few showers will be possible on Friday into Friday night. Right now those showers are expected to be light. less than 0.10″ of rainfall.
A heavier rain event is unfolding for Saturday into Sunday night. The main rain shield will likely move over our region late Saturday night and on Sunday. The system may last into Sunday night. This will need to be monitored.
One to two inches of rain appears possible with this system.
Here is the latest official rainfall forecast from the WPC. Click image from weatherbell.com to enlarge
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Thursday and Friday. I will be monitoring Saturday and Sunday for a few storms.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible. Monitor updates.
Sunday: Monitor updates.
Monday: Monitor updates for some potential of storms before 3 am on Monday. Timing of the front remains a bit questionable. Believe best chance of storms could be on Saturday/Sunday.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For watches and warnings click the image below. Then, zoom into your local area.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
