We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
TORNADO SHELTERS! Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
.
August 7, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:57 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance for an isolated storms over southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
August 8, 2016
Monday – Quite a bit of sun. Warm.
What impact is expected? Small chance for storms over western parts of southeast Missouri. Lightning would be the main concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:53 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 11:37 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A small chance for showers over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. A small chance for a shower over towards Poplar Bluff. Otherwise, dry.
What impact is expected? Maybe an isolated storm over western parts of southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
August 9, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorm possible (east and southeastern part of the area). Coverage of storms might increase a bit over western Kentucky and Tennessee. That would be in response to a tropical system approaching the Tennessee Valley from the Gulf Coast. Mostly east of LBL. Another chance for thunderstorms near Poplar Bluff and the Ozarks of Missouri.
What impact is expected? Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered over our far eastern counties (LBL towards Owensboro). Perhaps scattered over our far western counties in southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:52 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Most likely high to very high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:47 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
August 10, 2016
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. Best chances might be over western Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:51 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 1:26 p.m. and moonset will be at — First quarter
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. An evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
August 11, 2016
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for scattered thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-92 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:49 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 2:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
August 12, 2016
Friday – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-92 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:48 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 3:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:00 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
August 13, 2016
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:43 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
.
August 14, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Lot of moving parts to the forecast
- Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise this week
We have a lot going on in the weather department over the next seven to ten days. I will try to break it down.
I am tracking a disturbance over Kansas and Missouri, a tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico, and a cold front moving into the region from the northwest.
Most of the area will remain dry today into Monday night. Our far western counties could have some thunderstorms tonight into Monday night. That would include Potosi, Missouri towards Poplar Bluff, Missouri.
A tropical disturbance along the Gulf of Mexico will slowly spread moisture north and west into our region. This will begin on Tuesday and last into the rest of the week. There remains some question as to how far north and west the system will track. I have introduced rain chances on Tuesday for western Kentucky and Tennessee. Further north and west should monitor updates.
Temperatures and dew points will start to rise Tuesday into Friday. It will become more humid outside. This will also lead to a chance for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night into the weekend. I have placed 30%-40% thunderstorm chances into the forecast from Tuesday onward. Again, Tuesdays activity might be confined to western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Highs this week will mostly be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.
A cold front will move int our region on Friday night into the weekend. This front will bump into the warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm chances across our entire area. Some of the rain could be heavy. We will need to monitor for strong storms, as well. Right now the severe weather risk looks minimal. Same as recent weeks.
PWAT values will be on the rise this week. PWAT is a great way to measure moisture in the atmosphere. We have been experiencing PWAT values of 2″-2.4″ over the past few weeks. This is why we have had such heavy rainfall totals. The high PWAT values will return this week. Any storms that develop could potentially drop 1″-3″ of rain per hour. Same as recent weeks. Flash flooding will be a concern. Monitor updates.
I will be on vacation from August 10th through August 19th. I will keep everything updated, but perhaps a little less content.
How much rain is forecast over the coming days?
We have mostly dry weather for the next day or so. I will be watching the Poplar Bluff to Potosi, Missouri area. There westward could have some showers and storms over the next 24-48 hours. Precipitation chances increase through the week. I am watching a tropical system to our southeast.
Here are the rain totals through Wednesday afternoon.
Notice how the best chances are over our eastern counties and far western counties. Most of us will be in between systems.
Here are the rain totals from now through next Sunday. Much of this falls on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday as a cold front enters our region.
Monday morning low temperature map (temperatures over the coming days will vary based on clouds)
Click images for a larger view
Monday high temperature forecast
Tuesday morning low temperature map
Tuesday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
.
Sunday night and Monday: Only small thunderstorm chances from Potosi, Missouri towards Poplar Bluff, Missouri
Monday night and Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few scattered storms are possible.
Tuesday night -Friday: Increasing chances for scattered thunderstorms. A few storms could produce strong winds.
.
.
No major changes in this forecast package.
.
.
No major concerns.
.
.
Monitor radars in case a storm develops. Lightning being the main issue.
.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
..
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
