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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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August 6, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:55 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:11 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Saturday Night – A few clouds. Thunderstorms should be ending from north to south.
What impact is expected? Lightning with any storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming northerly.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% over our southern and southwestern counties. Northern counties will dry out.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous early in the evening
Is severe weather expected? Storms could produce strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 7, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Very small chance for a storm over southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-88 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Winds variable at times in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered. Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:57 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance for an isolated storms over southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 8, 2016
Monday – Quite a bit of sun. Warm.
What impact is expected? Small chance for storms over western parts of southeast Missouri. Lightning would be the main concern.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:53 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 11:37 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Monday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Maybe an isolated storm over western parts of southeast Missouri.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 9, 2016
Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorm possible (east and southeastern part of the area). Coverage of storms might increase a bit over western Kentucky and Tennessee. That would be in response to a tropical system approaching the Tennessee Valley from the Gulf Coast. Mostly east of LBL.
What impact is expected? Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered over our far eastern counties (LBL towards Owensboro).
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:52 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Most likely high to very high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:47 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 10, 2016
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible. Best chances might be over western Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:51 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 1:26 p.m. and moonset will be at — First quarter
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. An evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 11, 2016
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for scattered thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-92 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:49 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 2:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 12, 2016
Friday – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-92 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:48 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 3:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:00 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 13, 2016
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:43 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 14, 2016
Sunday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
More information on the UV index. Click here.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Storms coming to an end
- Nicer air mass on Sunday and Sunday night.
Short, but sweet update today.
A cold front is moving through the area. The front will clear the area on Saturday night. This should bring an end to the shower and thunderstorm chances. Finally. At least for a couple of days.
It will be cooler and less humid behind this front. Can I hear some cheers?
Look at the dew points from Saturday to Sunday. The first map is Saturday. Muggy still over parts of the region. Look at the second map. Sharp drop in dew points. Sunday should feel a lot better outside.
Sunday (below)
Storms will end from north to south on Saturday night. Sunday should be dry. There is a small chance for a couple of storms on Monday over southeast Missouri and perhaps western Tennessee. Most of the area will remain dry.
A more humid air mass returns for Tuesday into much of next week. Some small thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Friday. Overall, it looks like we might remain mostly dry next week. Let’s hope. We need a break. I know the weatherman does!
A stronger cold front is possible August 13th-16th.
I am monitoring a potential tropical system after August 8th. Could be mostly a heavy rain type event. Heavy rain along its path. EC is showing that system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. These are 12 hour rainfall totals ending on Saturday, August 13th. See the mass over Mississippi, Alabama, Florida? Let’s keep a close eye on this.
How much rain is forecast over the coming days?
Most of the rain will come to an end on Saturday night. Mostly dry Sunday into Monday. Isolated storm possible over Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee Sunday night and Monday. I believe most of the region will remain dry.
Sunday morning low temperature map (temperatures over the coming days will vary based on clouds)
Click images for a larger view
Sunday high temperature forecast
Monday morning low temperature map
Monday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night and Sunday: Storms ending from north to south on Saturday night. Lightning and gusty winds are the main concern. Heavy downpours. On Sunday our rain chances should be confined to the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. It might even remain dry there, as well.
Sunday night and Monday: Perhaps an isolated storm over far southern parts of Missouri and western Tennessee. Most areas should remain dry. Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
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No major changes in this forecast package.
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No major concerns. Perhaps lightning is a concern in a few spots.
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Monitor radars in case a storm develops. Lightning being the main issue.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
