April 7, 2019: Storm update.

2 PM update
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Keeping an eye on the green box zone between 4 PM and 8 PM for new thunderstorm development. Storms would then move east and northeast. Some of the storms could be intense with hail and wind.

The Missouri Bootheel into parts of western Kentucky and western Tennessee will continue to have on/off showers and storms this afternoon (see live radars for that).

The rest of the area will have to monitor for new storm development later tonight as a stronger impulse moves into the area.

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Today’s focus will be on the risk of strong to severe storms over the coming days.

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Today: Yes. Thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night could be intense. A few storms could become severe. There remain questions about coverage and instability. Confidence in storms producing quarter size hail or larger and/or 60 mph wind gusts is low. There is a non-zero tornado risk, as well. Low-end risk.
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Tomorrow: No. Lightning is possible.

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Today through Tuesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today into Monday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. Some storms could be severe today and tonight. The main concern is hail and strong winds.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Wednesday through Saturday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible on Thursday/Thursday evening.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. A cold front will push through the region. If we have enough moisture return then storms could be severe.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 7, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Windy. Warm. Temps will vary based on clouds and rain. A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois may be dry today. Storms may develop in those areas this afternoon. Extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, western Tennessee, and the Missouri Bootheel will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon hours. A few storms could be intense with strong winds and hail. A low-end tornado risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 72° to 76° NW TN 72° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Monitor the risk of severe storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B but not cancel. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate (will vary based on clouds)
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. The greatest coverage may be late tonight. Locally heavy rain is possible. Some storms could be intense. Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% to 50% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 40% to 50% NW TN 40% to 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Greatest coverage may be late tonight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce hail and high winds. The tornado risk is low. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel. I would monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 7:23 PM
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:47 PM

April 8, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will taper as we move through the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 72° to 75° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable winds becoming north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% to 50% Southeast MO 40% to 50% IL 40% to 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% to 50% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp early in the day).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel. I would monitor radars and updates. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Light north winds at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:24 PM
Moonrise: 8:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:50 PM

April 9, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A few passing clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 72° to 76° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Variable winds becoming north and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Patchy fog is again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 7:25 PM
Moonrise: 9:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:52 PM

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Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. Windy. Highs in the middle to upper 70’s. Lows in the upper 50’s. South at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph

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Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Windy. A chance of a thunderstorm during the afternoon. Mild. Highs in the lower to middle 70’s. Lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s. South and southwest winds at 25 to 40 mph. Winds becoming west overnight. Gusty.

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Friday: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Monitor the risk of frost Friday night if winds calm down. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s. Lows in the middle 30’s. West and northwest at 10 to 20. Gusty.

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast
(See the daily numbers above)

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Greatest coverage into the early afternoon will be from the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. Later this afternoon some storms may develop in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Some storms today could produce strong winds and hail. There is a low-end severe thunderstorm risk. There remain questions about how unstable the atmosphere will become later today and tonight. Monitor updates. A few warnings can’t be ruled out. The tornado risk is non-zero. Low.

Tuesday through Saturday: Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday (prob afternoon). Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Thunderstorms today into Monday.
Much warmer Tuesday into Thursday.
A strong cold front arrives on Thursday afternoon and night. Some storms are possible. Much cooler behind the front.
Chilly Thursday and Friday night. I am monitoring the frost risk. Winds may be too strong for frost Thursday night.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major changes in the going forecast.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

Yes. Thunderstorms are possible today tonight. A few of the storms could be quite intense with strong winds and hail. Lightning, of course. Locally heavy downpours where storms occur. A few storms could become severe. Monitor updates.

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Forecast discussion.

Today into tonight.

Radars

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

Today and tonight.

There is a low-end severe weather risk into tonight. A few reports of high winds and hail are possible. Lightning, of course. Locally heavy downpours. The tornado risk is non-zero. Low.

As of 10 AM, showers and locally heavy thunderstorms dot the radar across the Missouri Bootheel into extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.

The greatest coverage has been across the southern half of the region.

Much of today may be dry across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If the clouds clear then instability will increase. CAPE will increase. CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to tap into.

If storms redevelop this afternoon then they could be intense.

My greatest concern is across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late this afternoon into this evening. This is the time-frame where the atmosphere will be the most unstable.

The trigger, however, for storms this afternoon is weak.

There is the possibility that little or no thunderstorm activity develops until this evening and tonight (across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois). Tonight is when a stronger trigger arrives.

The best advice today is to go about your business and monitor updates and radars.

I will send out app/text messages if necessary.

See future-cast radars below.

Monday into Monday night:

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, as well. This will occur as a cold front moves across the region.

The precipitation will end by Monday night.

Tuesday into Thursday morning will be dry. Much warmer, as well.

Wednesday into Friday:

A powerful winter storm will take shape by Wednesday night and Thursday well to our west and north.

A deep area of low pressure will develop in the Central Plains. That low will move northeast into the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes.

The system will drag a cold front through our region with much cooler air behind it.

Here is that system depicted by the GFS model.

There are questions about quality moisture return.

This is a deep low and we should see at least some moisture return. Monitor updates. Some storms could be intense.

The colors represent precipitation.

You can see the line of showers and thunderstorms developing over our region on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Blue is snow (to our north). Green and yellow are showers and thunderstorms.

Click to enlarge.

Cooler by the end of the week:

I am monitoring the risk of frost by Friday or Saturday morning. It may be too windy on Friday morning for frost to form. Winds would be weaker on Friday night/Saturday morning.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Here are some of the forecast models for today and tonight.

Notice how portions of the region remain dry for most of today? That is a good possibility.

We will need to wait until a trigger arrives in order for new storms to form. This is especially true across much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

If storms to form they could be locally intense.

The Hrrr guidance.

Timestamp upper left.

The NAM 3K model

The lower resolution NAM model

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

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WeatherBrains Episode 689

Tonight’s WeatherBrains is a special show regarding the NWS’s Hazard Simplification Program or “Haz Simp”. This program has been around for a couple of years and is designed to potentially redesign and reinvigorate the National Weather Service Watch/Warning/Advisory system.

Our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a Social Science Researcher and Project Manager for Haz Simp along with Eli Jacks of the NWS. Her background is in meteorology, but her PhD program is interdisciplinary with a focus on sociology of disasters and risk communication. Danielle Nagele, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Guest Panelist this week is soon-to-be graduating meteorology student from the University of Oklahoma. Jordan Overton, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: