Saturday, April 6, 2019 Update for everyone.

1 PM update

Here is the latest Hrrr model future-cast radar.

Notice, this is not one line of storms and you are finished. We could have off and on thunderstorms tonight into Sunday night.

Tonight’s storms could produce dime to nickel size hail, lightning, and heavy rain. Isolated severe weather risk tonight.

Sunday’s storms could produce damaging wind and large hail. There is a non-zero tornado risk.

Hrrr future-cast radar

This is one model’s opinion. Don’t take it for specifics as much as the general idea. Several rounds of storms are possible on Sunday.

Timestamp upper left

THE ABBREVIATED BLOG IS FREE FOR EVERYONE TODAY

Today’s update won’t have all the value-added long range graphics and other.

Today’s focus will be on the risk of strong to severe storms over the coming days.

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $4000.00. Your $5 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.

The $5 will allow you to register up to seven phones!

For $5 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed messages from me to you. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.

Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
Long-range weather videos
Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
Monthly outlooks.
Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Would you like to subscribe? Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

Storm tracking tools. Radars, lightning, satellite. (I moved this to the bottom)
Go to today’s forecast
Go to the graphic-cast
Go to the severe weather outlook
Go to the weather forecast discussion
Go to the model future-cast radars
Not available today. Go to videos
Not available today. Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature and precipitation graphics
Not available today. Spring and summer outlooks. Here are the latest graphics.
Go to Weatherbrains
View some of our charity work. Your subscription dollars help support these causes.

Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com

Today: Monitor tonight. Some scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours, lightning, and hail will be possible. There is a low-end risk of hail exceeding the size of nickels.
.
Tomorrow: Yes. Thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night could be intense. A few storms could become severe. There remain questions about coverage and instability. Confidence in storms producing quarter size hail or larger and/or 60 mph wind gusts is low. There is a non-zero tornado risk, as well. Low-end risk.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Today through Monday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible tonight, Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. Some storms could be severe late tonight into Sunday night. I am monitoring Monday. The main concern is hail and strong winds.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Tuesday through Friday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible on Thursday/Thursday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring late Wednesday night into Thursday night. A cold front will push through the region. If we have enough moisture return then storms could be severe.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 5, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: ** IF clouds are thicker on Saturday then temperatures will likely only climb into the upper 60’s** A mix of sun and clouds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible during the afternoon over southeast Missouri and the Bootheel. Lesser chances across the rest of the area. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast during the morning at 4 to 8 mph. Winds increasing during the afternoon from the southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None during the morning. Isolated during the afternoon over southeast Missouri and the Bootheel. Lesser chances across the rest of the area.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? For most of the area, none. A few wet roadways possible late in the day over southeast Missouri and the Bootheel. Lesser chances across the rest of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Thickening clouds. Showers and thunderstorms developing from the southwest. Most of the storms will arrive late at night. A few storms could be intense with gusty winds and hail. Locally heavy rain is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Increasing coverage overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce high winds and hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars during the evening hours.
Sunset: 7:22 PM
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:47 PM

April 7, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Windy. Warm. A mix of sun and clouds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible. A few storms could be severe. There remain questions about instability and coverage on Sunday. Clouds and rain/storms may keep instability down. If that occurs then the severe weather risk will be minimal. If we do have some sunshine then the risk of severe storms will increase. Overall, confidence in severe weather is low.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near storms. Monitor the risk of severe storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. Monitor radars and updates.
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain is possible. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates. There are some questions about precipitation coverage on Sunday night. Overall, confidence in severe weather is low.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few severe storms are possible during the evening. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. Monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:23 PM
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:47 PM

April 8, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance of showers and some thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 70° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° West KY 70° to 75° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Variable winds becoming north and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some locally heavy downpours are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel. I would monitor radars and updates. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
.
Monday night Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A chance of scattered showers and some thunderstorms over our eastern and southeast counties. That would mainly be across western Kentucky and western Tennessee. The further east/southeast you travel the greater the chance of spotty showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Precipitation chances should be winding down.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 52° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Light north winds at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% Southern IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly our eastern and southeastern counties). Ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars during the evening hours.
Sunset: 7:24 PM
Moonrise: 8:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:50 PM

.
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Highs in the middle 70’s. Lows in the lower to middle 50’s. North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph

.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Windy. Highs in the middle to upper 70’s. Lows in the upper 50’s. South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph

.
Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. Windy. A chance of a thunderstorm. Mild. Highs in the lower to middle 70’s. Lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s. South and southwest winds at 25 to 40 mph. Winds becoming west overnight. Gusty.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

.Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

.

Wind forecast

.Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
.

Today and tomorrow: Thunderstorms are possible tonight into Sunday night. Thunderstorms tonight could produce dime to nickel size hail, lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Storms on Sunday and Sunday night could produce hail and high winds. There is a low-end tornado risk. There remain questions about how unstable the atmosphere will be on Sunday and Sunday night. Monitor updates. A few warnings can’t be ruled out.

Monday through Saturday: Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday. Monitor updates. Colder weather Thursday night into Saturday night. No severe concerns during that time.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

A nice day today.
Thunderstorm chances enter the picture tonight into Monday.
Another chance of storms by Thursday.
Strong winds on Wednesday and especially on Thursday/Thursday night. Winds could top 40 mph on Thursday.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major changes in the going forecast.

I did increase high temperatures on Wednesday.

I added the mention of strong winds on Thursday.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

Yes. Thunderstorms are possible tonight. Lightning is the main concern. Some reports of hail will also be possible. A few downpours. Storms will be scattered.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Forecast discussion.

If you have weekend plans then monitor updates concerning the Saturday night and Sunday time-frame.

There are some concerns that a few storms could be intense on Saturday night and Sunday. Monitor updates.

Today into Sunday night.

Radars

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

This morning:

We have some fog in the region this morning. Use care.

A storm system is taking shape to our west and south. This system will help our temperatures climb today and tomorrow.

Today’s highs will likely be in the 70’s area-wide. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler where clouds linger.

Here are the 9 AM satellite and radar views.

Notice that line of storms in Texas? That complex in Texas may actually push all the way into our region by late tonight.

I am watching that as it moves east and northeast today. This could block some moisture tonight. If the moisture is blocked then our risk of heavier rain and stronger storms would be reduced.

This happened the other day, as well.

These Gulf of Mexico thunderstorm complexes tend to block better moisture flow from moving northward.

Click to enlarge the satellite/radar image.

White are clouds. The colors represent precipitation.

We should see thunderstorms develop tonight into Sunday morning. Those storms will push into the region from the southwest. They will be moving northeast at 15 to 30 mph.

Storms tonight could be locally strong. Perhaps below severe levels. I can’t, however, rule out some reports of small hail and 40 mph wind gusts.

Here is what the NAM 3K model is showing. This is its future-cast radar. What it believes radar might look like.

Time-stamp upper left. You can see the band of storms in Arkansas pushing northeast. These are some of the storms that will need monitoring tonight.

This only takes us through tonight.

This won’t be exact but you do get the general idea. Scattered storms are possible tonight into Sunday morning.

The overall severe risk tonight is low. Hail is the main concern. Gusty winds. Lightning, of course.

Sunday and Sunday night:

As we move into Sunday the forecast becomes a bit more complex.

Clouds and morning showers/storms could help keep instability down. You need instability for severe weather.

With that said, we have a risk of some severe thunderstorms on Sunday/Sunday night. The main concern will be large hail and high winds. The tornado risk is not zero, but it is not all that great, either. As always, monitor updates. It only takes on storm to ruin the day.

Sunday is the kind of day where you could have more than one thunderstorm. It likely won’t be one storm and it is over. The cold front will remain to our west through Sunday night.

If instability does develop on Sunday then the risk of severe weather will increase. This will be a now-cast. What is a now-cast? It is forecasting weather in the short-term (12 hours or less).

Typically, on severe weather days, we have to monitor morning clouds and rain. We do that to see if they will clear out in time for instability to redevelop.

Here is the NAM 3K model future-cast radar that takes us from Sunday morning into Sunday night.

Notice that this model does not show much happening Sunday afternoon or evening. This will need to be monitored.

Overall confidence in how Sunday/Sunday night unfolds is rather low.

Other models show more activity than the NAM. None of that adds confidence to the forecast. Monitor updates.

I will be sending out app/text messages if severe weather develops.

Again, this is just a model and its opinion. Take the general idea from it. Scattered showers and storms will be with us into Sunday night.

Monday into Monday night:

By Monday the storm system will be pushing through the region. This will bring an additional chance of showers and thunderstorms.

By Monday night the shower and thunderstorm chances will be diminishing west to east. For now, severe weather appears unlikely on Monday. Monitor updates.

Wednesday into Friday:

A powerful winter storm will take shape by Wednesday and Thursday well to our west and north.

A deep area of low pressure will develop in the Central Plains. That low will move northeast into the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes.

The system will drag a cold front through our region with much cooler air behind it.

Here is that system on the GFS.

There are questions about quality moisture return. If dew points don’t climb on Thursday then showers and thunderstorms may not form. This remains a question.

This is a deep low and we should see at least some moisture return. Monitor updates.

The colors represent precipitation.

Notice how the line of showers and thunderstorms form over or near our region. That is the point the system pulls in enough moisture for precipitation.

Blue is snow (to our north). Green and yellow are showers and thunderstorms.

Click to enlarge.

Cooler by the end of the week:

I am monitoring the risk of frost by Friday or Saturday morning. At this time, 30’s appear possible. Not sure we dip into the 20’s. Monitor updates if you have agricultural concerns.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

I posted these above. Scroll up.

.These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

Click here to go to the top of the page

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Not receiving app/text messages?

Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Do that under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.
USE THE APP. Verizon and ATT have been throttling text messages. The app receives the same messages instantly. Texts can take longer. Please, use the app. It is under Beau Dodson Weather in the app stores.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

Click here to go to the top of the page

WeatherBrains Episode 689

Tonight’s WeatherBrains is a special show regarding the NWS’s Hazard Simplification Program or “Haz Simp”. This program has been around for a couple of years and is designed to potentially redesign and reinvigorate the National Weather Service Watch/Warning/Advisory system.

Our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a Social Science Researcher and Project Manager for Haz Simp along with Eli Jacks of the NWS. Her background is in meteorology, but her PhD program is interdisciplinary with a focus on sociology of disasters and risk communication. Danielle Nagele, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Guest Panelist this week is soon-to-be graduating meteorology student from the University of Oklahoma. Jordan Overton, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: