April 8, 2019. Non-subscribers update.

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Today: No. There could be some lightning.
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Tomorrow: No.

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Today through Wednesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Thursday through Sunday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Perhaps. I am monitoring Thursday afternoon and evening for strong thunderstorms. Severe weather can’t be ruled out. Monitor update
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 8, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Scattered showers and some thunderstorms. Rain chances will taper west to east. Rain will linger longest over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 72° to 75° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable winds becoming north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% to 50% IL 40% to 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp early in the day).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel. I would monitor radars and updates. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Any remaining showers ending. Decreasing clouds. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Light north winds at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 20% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Any remaining showers will move off to the east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:24 PM
Moonrise: 8:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:50 PM

April 9, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A few passing clouds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 72° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Variable winds becoming north and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Patchy fog is again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Light northeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 7:25 PM
Moonrise: 9:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:52 PM

April 10, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Quite warm. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 74° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly to mostly clear. Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 58° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:26 PM
Moonrise: 10:04 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Windy. A chance of a thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be intense. Colder Thursday night behind the front. Highs in the lower to middle 70’s. Lows in the upper 30’s to middle 40’s. South and southwest winds at 25 to 40 mph. Winds becoming west overnight. Gusty.

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Friday: Partly cloudy. Cooler. Monitor the risk of frost Friday night if winds calm down. Highs in the upper 50’s north to lower 60’s south. Lows in the middle to upper 30’s (perhaps around 40 in our southern counties closer to KY/TN border). West and northwest at 10 to 20. Gusty.

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Saturday: Partly sunny. Becoming cloudy Saturday night. A chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Highs in the middle 60’s. Lows in the middle to upper 30’s. Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated with a new graphic around 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is possible today (Monday). Severe weather is unlikely.

Tuesday through Friday: Thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon. Some of the storms could be severe. Monitor updates.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Some showers and thunderstorms for your Monday. Tapering as the day wears on.
Warm Tuesday through Thursday with widespread 70’s.
A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday and Thursday night with additional thunderstorm chances. Monitor updates.
Colder Thursday and Friday night. I can’t rule out frost. Monitor updates.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

I increased temperatures slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday.

I lowered the low temperatures on Tuesday night.

The spring and summer outlooks have been updated. Scroll towards the bottom of the page to see those.

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

No. Lightning is possible today.

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Forecast discussion.

The main weather story today (Monday) will be the ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity. The showers and storms will taper as we move through today. Ending west to east.

Dry conditions are forecast tonight into Thursday morning.

It will be warm over the coming days! Widespread 70’s are on tap for the region. Spring conditions.

A deep area of low pressure will develop in the Central Plains and track northeast into the Great Lakes. This system may dip into the 980’s (millibars). That is a deep low. Some models show it going below 980. Either way, it is an impressive low.

This will mean a tight pressure gradient across our region. That equals wind. Windy conditions will develop by Wednesday and Thursday.

Wind gusts on Wednesday and Wednesday night will likely top 20 mph. Wind gusts on Thursday and Thursday night could top 40 mph.

In addition to the gusty winds, we will have a band of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms form along the cold front.

I am monitoring the risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and night. The one ingredient that is struggling to make its way northward are higher dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture. I typically look for 58 degrees and above when considering the threat of severe thunderstorms. We may see those numbers. Monitor updates.

Wind shear will be quite strong on Thursday. Wind fields will increase in response to the deep area of low pressure. Wind shear is one ingredient to look for when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

Here are a few maps.

Dew point map Thursday evening.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

This is the 850 mb wind field map. This is about 5000 feet aloft.

Strong wind fields. One ingredient when considering severe weather. Click to enlarge.

Notice the dark red over our area Thursday morning. Strong winds. The better chance of storms, however, won’t arrive until Thursday afternoon and evening.

We will have to see if the stronger wind fields line up with the cold front and thunderstorm activity.

500 mb winds.

This is about 18,000 feet into the atmosphere. This is a strong jet stream and jet streak associated with the Thursday event.

Strong wind fields increase the risk of severe weather. Click to enlarge.

This next map is showing you where lift is likely to occur. That shaded/hatched area is where storms should form.

Of course, you need lift in order for thunderstorms to form.

That is right along and ahead of the strong cold front.

Click to enlarge graphics.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

The main concern (outside of Monday’s activity) will be another cold front on Thursday/Thursday night. Another system Saturday night/Sunday.

Let me show you a few animations.

This is the GFS model guidance animation. This is the Thursday event. This is a strong cold front. Wind shear will be strong. Instability may be lacking. The wind shear could make up the different. Strong storms are possible. Let’s keep an eye on it.

Timestamp upper left.

Click to enlarge.

And here is the upcoming weekend event on the GFS.

This system moves up from the Gulf of Mexico. That means it could have quite a bit of moisture with it.

This event is still several days away. I will be monitoring trends in guidance. Heavy rain is possible if the low tracks over our region.

Dates to monitor for precipitation.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

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They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 689

Tonight’s WeatherBrains is a special show regarding the NWS’s Hazard Simplification Program or “Haz Simp”. This program has been around for a couple of years and is designed to potentially redesign and reinvigorate the National Weather Service Watch/Warning/Advisory system.

Our Guest WeatherBrain this week is a Social Science Researcher and Project Manager for Haz Simp along with Eli Jacks of the NWS. Her background is in meteorology, but her PhD program is interdisciplinary with a focus on sociology of disasters and risk communication. Danielle Nagele, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Guest Panelist this week is soon-to-be graduating meteorology student from the University of Oklahoma. Jordan Overton, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: