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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am watching another system Friday evening and night.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? LOW RISK. I will keep an eye on a cold front Friday night for rain ending as a wintry mix.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 5. Moderate risk.
Wednesday night. 5. Moderate risk.
Thursday through Thursday night: 5. Moderate risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Dry weather continues through the middle of the week. Winds become breezy Thursday morning with the passage of a cold front. A stronger system moves through Friday bringing a chance of showers, possibly ending with a brief switch to light snow. Much colder conditions and continued breezy winds are expected for the weekend with temperatures warming for the start of next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. Nice.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 5:33 PM .
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 9:30 AM
Moonset: 11:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 5:35 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 35°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:01 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of rain.
A bit of a spread on temperatures Friday. Colder north of the front.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars. Rain is a possibility.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 5:36 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain changing to snow showers. Turning sharply colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for icy roadways. Roads may be too warm for ice. I will monitor it.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:36 AM
Moonset: 12:39 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 36° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 5:37 PM .
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:17 AM
Moonset: 1:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Nice weather today and tomorrow. Mild temperaures.
- Colder Friday night into the weekend.
- Cold front Friday with rain. Rain may end as snow showers.
- Warming trend next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
HAPPY VALENTINE’S DAY!
It is going to be an amazing weather day. Perhaps the best day of the week. Highs will pop into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Beautiful weather.
No weather concerns today through Thursday night. Perhaps some gusty wind from time to time tonight into the weekend.
It will turn a bit colder Thursday night.
A strong cold front will sweep across the region Friday and Friday night. This will bring a chance of rain. The rain may end as snow.
It is still a bit early to know if a dusting to an inch of snow will be possible. Models have been trending stronger with this event.
If the cold air arrives early enough, then we could see some light accumulation.
Ground and road temperatures are warm. Thus, it may be difficult to have impacts from the snow.
With that said, temperatures will likely fall into the low to mid 20s Friday night. That is quite cold. If moisture remains on surfaces, then some icy road conditions could develop.
We will need to monitor it closely.
Saturday and Sunday will be dry and chilly.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the Canadian Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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