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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
The St Louis NWS posted a briefing on Friday’s snow potential.
The Paducah, Kentucky NWS posted these images.
As you can see, the focus for snow accumulation is mainly north. That doesn’t mean there won’t be some dusty accumulation farther south. It just means the chances are higher as you travel north.
We will need to monitor the track of the system. If it were to shift 50 miles or so, then adjustments would be necessary.
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Friday over the southern portions of the region. I will monitor next WED/THU.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? POSSIBLE. Friday night/Saturday morning wind chill values of 8 to 18 degrees are likely.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? YES. I am watching Friday and Friday night. Light snow accumulation is possible. Mixed with sleet. Mainly north, but other areas should monitor, as well.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? LOW RISK. I will keep an eye on a cold front Friday night for rain ending as a wintry mix.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday: 5. Moderate risk.
Thursday night. 5. Moderate risk.
Friday through Friday night: 5. Moderate risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A few sprinkles are possible early this morning ahead of a mostly dry frontal passage. A stronger system will move through on Friday with showers, mixing with and transitioning to light snow with a dusting on grassy surfaces possible, mainly along the I-64 corridor. Significantly colder temperatures and breezy conditions are forecast for Friday night through early Sunday morning, with temperatures warming back up through much of next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Thursday Forecast: Some morning clouds. A slight chance of sprinkles over our far northern counties. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 am
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 5:35 PM .
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Thursday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 35°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 35°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 35°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 10:01 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain could change to snow and sleet over the northern half of the region as temperatures fall. We will need to monitor the rain snow line.
A bit of a spread on temperatures Friday. Colder north of the front.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 35° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the weather radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 5:36 PM .
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Friday Night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of snow and sleet showers. Turning sharply colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Watch for icy roadways. Roads may be too warm for ice. I will monitor it.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates on road conditions. Falling temperatures could lead to icy roads.
Moonrise: 10:36 AM
Moonset: 12:39 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 35° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 5:37 PM .
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 25°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:17 AM
Moonset: 1:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Mild! Nice day.
- Colder tonight.
- Cold front Friday with rain. Rain may end as snow showers.
- Warming trend next week.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
A cold front is moving through the region today. It is delivering some clouds to the area. Radar even shows a few showers near St Louis. These showers could clip our northern counties.
The cold front will push across the region over the next 12 to 18 hours. It will be mild today. Highs in the 50s. Perhaps near 60 far south. Gusty winds developing.
Morning clouds are likely to give way to sunny sky conditions as we move through the day.
Winds today into Saturday will gust above 20 mph.
It will be colder tonight, but nothing extreme.
A strong cold front will push into the region tomorrow and tomorrow night. This will bring numerous showers to the region. As the front pushes southeast, colder air will filter into the region.
This colder air will change the rain to snow and sleet. There remain questions about snow accumulation. Ground and road temperatures are mild.
It appears that a dusting to an inch of snow will be possible over our northern counties. Perhaps central counties.
Temperatures Friday night and Saturday morning will dip into the 20s. Low 20s are possible. Wind chill values of 10 to 20 degrees.
Black ice or icy patches are possible Friday into Saturday. We are likely not looking at widespread issues, but I can’t rule out icy patches.
Remember, bridges and elevated surfaces freeze first. Be careful on decks and porches/sidewalks. They could freeze earlier.
Saturday and Sunday will be colder. Dry conditions. It will feel like winter.
Milder temperatures are likely next week. I am forecasting 60s to return mid-week. Perhaps even middle 60s!
I will be watching low end rain chances Monday and Tuesday. For now, I kept those around 0 to 10%. I am watching Wednesday and Thursday for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.
Let’s look at a few graphics.
Here is where the WPC believes an inch or two of snow could fall Friday and Friday night. You can see that our northern counties are in blue. Portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, as well.
There could also be light snow and sleet farther south, but confidence wasn’t high enough to color them blue. Just keep in mind, adjustments are possible.
The yellow zone would have a higher chance of one to two inches of snow. My northern counties of Ste Genevieve, Randolph, and Jefferson stand the higher chance of receiving an inch or two of snow. Then, lower chances as you drive farther and farther south.
The Paducah, KY NWS posted this graphic.
Let’s look at three models. What the % chance of one inch or more of snow. They all have a similar idea.
Here are some graphics from the St Louis, MO NWS. Keep in mind, they serve my northern counties, but not southern. Thus, their graphics are centered a bit more to the north.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
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This animation is the Canadian Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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