Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 8, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Monitor.   I am monitoring Friday into Sunday.  Perhaps some thunderstorms.  Confidence is low.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

We will have daily shower/thunderstorm chances into Thursday.  I can’t rule out a few reports of wind damage.  Overall, the risk appears lower-end.  I will monitor each day in case adjustments are necessary.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

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September 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°    SE MO 86° to  90°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 90°    West KY 86° to 90°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  South wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 7:12 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 68°     MO  64° to 68°     South IL  64° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°     NW TN 65° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southeast wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:47 PM
Moonset:  12:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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September 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92°    SE MO 88° to  92°    South IL  86° to 90°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92°    West KY 88° to 92°    NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:  East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°     MO  64° to 66°     South IL  64° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°     NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:  Calm wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset:  1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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September 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88°    SE MO 84° to  88°    South IL  84° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88°    West KY 84° to 88°    NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: West north and northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°     MO  64° to 68°     South IL  64° to 66°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°     NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset:  2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

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September 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~  10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86°    SE MO 83° to  86°    South IL  83° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 1%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°     MO  63° to 66°     South IL  63° to 66°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°     NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:07 PM
Moonset:  3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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September 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86°    SE MO 83° to  86°    South IL  83° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°     MO  63° to 66°     South IL  63° to 66°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°     NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:58 PM
Moonset:  4:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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September 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86°    SE MO 83° to  86°    South IL  83° to 86°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86°    West KY 83° to 86°    NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:05 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  A few clouds. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°     MO  63° to 66°     South IL  63° to 66°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 63° to 66°     NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North 4 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:57 AM
Moonset:  5:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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September 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82°    SE MO 76° to  80°    South IL  76° to 80°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80°    West KY 76° to 80°    NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64°     MO  56° to 62°     South IL  56° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62°    West KY 56° to 62°     NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:03 AM
Moonset:  5:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Dry weather for most of this week.
  2.  I am monitoring rain chances Friday into Sunday.
  3.  Warm.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

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Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through September 12th:  No severe weather anticipated.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated September 8,  2020

Quiet weather.

 

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Calm weather.
    2.   Warm weather.
    3.   Raised temperatures Friday into Sunday.
    4.    The weekend cold front and entire system has slowed considerably.

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Calm weather will blanket the area through at least Thursday.  Warm days.  Mild nights.  Patchy fog at night.

Our late week cool down no longer looks all that cool.  The entire system is stalling to our west.

That will leave summer-time high pressure to dominate our weather.  That means warm/hot weather!

I will monitor shower chances Thursday into Sunday.  There are signals for at least one of those days to have a bit more of an increase than the other days.  Right now, I am watching Saturday/Sunday.  There is little or no confidence in rain totals or coverage, yet.

The models need to resolve the weather pattern a bit more before I raise rain chances above 20%.  I am fairly sure there will be a period of time this weekend when I do raise them.

What looked to be highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s has no become highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

I have not raised temperatures Friday through Sunday as high as some of the model data.  Some data shows upper 80s.  I will monitor trends before jumping onboard that train

Enjoy the calm.  Autumn often becomes active.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

No rain

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

No rain

 

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

No rain

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

No rain

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

No rain

 


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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  September 8th through September 14th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers  September 15th through 21st

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″

This outlook covers September 22nd through October 5th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

 

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Fall Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

September Temperature Outlook (prelim)

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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)

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The Preliminary October Outlook has been posted.

Temperatures

AN means above average temperatures.

Precipitation

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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)

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November Precipitation Outlook

BN means below normal (below average)

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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