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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Saturday into Sunday. Perhaps some thunderstorms. I am watching Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
We will have daily shower/thunderstorm chances into Thursday. I can’t rule out a few reports of wind damage. Overall, the risk appears lower-end. I will monitor each day in case adjustments are necessary.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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September 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 7:11 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Calm wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:23 PM
Moonset: 1:21 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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September 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:09 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68° MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 2:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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September 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Locally warmer if we have more sunshine.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:08 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast and east wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:07 PM
Moonset: 3:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Mainly during the afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 84° to 86° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 7:06 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:58 PM
Moonset: 4:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. A tiny chance of a shower over KY/TN.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 7:05 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: A few clouds. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: North 4 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:57 AM
Moonset: 5:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 75° to 80° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° West KY 56° to 62° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:03 AM
Moonset: 5:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Most likely dry. I will keep an eye on a southern system.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 64° MO 56° to 62° South IL 56° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° West KY 56° to 62° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:14 AM
Moonset: 6:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Dry weather for most of this week.
- I am monitoring rain chances Saturday and Sunday. Again on Tuesday.
- Warm.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
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Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through September 12th: No severe weather anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated September 9, 2020
Quiet weather.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm weather.
- Monitoring rain chances over the weekend.
- A little cooler early next week.
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No significant changes to the going forecast.
We now know the cooler air won’t arrive until late in the weekend or next week. The entire system slowed over the last few days. Model guidance has not been helpful.
This happens during the autumn months.
That will leave summer-time high pressure to dominate our weather. That means warm/hot weather!
Our only chance of rain will be Saturday into Sunday and perhaps Tuesday.
This does not appear to be a widespread rain event. I have scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. Lesser chances on Sunday.
Some areas may very well miss out on the rain. I don’t believe anyone needs rain.
Temperatures will continue to be warm to hot. The hottest day will likely be today with temperatures around 90 degrees.
Mostly 80s tomorrow through Sunday. Perhaps some high temperatures in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday. We shall see.
No severe weather in the current forecast.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers September 9th through September 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers September 16th through 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers September 22nd through October 5th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The Preliminary October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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