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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Patchy dense fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting problems
Sunday – Patchy morning fog possible. Otherwise, partly sunny and hot. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? None.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Some clouds and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Probabilities for precipitation on Tuesday into Thursday will likely need to be adjusted as we move forward. I need more confidence in the model solutions before doing that.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 30%
What impact is expected? Not expecting issues. But, will monitor trends in the data.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Scattered.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 30%
What impact is expected? Not expecting issues
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Not likely
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Above normal temperatures into early next week. September is off to a very warm start.
2. Small thunderstorm chances.
3. Increasingly unsettled weather next week
4. Big cool down by next weekend! It should feel more like fall by Friday into Sunday.
Hello, hello, hello! I hope you are having a wonderful holiday weekend. Boy, is it warm outside. I suppose we could even use the word hot.
Check out the anomalies for Saturday and Sunday. Well above normal temperatures. You summer fans must be smiling 🙂
Here was the Saturday chart
and here is the Sunday anomalies. In other words, how many degrees above normal will temperatures be on Sunday.
Normal highs are around 85 degrees.
Graphics are from the www.weatherobservatory.com website
Warm! That is the word of the day. Temperatures will remain above normal through at least Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for Sunday and Monday
The good news is that a strong cold front is already in the forecast to push into our region on Tuesday through Thursday. Perhaps two cold fronts, actually.
Here is the temperature forecast for next Friday. Quite a bit of difference, wouldn’t you say?
These fronts will usher in some much cooler air. A refreshing air mass. By next weekend highs may not get out of the 70’s and lows may dip into the 50’s. Some of the data is showing 40’s. But, that seems a little overdone. We shall see!
You can do this again by the end of the week
Open window weather by the end of the week and next weekend.
With the cold front will come several chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Data is mixed on Tuesday into Tuesday night. I went ahead and bumped up the precipitation chances to 30% or less. Some data is showing a lot more than that, but it might be overdone. Better chances perhaps west and north. Let’s keep an eye on it. I will update accordingly if changes are necessary.
Bigger rain chances arrive on Wednesday into Thursday night. These showers and thunderstorms will actually be along the cold front. I can’t rule out a few heavy storms. But, it is still too far out to think about severe weather. I am watching the trends. It is a strong cold front and we do have an unstable air mass over the region.
Winds fields, however, appear fairly weak this week. If the wind fields were stronger then I might be more concerned. But, again…still a bit early. I will monitor trends.
Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ could occur this week in the region. Not quite sure yet if everyone will pick up those numbers. But, as a general starting point that is what I am thinking. As always, thunderstorms can drop quite a bit more rain in isolated spots. Again, best chances for precipitation appear to be Wednesday into Thursday night.
The front will be near our region on Friday. We may still have some showers and storms in the region at that time. But, they should be on the way out.
By Friday night into the weekend you can expect partly cloudy sky conditions with much cooler temperatures. Much lower humidity levels. Much lower dew points. And that my friends might equal a very nice fallish weekend.
Let’s take a quick look at the difference in temperature anomalies from Tuesday to Sunday. This first map shows you warm colors for Tuesday. Well above normal temperatures. Image is from weatherbell.com
And now, let’s compare to next Saturday and Sunday. Those blue and green colors represent below normal temperatures.
Check out the GFS model for next Saturday/Sunday. Well below normal temperatures. This is the temperature anomaly map. How many degrees above or below normal. The blue and green are below normal. The purplish colors are well below normal. Definitely going to be cooler next weekend! Map is from weatherbell.com
Here is the 6-8 and 8-10 day temperature forecast. This takes you from September 10th through September 18th. Odds favor below normal temperatures
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major widespread rainfall events anticipated through Monday. There could be a few scattered storms over the weekend. Of course, this time of the year thunderstorms can produce pockets of very heavy rain. Keep that in mind. Even if it is isolated.
Odds favor most areas remaining dry.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ONE on Sunday and Monday. Small thunderstorm chances. There were a few storms on Saturday, so I went ahead and put a ONE for Sunday and Monday. But, most areas will remain dry.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Monitor updates
Thursday: Monitor updates
No major concerns for Sunday or Monday. Very isolated thunderstorm risk. Less than 10% risk at any given point. If it rains at your place then you were just unlucky! Most areas will remain dry on Sunday and Monday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Tuesday through at least Thursday night. Smaller chances Tuesday and bigger chances Wednesday and Thursday. Some data shows storms on Tuesday. I will keep an eye on it. I will probably keep it around 20%-30% chance for now. Subject to changes as more data becomes available.
Right now the severe weather risk this weeks appears fairly small, but perhaps not zero. Locally heavy downpours in storms.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
