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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday – Patchy morning fog. Partly sunny and hot. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 90’s
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting problems
Sunday – Partly sunny and hot. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? None.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Some clouds and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s (if we have more sun than expected then 90 to 92 could occur)
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Probabilities for precipitation on Tuesday into Thursday will likely need to be adjusted as we move forward. I need more confidence in the model solutions before doing that.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting issues.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting issues
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Not likely
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Above normal temperatures into early next week. September is off to a very warm start.
2. Just small thunderstorm chances
3. Increasingly unsettled weather next week
Hot weather will stick around right on through at least Monday and maybe even Tuesday. Then I am seeing changes in the pattern that will usher in better rain chances and cooler temperatures towards the middle/end of next week.
We are off to a hot start for September. Well above normal temperatures. Expect highs on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday to reach into the 90’s. Mainly light wind conditions. Should not be an issue for boaters over the weekend.
Saturday highs
Sunday highs
Monday highs
Dew points will likely remain in the 60’s over the coming days. Some of the data attempts to mix down lower numbers. If that were to occur then it certainly would make the air mass feel nicer. Let’s see how it goes. Plan on 60’s dew points with temperatures in the 90’s. That would keep heat index readings mainly in the 90’s. Perhaps near 100 at times during peak heating between 2 pm and 4 pm.
There are signals in the data that a cold front will move into the region next week.
If you remember my discussions from the last few days you will know that the models have been having a difficult time resolving the timing of the front. The GFS and EC have been battling it out. Typically I like the EC in the long range. But, the GFS might be on to something with its slower solution.
If the slower solution verifies then the cold front won’t enter the region until next Tuesday night-Thursday. It will push in from the north. It won’t be in a hurry to exit. We might have several days with shower and thunderstorm chances above 40%-50%. The best chance would likely be on Wednesday and Thursday.
Here is the GFS map from wright-weather.com The purple and pink represent rain and storms. You can see the cold front with the big high pressure center behind it. The high pressure would usher in cooler and drier air. Canadian high pressure will do that!
The map for next weekend is a nice one. Now, remember 🙂 this is still a week away. Maps can change. But, for now it looks nice.
Check out the weatherbell.com dew point forecast map for next weekend. Dew points is one way meteorologist measure moisture in the air. Very low dew points could mean cool temperatures. It would be a very nice and refreshing air mass. Cross fingers?
When it comes to dew points you will remember that during the summer months you will have dew points in the 60’s and 70’s. Air you wear, as they say. Humid. Muggy. Miserable. Low dew points feel great. Nice fresh air.
Too soon to know if any storms will produce high winds or severe weather. It is something I will be monitoring.
PWAT values during the middle of next week are fairly high. That could mean locally heavy rain as a squall line pushes through the region.
Here is the PWAT value map from weatherbell.com
PWAT’s are a great way to measure the moisture content of the entire atmosphere (from top to bottom)
and now the same map AFTER the front moves through. The moisture has been swept southward.
Rainfall totals from this event will exceed 1″ in a few spots. We could use the rain. We have fall fire season approaching. Would be nice to get some moisture back into the ground.
Late next week and next weekend might be cooler
Much cooler air might arrive by next weekend. The models are showing the coolest dew points of the season, thus far. If true we might watch out for some lows in the 40’s. Still a little early to bank on that happening. But, I am watching it. That would mean you could sleep with the windows open again. Some of you have been waiting for slightly cooler air.
Let’s look at some charts. Monday high temperatures will be in the 90’s. But, let’s look ahead to next weekend.
By next Sunday the charts show much cooler air. Still early to bank on this happening. But, it is fun to look at.
Here is the 6-8 and 8-10 day temperature forecast. This takes you from September 10th through September 18th. Odds favor below normal temperatures
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major widespread rainfall events anticipated through Monday. There could be a few scattered storms over the weekend. Of course, this time of the year thunderstorms can produce pockets of very heavy rain. Keep that in mind. Even if it is isolated.
Odds favor most areas remaining dry.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Saturday. Very small thunderstorm chances.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Monitor updates
Thursday: Monitor updates
I wouldn’t say I am concerned about anything this weekend. I suppose the heat, but we are used to hot weather in our region. The risk for thunderstorms is very very low. I can’t 100% rule out an isolated storm popping up into Monday, but the odds appear to be less than a 10% chance. Better chances next week for showers and thunderstorms. A pattern shift is likely to occur soon enough.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
