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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? less than 10%
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Some clouds and warm. Much of the same. Patchy morning fog possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Probabilities for precipitation on Tuesday into Thursday will likely need to be adjusted as we move forward. I need more confidence in the model solutions before doing that.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly northern and western counties. Warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 30%
What impact is expected? Not expecting issues. But, will monitor trends in the data.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Scattered.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? A few storms possible. Locally heavy rain and lightning if storms do develop. Best chances far northern and western counties.
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain may occur and put a damper on outdoor activities.
Is severe weather expected? Not likely
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph possible becoming northwest.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms tapering off from the northwest to southeast through the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% Tapering off to the southeast through the day.
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday night – Decreasing clouds. Perhaps an evening shower for our southeastern counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Nothing major
Friday – Partly cloudy with a chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance
What impact is expected? Maybe a few showers.
Saturday and Sunday should be mostly dry and very nice temperatures. Highs in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s. Beautiful weather.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Monday will be a warm one, much like the last few days. Well above normal temperatures. We are on a streak.
2. Small thunderstorm chances.
3. Thunderstorm chances start to ramp up a bit by Tuesday night and increase a lot on Wednesday into Thursday.
4. Big cool down by next weekend! It should feel more like fall by Friday into Sunday.
5. Long range active? Perhaps
I hope you are enjoying your holiday weekend. I know I am. The weather has been great. A little hot, yes. But, it is still officially calendar summer. Even though we are in meteorological fall (see the September 1st post for an explanation on that subject). It is a time of transition. And, transition we will have.
The weather on Monday will be dominated by high pressure. A ridge of high pressure. And, if you have been reading my blog then you will know that a ridge of high pressure means warm/hot weather during the summer months. We have been averaging 5-10 degrees above normal over the last few days (for high temperatures).
Here are the Paducah, KY high temperature numbers and anything in orange has been above normal. Gee, that would be every single day of September, thus far! We will tack on a few more days this week. MAX is the high temp for that day. MIN is the low. AVG is the average of the two. DEP is the departure from normal of the two averaged together.
High temperature graphics are from the www.weatherobservatory.com website
Here is the high temperature map for Monday
So, if you thought it was warm then you were right.
Tuesday’s high temperature map
All of that is about to change. I am tracking a couple of strong cold fronts that will usher in fall like air by Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will finally dip below normal and you can sleep with your windows open. Collective cheer?
By Friday into Sunday you can expect highs only in the 70’s. Lows will likely dip into the 50’s. Some data still shows lows in the 40’s, but that seems a bit too cool. Let’s plan on overnight lows in the 50’s. I think you will love this upcoming air mass on Friday into Sunday/Monday.
Here is the high temperature forecast for Friday and Saturday. Notice the dramatic change! Hey, it is that time of the year. We will experience swings as the seasons start to blow in their changes. Slowly, but surely we will stair step down into fall.
and Saturday
First, however, we have to push through some shower and thunderstorm chances. Those chances will start to creep into the region by Tuesday night and rapidly increase on Wednesday. Expect most areas to pick up at least some rainfall from this cold front. Rainfall totals of 0.30″-0.60″ will be possible (I dropped it a little bit from what I was thinking yesterday). It would not surprise me if some areas do miss out. Keep that in mind. Not sure “everyone” experiences rainfall. I hope so. I know you need rain. Locally heavy rain is always possible where thunderstorms occur.
Let’s check out the surface maps
This is for Tuesday evening around 5 pm – 8 pm. The bright yellow represents heavy storms and rain. The green represents rain showers and some thunderstorms. Brighter colors are heavier precipitation. You can see the bulk of the activity to our north and northwest on Tuesday evening. It will start to shift southeast overnight. And, by late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning we should have some showers and storms in the area.
Note the hurricane off the Baja of California (to the southwest of there). Pacific Ocean has been very very active with hurricanes and typhoons this year. That is because of El Nino.
Here is the Wednesday map. This map is for around 6 am to 8 am on Wednesday morning. You can see some green in our region. You can also see a line of precipitation to our west/northwest along the cold front.
Let’s move ahead now to Wednesday evening. Check out all the precipitation scattered over the eastern part of the country. The cold front is on the move. It is bumping into the warm and moist air that has been with us for the past week.
Then by Thursday morning you can see an area of low pressure over Minnesota. See the big 1021 mb H behind it? That is the big area of Canadian high pressure. Canadian high pressure means cooler air. Unlike the high pressure ridges that nudge in from the southwest and southeast. A high dropping down from Canada during September can only mean one thing. Cooler air!
And then by the weekend the high pressure area will dominate our regions weather. Great temperatures and lower humidity levels. Fallish air.
The front will linger on Thursday morning and then be joined by a stronger front on Friday (maybe some showers along that front, as well). It is the second cold front that will deliver the bigger blow to our warm air mass. It will push it well south of our region. Leaving us with nice temperatures, lower dew points, lower humidity. It will basically be the opposite of this weekend. Ever read Superman? Bizzarro-world? A flip to the opposite.
Analog forecasting shows a high chance of below normal temperatures next weekend. Look at all that blue.
What does the blue mean? It means odds favor below normal temperatures. The deeper the blue the higher the chance for verification. In other words…it’s happening.
This map shows how many degrees below normal we will average out. Several!
In the longer range the models are starting to show a stronger jet stream over the coming weeks. That is normal. As we start to watch the seasons change we also start to monitor for more and more active weather. Stronger jet streams equal more concerns.
Typically in October and November we experience a few severe weather events. Keep this in mind. Fall severe weather can be nasty. We have had a number of large tornado outbreaks during the fall seasons. People don’t always associate tornadoes with the fall months. But, it is quite common to have severe thunderstorms during October and November. As the jet stream is in transition and storms have plenty of wind energy to work with. I have no idea how this year will play out. There is no way to forecast that far ahead. I tell you this so you keep it in the back of your mind.
The GFS is showing a significant storm system later next week (September 16th-18th), but this is in the long range and confidence would be low. But, it is a sign of changes to come. Models don’t do well with details beyond day 4, 5, and 6. Sometimes they don’t even do well on the day of an event!
The closer we move towards fall the more we will start to see the charts paint activity like this.
Have a great Labor Day 2015!!!!
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major widespread rainfall events anticipated through Monday. There could be a few scattered storms. Of course, this time of the year thunderstorms can produce pockets of very heavy rain. Keep that in mind. Even if it is isolated.
Odds favor most areas remaining dry.
We will have much better rain chances by Tuesday night into Thursday night. A couple of cold fronts will push into the region from the northwest. Expect 0.30″-0.60″ of rain over parts of the area. I can’t promise everyone will experience rain. But, quite a few people will pick their first decent rainfall of the month.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ONE on Monday. Small thunderstorm chances. But, most areas will remain dry.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Monitor updates
Thursday: Monitor updates
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns for Monday. Very isolated thunderstorm risk. Less than 10% risk at any given point. If it rains at your place then you were just unlucky! Most areas will remain dry on Monday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late Tuesday through at least Thursday night. Smaller chances Tuesday and bigger chances Wednesday and Thursday.
Some data shows storms on Tuesday. I will keep an eye on it. I will probably keep it around 20%-30% chance for now. Subject to changes as more data becomes available. Perhaps a bit better chance Tuesday night.
Right now the severe weather risk this weeks appears fairly small, but perhaps not zero. Locally heavy downpours in storms.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
