Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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1. 1. Your detailed day to day forecast
   2. City-view graphic-casts
   3. Severe weather outlook
   4. Forecast discussion
   5. Future-cast radars
   6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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September 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Morning clouds and fog.  Decreasing clouds west to east.  Clouds may be stubborn in leaving KY/TN.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80°    SE MO 75° to  78°    South IL  74° to 78°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°    West KY 74° to 78°    NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65°     MO  60° to 64°     South IL  58° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°    West KY 60° to 64°     NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:44 PM
Moonset:  12:29 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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September 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°    SE MO 80° to  84°    South IL  80° to 84°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82°    West KY 80° to 84°    NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62°     MO  54° to 58°     South IL  55° to 60°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:28 PM
Moonset:  1:28 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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September 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny AM.  Some PM clouds. A chance of a PM light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86°    SE MO 82° to  85°    South IL  82° to 85°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85°    West KY 82° to 85°    NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 6:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~  30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58°     MO  54° to 56°     South IL  54° to 56°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58°    West KY 54° to 58°     NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 5:06 PM
Moonset:  2:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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September 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~  50%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 68°    SE MO 64° to  68°    South IL  64° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 6:42 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Any remaining showers will end.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°     MO  43° to 46°     South IL  43° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46°    West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  Any remaining showers will come to an end.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 5:38 PM
Moonset:  3:31 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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September 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 63° to  66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 6:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48°     MO  44° to 48°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°     NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:07 PM
Moonset:  4:31 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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September 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75°    SE MO 70° to  75°    South IL  68° to 74°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°    West KY 70° to 74°    NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 6:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°     MO  44° to 46°     South IL  44° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°     NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:33 PM
Moonset:  5:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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October 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 68°    SE MO 64° to  68°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 64° to 66°    NW TN 65° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest and north wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 6:38 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Light northwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:58 PM
Moonset:  6:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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October 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 63° to  66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 6:36 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Colder.  Patchy fog.  I will monitor the chance of frost over parts of MO/IL.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     MO  38° to 44°     South IL  38° to 44°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 40° to 44°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Light north wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:23 PM
Moonset:  7:24 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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October 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 63° to  66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 6:35 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Colder.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°     MO  40° to 45°     South IL  40° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:48 PM
Moonset:  8:21 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous.

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October 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 63° to  66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:33 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~  30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48°     MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 8:16 PM
Moonset:  9:17 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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What is the UV index?

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1.  No significant weather concerns today through Sunday morning.
2.  Rain chances increase late Sunday and esp Sunday night/Monday.
3.  Cooler next week.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

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Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through September 30th:  At this time severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated September 25th through 27th, 2020.

No major concerns.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

1. 1.   Lingering clouds.
   2.   Warmer today into Sunday.
   3.   Rain chances late Sunday into Monday.
   4.   Much coole next week!

I keep saying I am going to take a few days off!  Eventually, that will happen.

There was only two changes to yesterday’s forecast.

Clouds will linger today, especially over Kentucky/Tennessee.  Clouds will clear west to east through the day  into tonight.

Where clouds linger, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler.  That is the nature of the beast.

Dry today through Sunday morning.

A strong cold front will sweep across the region Sunday night/Monday.

This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.

If you read yesterday’s update, then you would know that trends were towards a wetter Sunday night/Monday.

I have increased rain chances during both time periods.

At this time, severe weather does not appear to be a concern.  Remember, autumn often does bring severe weather.  This is usually from mid-October to November.  Tornadoes are common during this time period.  Thus, let’s pay attention over the coming two months.

We will then settle into winter!  Hard to believe.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  September 25th through October 1st

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers  October 1st through October 7th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″

This outlook covers October 9th through October 22nd

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

Updated after 9 AM – check back.

 

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Fall Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

September Temperature Outlook (prelim)

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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)

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The October Outlook has been posted.

Temperatures

AN means above average temperatures.

Precipitation

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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)

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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)

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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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