Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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1. 1. Your detailed day to day forecast
   2. City-view graphic-casts
   3. Severe weather outlook
   4. Forecast discussion
   5. Future-cast radars
   6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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September 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly before 1 PM.  Rain will exit west to east as the day wears on.  Cooler.  Temperatures falling behind the cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%    IL ~  70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°    SE MO 66° to  68°    South IL  64° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 66° to 68°    NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest wind 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous before 1 pm then decreasing west to east through the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 6:42 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Any remaining showers will end.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 48°     MO  44° to 46°     South IL  44° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°     NW TN 45° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation:  Any remaining showers will come to an end.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 5:38 PM
Moonset:  3:31 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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September 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds.  I am hoping the clouds will erode.  Sometimes it can be difficult to shake stratus clouds during the autumn months.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 63° to  66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 6:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48°     MO  44° to 48°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°     NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:07 PM
Moonset:  4:31 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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September 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds along a weak cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76°    SE MO 72° to  75°    South IL  72° to 75°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75°    West KY 72° to 75°    NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 6:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  A few passing clouds.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°     MO  44° to 46°     South IL  44° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46°    West KY 44° to 46°     NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:33 PM
Moonset:  5:30 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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October 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 68°    SE MO 64° to  68°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66°    West KY 64° to 66°    NW TN 65° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest and north wind 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 6:38 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46°     MO  40° to 45°     South IL  40° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Light northwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:58 PM
Moonset:  6:27 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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October 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64°    SE MO 60° to  65°    South IL  60° to 65°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65°    West KY 62° to 65°    NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 6:36 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Colder.  Patchy fog.  I will monitor the chance of frost over parts of MO/IL.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°     MO  38° to 44°     South IL  38° to 44°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 40° to 44°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Light north wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:23 PM
Moonset:  7:24 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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October 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cool.  A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66°    SE MO 63° to  66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming west southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 6:35 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of a shower late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°     MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 42° to 46°     NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:48 PM
Moonset:  8:21 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous.

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October 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 63° to  66°    South IL  63° to 66°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 6:33 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~  30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48°     MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45°    West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 8:16 PM
Moonset:  9:17 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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What is the UV index?

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1.  Monday rain.
2.  Much cooler air is on the way.
3.  Light frost can’t be ruled out Friday night across portions of southeast MO and southern IL.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

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Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through October 2nd:  At this time severe weather is not anticipated.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated September 28th.

I am watching temperatures Friday night.  It is possible that a few spots dip into the upper 30s.  Light frost would be possible if that happens.  This is more likely over northern portions of southeast Missouri, and central and northern portions of southern Illinois.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

1. 1.   Monday rain chances.
   2.   Much cooler week on tap for the region.
   3.   Monitoring the potential of upper 30s for some counties Friday night.
   4.   Monitoring another rain maker Sunday/Monday.

Widespread rain overspread the region late night.  I have picked up over 0.70″ at the Weather Observatory.  The expectation was widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″ with locally higher totals.

Decent rain.  Some of us needed rain.  It has been dry for a while.  Fire season is here.  I know many farmers would rather not have the rain.

The good news for farmers is that Tuesday into Saturday afternoon is forecast to remain dry.

A few showers may remain tonight.  For the most part, the rain on radar (at this time) is the bulk of the event.

Temperatures today will actually peak this morning across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Temperatures will then hold steady or slowly fall.  This is possible over Kentucky/Tennessee if the front speeds up a bit.

This is an autumn cold front!

As noted last week, clouds can be hard to clear during the autumn months.  Clouds may linger into tonight and Tuesday.  Hopefully, the stratus will erode some so we can grab some sunshine.  For now, I have intervals of clouds tonight and tomorrow.  A slight chance of a light shower tonight.

Much cooler air will filter into the region over the coming 12 to 24 hours.  As a matter of fact, some locations may dip into the upper 30s Thursday and Friday night.  Perhaps most likely Friday night.

Another cold front will push through the region Wednesday.  This front will be moisture starved.  Rain is unlikely.  It will help reinforce the cool air.

If that happens then a light frost could occur.  This is more likely over northern portions of southeast Missouri and central and northern portions of southern Illinois.

This does not appear to be a killing frost situation.

Another system is forecast to push into the region Saturday night and Sunday.  That would bring additional shower chances.  Perhaps some thunderstorms.  For now, this doesn’t appear to be a severe weather event.

As a reminder, October and November can bring tornadoes to our region.  Some of our deadlier tornadoes have occurred during the autumn months.  Let’s be weather aware over the coming weeks.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  September 28th through October 4th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers  October 5th through October 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″

This outlook covers October 9th through October 22nd

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

 

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Fall Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

September Temperature Outlook (prelim)

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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)

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The October Outlook has been posted.

Temperatures

AN means above average temperatures.

Precipitation

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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)

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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)

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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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