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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** I will be off tomorrow through Sunday. I was supposed to take last Sunday to this Wednesday off. Tropical Storm Beta messed that up! **
I am going to have to monitor MOnday and Tuesday’s forecast. There are extreme model differences. Some show severe storms. Other models show nothing significant.
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A low-end chance of lightning Sunday night/Monday. I am monitoring Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. I am monitoring next Monday night and Tuesday
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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September 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Warmer north and cooler south (where clouds linger).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% Bootheel and 0% north IL ~ 20% far southern IL and 0% far north KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Clearing. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° MO 56° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Calm wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:52 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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September 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° SE MO 75° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° MO 60° to 64° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:44 PM
Moonset: 12:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 54° to 58° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:28 PM
Moonset: 1:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° SE MO 82° to 85° South IL 82° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° West KY 82° to 85° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 6:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 5:06 PM
Moonset: 2:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
There are LARGE differences in the Monday/Tuesday forecast among models.
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 6:42 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Ending west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
Moonrise: 5:38 PM
Moonset: 3:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 6:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:07 PM
Moonset: 4:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 6:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:33 PM
Moonset: 5:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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October 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 72° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest and north wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 6:38 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:58 PM
Moonset: 6:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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October 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 6:36 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 42° to 45° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:23 PM
Moonset: 7:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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What is the UV index?
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- No significant weather concerns.
- Mild temperatures into the weekend (other than cooler today where clouds linger).
Click to enlarge the graphics.
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Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through September 30th: At this time severe weather is not anticipated. I will keep an eye on Monday and Tuesday. Some models show thunderstorms.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated September 24th through 27th, 2020.
No major concerns.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Some clouds. A few remaining light showers.
- A warm weekend.
- A stronger cold front next week.
Good day, everyone. I was supposed to take last Sunday to Wednesday off. Tropical Storm Beta messed those plans up.
I am planning on taking tomorrow through Sunday off. I have some business to attend to.
Let’s take a look at our weather pattern into next week.
We still have clouds in our region. Most of this is the upper-level low that has been slowing moving across the region.
Rain totals, thus far, have been 0.00″ to 0.10″.
There will still be some light showers today. Especially over extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and Tennessee. This activity will continue to push east/southeast as the day wears on.
Clouds will linger and this will help keep temperatures lower. Areas with sunshine will be several degrees warmer. That is more likely across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Clouds are more likely as you move further and further southeast.
Most likely, dry weather will be the rule Friday through Sunday afternoon.
A weak cold front moves into the area Saturday night and Sunday. At one time, it appeared a band of showers and thunderstorms would accompany the front. Now it appears the chance of that is low.
I can’t 100% rule out a stray shower along the front Saturday night/Sunday but most areas will remain dry.
A stronger cold front arrives Sunday night into Tuesday. I do have a chance of showers/storms along that front. Although, it does not appear to be a big deal. See the daily details at the top of the page.
Temperatures will be above normal Friday through Sunday. Sunday will be the warmest day. It will feel like late summer. High temperatures in the 80s. A bit humid, as well.
An oddity in the models.
The EC model guidance shows severe weather in our region Monday and Tuesday. The GFS model shows nothing like that.
EC model
GFS
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Cooler air filters in behind the second cold front Sunday night into next week.
Check out the dew point forecast.
Dew point determines how humid it feels outside. 60s is fairly humid. 70 is muggy.
This is Sunday’s dew points.
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Check out the dry air behind the second cold front. This is next Wednesday and then I posted next Sunday.
Monday through Sunday will deliver lower dew points.
Wednesday
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Next Sunday
Some of the model guidance is showing temperatures falling into the 30s next Thursday/Friday. Models have handled the long range temperatures poorly over the past few weeks. A cold shot of air appears likely. Just how cold will need to be monitored.
If we do dip into the 30s then frost would be possible. For now, let’s just keep an eye on mid to late next week for cooler/colder air.
Let’s look at temperature anomalies
Average high temperatures are around 84 and average low temperatures are around 59
Sunday vs next week
Sunday temperature anomalies. Above average in the red.
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EC model guidance temperature anomaly for nex Tuesday morning. Well below average.
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It does remain dry over most of the area. Fire season is upon us. We could use more rain. I guess farmers need dry weather to bring in the crops. Give and take.
Rainfall forecast through next Thursday. Not much.
This may be general. It may end up even lower than these numers.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers September 24th through September 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers October 30th through October 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers October 8th through October 19th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
Updated after 9 AM – check back.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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