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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Wednesday – Partly sunny and warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 90’s
Winds: East winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: Variable winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Friday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Friday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Small thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Sunday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Monday – Some clouds and warm. Much of the same. Small shower or thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Summer warmth this week
2. How is the front looking for early next week
3. Long range active weather starting to show up as seasons change?
4. Let’s review my August forecast
Above normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday. This as high pressure dominates our region. Ridge of high pressure during the summer months equals warm/hot temperatures. And, this week will deliver just that.
Expect temperatures to stay warm right on through the weekend.
Here is the low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning
and the high temperature forecast for Wednesday
How about the departures? How many degrees above normal will temperatures be on Wednesday? Several!
If you read yesterday’s post you will remember that I am tracking a cold front for early next week. Some questions remain on the strength of the front and the timing.
Models have not been in agreement on this topic. The GFS model and ensembles want to bring the front through the region by Monday. The EC model, however, wants to stall or weaken the front well to our north. The difference means rain vs dry weather for Sunday and Monday.
Right now the consensus in the data is to slow the progress of this front and associated disturbance until Monday or Tuesday. Models have been trending slower and slower with its passage. Trends are always important. Trends are what meteorologists monitor to get a feel as to which direction the data is moving. A slowing trend would be good news. It might mean Sunday and Monday remain dry.
I will continue to monitor the data. I have kept chances for precipitation small for Sunday and Monday.
This is the latest GFS model. See the pink/purple/blue colors? That represents rainfall. You can see an area of low pressure north of Minnesota. Cold front would trail back into the Central Plains. Yesterday the GFS model had the front over our region on Monday. Now, it has slowed down a bit.
The data is likely correct on there being a cold front to deal with next week. The question will be timing and strength. For now I will keep rain chances low for Sunday and Monday. And, if we are lucky then it will just remain dry for the holiday weekend. I say lucky…some of us could use rain.
Here is the GFS surface map projection for Tuesday night. The front still remains to our west and is actually weakening.
If you remember from past posts, I always tell you that the GFS is one of the worst models. The EC said Sunday and Monday would be mostly dry all along. Appears the EC may once again be right. I can’t post the EC maps because of copyright laws. They don’t like their data shared.
Still several days to monitor this cold front. I will track it and update accordingly.
The main story this week will be dry weather and warm/hot weather. Expect little change day by day through the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. Light winds, overall. Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees. Little in the way of precipitation chances.
One item of interest in the long range (10-16 days) is that I am starting to see signals of the seasons starting to change. A more active jet stream. Possibly a more active weather pattern. Models do not handle change well. The changing of the seasons typically throw the models into a bit of chaos. Especially the further out you look ahead. But, it is something I am starting to see in the data.
I know our quiet weather will not last. It never does during the fall months.
My summer forecast was for the Missouri and Ohio Valleys to have below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Here is the temperature verification
Everything in green was below normal in the temperature department.
Zooming in
And here is the precipitation chart. Well above normal precipitation occurred over a very large area.
Zooming in
Overall the summer forecast turned out pretty much as expected. There were some hot days in July. It felt hotter because of the very high dew point readings. But, overall the numbers for June, July, and August spelled below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
AUGUST REVIEW (will post it again today in case you missed it on Monday)
My August forecast was for the majority of days to deliver at or below normal temperatures. My precipitation forecast was for normal to above normal totals.
Without a doubt the temperature forecast more than verified. Temperatures were mostly below normal. Impressive numbers for an extended period of time. Coolish for much of August. I think many of you enjoyed the August weather pattern.
The precipitation across our region was mixed. Some spots had well above normal rainfall. Some of you had normal rainfall. And, quite a few spots were drier than normal.
Here are some charts showing you the August numbers
Here was the temperature anomaly for August. Quiet impressive anomalies.
Precipitation was a bit mixed. Some places had a lot more rain than others. That is not uncommon during the summer months. Slow moving thunderstorm complexes can drop a lot of rain on some counties while neighboring areas miss out.
These maps are from the High Plains Regional Climate Center.
This first map shows you how many inches of rain fell during August. Much of the area ended up with 1-2 inches of rain.
Here is a map from weatherbell.com This shows how much rain fell over the past month. Hard to read. Scale is on the right. If you are good at geography then you should be able to find our region. Heaviest rains in our region were over southern Missouri. Click to enlarge
This next map shows you the percent of normal rainfall. Some places had more than 150% of normal rainfall. Other areas had 50%-70% of normal rainfall. Quite a wide range across our region.
And, finally this is the departure from normal rainfall in inches. Parts of our region were 1 to 1.5″ below normal. Other areas were 1.5-2″+ above normal. Again, a wide range of rainfall totals over the region.
Let’s look back at the summer (June through August). Check out the flip in temperatures. The chart below shows you the high and low temperatures for June through August. The solid blue bars are the high and low temperatures. In June we had numerous days above normal (red rectangle). Then look at August (right side of the chart). Much of August was below normal in the temperature department (blue rectangle box). The Paducah, KY NWS only hit 95 degrees twice during the summer months.
Click image for a larger view
Zooming in on August. All the yellow areas represent below normal temperature days. This is for the Paducah, Kentucky area.
The blue bars are the high and low temperatures. The red line represents the record high for that day. The light blue line represents the record low for that day. The brownish area represents what normal values should be.
And, it was a very wet summer. Check out these numbers. The brown line represents normal rainfall. The green line is this years rainfall. Well well well above normal. This chart shows you June through August.
My September forecast is for more days to be at or above normal in the temperature department and drier than normal in the precipitation department. We will see how it goes. There are some cracks starting to show up in the data for the second and third week of the month. Meaning, colder than normal temperatures. If that happens then it could bust my September forecast thinking. We will see how it goes.
Remember that long range forecasting is usually low confidence forecasting.
My October forecast is for below normal temperatures. Not sure on precipitation just yet.
All signs point towards a colder than normal winter.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major widespread rainfall events anticipated through Saturday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Wednesday.
.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns for the coming days. Calm weather. Let’s enjoy this pattern while it lasts.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
