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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
Rain chances may vary quite a bit Saturday and Sunday.
There is also a chance of a few showers today near Hopkinsville.
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. Yes, some lightning will be possible this week. Tuesday night into Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. I will be keeping an eye on the remnants of Hurricane Sally
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Sally’s heavier rain will likely remain to our south and east. I will keep a close eye on it.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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September 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some patchy morning fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 78° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:03 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:03 AM
Moonset: 5:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 80° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 7:02 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A slight chance of a shower over western Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:14 AM
Moonset: 6:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 7:00 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 7:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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September 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 82° to 84° NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 6:59 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Any remaining showers will come to an end. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 6:40 AM
Moonset: 7:35 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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September 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Becoming mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° West KY 76° to 78° NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 6:57 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:53 AM
Moonset: 8:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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September 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 6:56 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:07 AM
Moonset: 8:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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September 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 6:54 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:21 AM
Moonset: 9:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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September 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:53 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:34 AM
Moonset: 9:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Monitoring Hurricane Sally and its eventual track.
- Cooler this week than last week.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
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Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through September 20th: Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated September 14, 2020
Monitor updates concerning the eventual track of Hurricane Sally. The brunt of it should remain to our south and east.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- A cooler week ahead.
- Monitoring Hurricane Sally.
- Rain chances Tuesday night into Thursday.
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I hope you had a nice weekend.
We did have some rain across the region Saturday. Some areas picked up more than two inches of rain. Others received no measurable rainfall.
The main weather story this week will be the eventual track of Hurricane Sally and a cold frontal passage.
A cold front passed through the region Sunday afternoon and night. You should be able to tell a difference in the air-mass today.
It is less humid. A bit cooler. Feels a bit more like autumn.
Last week we had multiple warm and somewhat humid days. A few hot days, as well.
That won’t be the case this week. Highs today into Wednesday will mostly be in the lower to middle 80s.
We will have gusty winds over the coming days. Mostly out of the northeast. A tighter pressure gradient will be developing between the high pressure and Hurricane Sally.
Hurricane Sally will eventually come ashore in Louisiana and Mississippi. This system will slowly move north and northeast.
It appears the brunt of Sally will remain to our south and east. That will spare us of the widespread heavy rain that is typically associated with these systems.
With that said, some of the outer bands of Sally will likely bring at least a few showers to our region Tuesday night into Thursday. The chances will be a bit higher over Kentucky/Tennessee since they will be closer to the southern system.
Rain totals across Missouri and Illinois will likely be in the 0.00″ to 0.40″ range. Higher totals over Kentucky/Tennessee (esp southern portions). You can expect 0.25″ to 0.60″. Highest along the KY/TN State line southward.
Any change in the eventual track of Sally will impact our sensible weather. Thus, monitor updates moving forward.
In addition to the above, another cold front will push across the region Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring a few showers and cooler air for the weekend.
The cold front will sweep the remnants of Sally off to the east, as well.
Models show lows in the 50s Friday through Sunday night. If you remember, the models showed the same last week and the cool air never arrived.
I will keep an eye on trends. For now, I do have a cooler air-mass Thursday into Sunday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers September 14th through September 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers September 21st through 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers September 25th through October 8th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The Preliminary October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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