I am tracking two weather makers.
The first one arrives late tonight into Sunday. This one will bring showers to the region. Some thunderstorms can’t be ruled out late tonight in southeast Missouri. No severe weather anticipated.
A widespread light rain event is likely Sunday. Rain totals of 0.10″ to 0.40″ are anticipated. This is slightly higher than previous forecasts.
Here is the Hrrr future-cast radar. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
Click image to enlarge
The highest totals will be across southeast Missouri.
The system will be weakening as it moves further east.
Winds will be strong and gusty from the south and southwest on Sunday. Winds of 15 to 30 mph will be common. There will be some gusts above 40 mph.
These will be gradient winds. Gradient winds are caused by rising and falling barometric pressure readings.
Here is the NAM 3K model wind gust forecast. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner of the animation.
Several models are showing winds above 40 mph. It appears a good bet as the cold front moves through the area.
The next weather system arrives Monday into Monday night. This one will bring additional showers and possibly thunderstorms to the region.
There is some chatter about potentially severe weather. The problem with forecasting severe weather days in advance is the amount of uncertainty. This is a potent system. It has potential. Potential does not, however, always equal reality.
Yes, there is certainly some potential of severe thunderstorms in or near our region. With that said, today’s model guidance backed over the north and northwest extent of the severe weather.
The main concern appears to be across Kentucky and Tennessee (and then south from there). Whether the threat extends into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will be dependent on the track of the area of low pressure. This remains a question.
The best advice is to monitor updates on Sunday. The time-frame of concern will be late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
The main concern will be damaging wind and QLCS tornadoes. QLCS tornadoes are normally short-lived and difficult to issue warnings on.
Here is the NAM 3K model future-cast radar. What it believes radar will look like into Monday night.
You can see at the end of the loop the line of showers and storms with the more potent system.
Occasionally, these systems can produce severe weather without much lightning. Keep that in mind.
Rainfall totals of 0.75″ to 1.50″ are anticipated from the Monday event. Locally higher totals are certainly possible. Most of us do not need rain.
Another system will bring additional rain chances around Wednesday/Thursday. That system will bring colder air behind it. Perhaps the coldest air of the season, thus far.
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