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Today: A quick update to the blog today. Video for subscribers https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
Scattered thunderstorms are possible. Lightning would be the main concern. A few storms along the MO/AR border could produce damaging winds gusts and nickel size hail.
See the radar and lightning data links.
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Tomorrow: No.
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Today through Monday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning is possible on Saturday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Low risk. Small risk of severe storms along the MO/AR border into western TN Saturday afternoon and evening.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.
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Tuesday through Friday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Some lightning will be possible next week. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms. An active pattern is possible over the next few weeks.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Some strong storms are possible Monday night into Thursday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor updates. Locally heavy rain is possible starting over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as early as Monday night and continuing into Thursday. The bulk of the area may remain dry Monday through Tuesday. Western parts of southeast Missouri and northwestern portions of southern Illinois will have some scattered showers and storms as early as Monday/Monday night. The stalled front will be slow to move east/southeast. The greatest rain coverage will likely be Wednesday into Thursday. Monitor updates. Some water issues are possible.
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
Here is a new regional radar that we offer. Click here
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April 27, 2019
** UPDATE**
Clouds have cleared in some areas and temperatures are quickly climbing into the 70’s. Most of the rain has now shifted eastward. There are still some showers over southern IL and western KY.
Some additional showers and thunderstorms are possible as the cold front moves into the region tonight. A thin line may form. Storms could produce lightning, gusty winds, and pea size hail. There is a small risk of larger hail.
Temperature forecasts today have been adjusted upward. Again, areas with the sun will quickly rise into the upper 60’s to upper 70’s (depending on the amount and duration of sunshine).
Saturday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Becoming cloudy as the day wears on. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be intense near the MO/AR border into the MO Bootheel/NW TN. See radars. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 64° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps a period of numerous showers and thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 2 to 5 (cloud cover in some areas will keep it lower). Low to high. Low in areas with clouds, of course.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy the first half of the night. A chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight. A band of showers and thunderstorms will move west to east as a cold front passes. A few storms could be intense near the MO/AR border into the MO Bootheel/NW TN. Clearing late. Cool. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: SW to W at 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. A band of showers and thunderstorms will move west to east as a cold front passes.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 7:41 PM
Moonrise: 2:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:51 PM
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April 28, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Morning clouds. Clearing. Becoming partly to mostly sunny. Windy and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: North winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty. Winds becoming east at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High. Areas with clouds will be lower, of course.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over far northwest portions of southeast Missouri and northwest parts of southern Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 20% IL 20% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the area. A few spotty showers/storms far far northwest part of the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning western parts of southeast MO towards Randolph County, IL.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:42 PM
Moonrise: 3:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:47 PM
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April 29, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from Butler County, MO northeast towards Jefferson County in Illinois. Most of the area will remain dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered across southeast MO and southern IL Most of my forecast counties should remain dry. Areas from Poplar Bluff northeast into Perry County, Missouri and then northeast towards Mt. Vernon may see a few spotty showers and storms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None across most of my area. Wet roads and lightning in the above-mentioned areas.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars if you live in SE MO and south IL.
UV Index: 8 Very high. Areas with clouds will be lower, of course.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Mainly far NW closer to Bollinger County, MO north to Randolph County and Jefferson Counties in southern Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 58° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered over northwestern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Most of the area may remain dry Monday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning over a few of my forecast counties (mainly far NW closer to Bollinger County, MO north to Randolph County and Jefferson Counties in southern Illinois).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 7:42 PM
Moonrise: 3:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:47 PM
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Rain chances next week will likely need adjusting as confidence levels increase as far as timing and coverage. Several chances of rain are likely.
The best chance of rain will be along and north of a stalled frontal boundary. Where that boundary sets up will be key to your rain chances.
The last few days we witnessed the bulk of rain in Missouri and Illinois. That could happen again. Monitor updates.
Tuesday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. A 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 60% chance at night over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with a 40% chance elsewhere. Greatest chances of rain Tuesday/Tuesday night will be from Poplar Bluff, MO northeast towards Marion, IL and then northeast from there. Placement of the stalled front is key to rain chances. Monitor updates. High temperatures in the 75 to 60 degree range. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southeast wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
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Wednesday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. A 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 50% chance at night. High temperatures in the upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southwest wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
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Thursday: Medium confidence. Cloudy. Warm. A 60% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 40% chance at night. High temperatures in the middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle 50’s. South and southwest wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds becoming west and northwest late Thursday at speeds of 8 to 16 mph.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: A few intense storms are possible late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening along the MO/AR border into western Tennessee. Otherwise, the severe weather risk is low.
Monday through Friday: I can’t rule out strong to severe storms next week. Monitor updates. The timing of the upper-level disturbances will need to be monitored next week.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
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Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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This map shows precipitation totals.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Totals added together. This includes day one through seven.
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- Rain chances today.
- Windy today into Sunday.
- Rain chances into the new work-week.
Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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I increased rain coverage today.
I added the mention of a few strong storms this afternoon/evening along the MO/AR border.
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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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Today: Lightning will be possible. A low-end severe risk along the MO/AR border.
Tonight: Lightning will be possible mostly before midnight. A low-end severe risk along the MO/AR border.
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Forecast discussion.
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Saturday and Sunday.
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A fast-moving storm system will push across the central United States today.
This system will bring heavy snow to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Yes, heavy snow. Hard to believe that it is almost May and we are talking about a snowstorm to our north. A fairly rare late-season event.
A cold front will help spark showers and thunderstorms in our local area.
Guidance over the past 24 hours has increased the coverage of the rain. I bumped up rain chances, as well.
There will likely be some thunderstorm development, as well.
A few intense storms are possible near the MO/AR State line. A small severe thunderstorm risk. I will be keeping an eye on it.
Otherwise, mainly light rain showers with a few claps of thunder will be possible across the rest of the region today and tonight.
The rain chances will increase after 10 AM this morning. See radars to track the rain.
A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight along the cold front.
Clearing sky conditions late with cool temperatures.
It will be windy today into tomorrow. Gusts today could top 35 mph. Same for tonight.
Rainfall totals of 0.00″ to 0.25″ are going to occur with this event. Some areas may receive no rain.
Totals will be a bit higher where thunderstorms occur. That is typically the case.
Long Range
Monday through Thursday
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A series of cold fronts, stationary fronts, and upper-level disturbances. Heavy rain is likely across portions of the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. We will need to monitor the timing and track of each system.
The heaviest rain may end up a tad north of my forecast counties. The placement of the front is key to the placement of the heavier rain.
The greatest rain chances will be along and north of a stalled frontal boundary. The odds favor the heaviest rains being placed over Missouri and Illinois. How far south becomes the next question.
I have mentioned at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Monday into Wednesday/Thursday.
The greatest coverage locally should end up being Wednesday into Thursday.
There remain some questions on the exact placement of the stalled frontal boundary.
Notice on this rainfall map where the heaviest totals have been placed? Notice the sharp cut-off in totals to the east/southeast?
That is because of the stalled frontal boundary. Again, placement of the heavy rain is still in play.
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
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Here is the Hrrr model guidance.
Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model. You can see how it handles tomorrow’s rain chances.
Time-stamp upper left.
You can see the spotty showers and thunderstorms on Saturday moving west to east.
The NAM keeps a few showers into Saturday night. Ending west to east as the night wears on.
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Here is the GFS future-cast radar. GFS is another model.
Time-stamp upper left.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Tonight’s WeatherBrain features Dr. Harold Brooks from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Dr. Brooks earned his undergraduate degree in physics and mathematics at William Jewell College outside of Kansas City and performed graduate study at Columbia University. Dr. Brooks earned his PhD on thunderstorm modeling at the University of Illinois.
In addition, our second Guest WeatherBrain Dr. Victor Gensini of Northern Illinois University joins us this week. Dr. Gensini earned his Masters Degree on severe thunderstorm climatology, and wrote his dissertation on severe thunderstorms and climate change. His current focus is on sub-seasonal to seasonal variability, and how that drives weather patterns across the United States. Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Differences in severe weather events in Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley
- Future product in-between Watch and Warning to warn residents of manufactured homes?
- National Weather Round-up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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