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Today: No.
Tomorrow: lightning. Isolated severe risk Saturday night near MO and AR border.
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- Spotty showers Saturday and perhaps Sunday.
- An active/wet pattern over the coming weeks with numerous chances of showers and thunderstorms.
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Today through Sunday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated lightning is possible on Saturday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.
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Monday through Thursday night.
- Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Some lightning will be possible next week. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms. An active pattern is possible over the next few weeks.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor updates.
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Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
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April 26, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Breezy, at times. Increasing wind overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will monitor fog chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
Moonrise: 1:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:56 AM
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April 27, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler. Windy. Widely scattered showers or thunderstorms. The greatest risk will be across northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. That would be from Perry County, MO northeast towards Franklin County, IL and then north/northeast from there. Lesser chances south of that line.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 65° to 70° South IL 65° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 3 to 5 (cloud cover in some areas will keep it lower). Low to moderate.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Clearing. Cool. Rain showers and a thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: SW to W at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:41 PM
Moonrise: 2:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:51 PM
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April 28, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: East winds at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 Very high. Areas with clouds will be lower, of course.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Breezy. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 7:42 PM
Moonrise: 3:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:47 PM
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Rain chances next week will likely need adjusting as confidence levels increase as far as timing and coverage. Several chances of rain are likely.
The best chance of rain will be along and north of a stalled frontal boundary. Where that boundary sets up will be key to your rain chances.
The last few days we witnessed the bulk of rain in Missouri and Illinois. That could happen again. Monitor updates.
Monday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures in the lower 70’s north to near 80 near the KY/TN border. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southeast wind 7 to 14 mph and gusty.
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Tuesday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. A 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 40% chance at night. High temperatures in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southeast wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
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Wednesday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. A 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 40% chance at night. High temperatures in the upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southwest wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
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This will be updated at 8 AM
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Small severe risk near MO and AR border.
Sunday through Friday: I can’t rule out severe storms next week. Monitor updates. The timing of the upper-level disturbances will need to be monitored next week.
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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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This map shows precipitation totals.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
- A nice day ahead of us.
- Scattered showers and storms Saturday into the middle of next week. Watching heavy rain potential (for some).
- Saturday will be cool and windy. Highs may remain in the 60’s in most areas. That will mix with gusty winds to make it feel even cooler.
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Current conditions.
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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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Lowered tonight’s low temperatures.
Lowered Saturday’s temperatures.
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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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Not today. Not tonight.
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Forecast discussion.
Forecast
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The summer forecast has been updated. Scroll down further for numerous graphics.
The May outlook has been updated. Potentially, wet.
May temperature and precipitation outlook update.
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Today through the weekend.
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Some areas picked up copious amounts of rain on Thursday. Other areas had very little, yet again.
Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois have been reporting the heaviest rain totals. Some areas exceeded three inches for the three-day totals.
The least amount of rain fell over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
I was a little disappointed in the Kentucky and Tennessee rain numbers. I thought they would be a bit higher. We didn’t actually need the rain. In the end, we need to dry the fields out for the farmers.
The rain system has now pulled away from our region. That will leave us with a decent Friday. It will be a tad windy, at times.
Dry today into tonight.
I am tracking weak disturbances that will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the region starting on Saturday and part of Saturday night.
The greatest chance of rain on Saturday will be across the northern parts of southeast Missouri and the northern parts of southern Illinois. Chances decrease the further south you travel.
Saturday will be windy and cool. Gusty winds will make it feel like temperatures are in the 50’s and 60’s.
Showers and thunderstorm chances will decrease Saturday night and eventually end west to east.
Sunday should be dry. Some of the guidance paints isolated showers. For now, I removed any mention of rain.
The Saturday system will bring snow to Wisconsin and northern Illinois. It is late in the year for snow.
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Snowfall forecast.
A band of heavy wet snow is likely across parts of southern Wisconsin and could even spread into northern Illinois.
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Long Range
Monday through Thursday
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An active weather pattern is likely as we move into the coming weeks.
Most guidance indicates a series of cold fronts, stationary fronts, and upper-level disturbances. Heavy rain is likely across portions of the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. We will need to monitor the timing and track of each system.
It is still a bit early to nail down exact times.
The greatest rain chances will be along and north of a stalled frontal boundary. The odds favor the heaviest rains being placed over Missouri and Illinois. How far south becomes the next question.
Several inches of rain are likely over the coming seven days along and north of the front.
Areas to the south of the front will have shower and thunderstorm chances, as well. The rain won’t be as heavy.
The exact placement of the front is key to the forecast. Monitor updates moving forward.
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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
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Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model. You can see how it handles tomorrow’s rain chances.
Time-stamp upper left.
You can see the spotty showers and thunderstorms on Saturday moving west to east.
The NAM keeps a few showers into Saturday night. Ending west to east as the night wears on.
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Here is the GFS future-cast radar. GFS is another model.
Time-stamp upper left.
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Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.
Notice the heaviest rain bands over Missouri and Illinois.
We will have to monitor the placement of the stalled frontal boundary.
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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Precipitation outlook
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Preliminary summer outlook
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Tonight’s WeatherBrain features Dr. Harold Brooks from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Dr. Brooks earned his undergraduate degree in physics and mathematics at William Jewell College outside of Kansas City and performed graduate study at Columbia University. Dr. Brooks earned his PhD on thunderstorm modeling at the University of Illinois.
In addition, our second Guest WeatherBrain Dr. Victor Gensini of Northern Illinois University joins us this week. Dr. Gensini earned his Masters Degree on severe thunderstorm climatology, and wrote his dissertation on severe thunderstorms and climate change. His current focus is on sub-seasonal to seasonal variability, and how that drives weather patterns across the United States. Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Differences in severe weather events in Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley
- Future product in-between Watch and Warning to warn residents of manufactured homes?
- National Weather Round-up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
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