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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am closely watching Friday into Sunday as Hurricane Delta moves northward. I am also watching October 13th for a cold front.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates on the eventual track of Hurricane Delta.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Hurricane Delta. Heavy rain is likely along the track of that system. There remain questions about the track.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary. Just keep that in mind.
October 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 6:30 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° MO 50° to 52° South IL 50° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 52° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:21 PM
Moonset: 11:13 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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October 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A bit warmer. Nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:29 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Light east wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset: 12:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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October 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny over the southern half of the region. Mostly sunny north. More clouds KY/TN vs IL/MO.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:28 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower along the KY/TN state line.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 55° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:49 PM
Moonset: 1:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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October 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy over the south and southeastern half of the region. That includes far SE MO, far southern IL, west KY. west TN. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 6:26 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° MO 52° to 54° South IL 52° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast wind 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:43 PM
Moonset: 2:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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October 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy over the south and southeastern half of the region. That includes far SE MO, far southern IL, west KY. west TN. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 75° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 75° West KY 70° to 75° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 4. High.
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 6:25 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° MO 55° to 60° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 2:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Frost possible Monday morning.
- Dry weather.
- Field fires.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
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Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
From the UK Agriculture Weather Center.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through October 12th: ** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary. Just keep that in mind.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 6th
** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary. Just keep that in mind.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Calm weather.
- Mild days. Cool nights.
- Dry through Friday.
- Watching the tropics for any forecast adjustments.
** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary. Just keep that in mind.
Calm weather today into Thursday. Nice temperatures. Dry.
The main weather story continues to be Hurricane Delta. Will this hurricane impact our region?
Here is the latest National Hurricane Center track path
Model guidance has trended slightly further west over the last 24 to 48 hours. With that said, there is still a lot of questions with where this hurricane will come ashore.
This is typical. Hurricanes are tricky to forecast.
If Delta were to impact our region, it would be late Thursday night and especially Friday/Saturday.
Odds are higher as you travel south and east vs west and north.
The WPC has placed a band of heavy rain across portions of our region. The National Weather Service is not yet ready to jump on the WPC solution.
The GFS model shows heavy rain in our region. The EC model does not.
Thus, there are disagreements among the model packages.
I did increase rain chances, especially across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee. Adjustments are likely.
GFS model. Rainfall forecast through Sunday morning.
EC model guidance rainfall forecast. See the difference?
Here is the WPC rainfall forecast through Sunday morning.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Currently, no rain is forecast.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Currently, no rain is forecast.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Currently, no rain is forecast.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
I am watching Delta
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
I am watching Delta
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 6th through October 12th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers October 13th through October 19th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers October 20th through November 2nd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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