Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 7, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.   Lightning is possible Friday night into Sunday.  I am also watching next Tuesday/Wednesday.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Monitor.  Monitor updates on the eventual track of Hurricane Delta.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor.  I am watching Hurricane Delta.  Heavy rain is likely along the track of that system.  There remain questions about the track.  The ground is dry.  Flash flooding is a low risk, but not zero.  Monitor updates.  Tropical systems can produce heavy rain.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  No.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

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October 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast
: Mostly sunny. A bit warmer.  Nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 88°    SE MO 85° to  88°    South IL  85° to 88°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 88°    West KY 85° to 88°    NW TN 85° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming south southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:29 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56°     MO  53° to 56°     South IL  53° to 56°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°    West KY 53° to 56°     NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset:  12:12 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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October 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°    SE MO 80° to  82°    South IL  80° to 82°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82°    West KY 80° to 84°    NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:28 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Most likely dry.  Small chance of showers near the KY/TN border.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60°     MO  55° to 60°     South IL  55° to 60°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:49 PM
Moonset:  1:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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October 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Increasing clouds from the south.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84°    SE MO 78° to  82°    South IL  78° to 82°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82°    West KY 78° to 82°    NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed:  Wind becoming southeast and south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 6:26 PM
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Friday night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.  Chances are highest across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~  30%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°     MO  58° to 64°     South IL  58° to 64°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64°    West KY 60° to 64°     NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 11:43 PM
Moonset:  2:03 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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October 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Coverage will be higher across our southern counties vs our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~  50%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75°    SE MO 74° to  76°    South IL  74° to 76°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 75°    West KY 72° to 75°    NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast and east at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 6:25 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%    IL ~  50%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64°     MO  56° to 60°     South IL  56° to 58°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60°    West KY 56° to 58°     NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 15 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous across the southern half of the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset:  2:54 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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October 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW CONFIDENCE

Still some timing issues with Delta.  It may move faster.  If so, rain would end Sunday morning.

Sunday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Coverage will be higher across our southern counties vs northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°    SE MO 74° to  78°    South IL  74° to 78°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°    West KY 73° to 76°    NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.  Some debate on how fast Delta pushes away from the region.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with higher rain chances.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:00AM
Sunset: 6:23 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:   Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~  10%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60°     MO  55° to 60°     South IL  55° to 60°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast wind 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:45 AM
Moonset:  3:39 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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October 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast
:  A few clouds.  Mild temperatures.  A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80°    SE MO 75° to  80°    South IL  75° to 80°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°    West KY 75° to 80°    NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:01AM
Sunset: 6:22 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 62°     MO  55° to 60°     South IL  55° to 58°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60°    West KY 55° to 60°     NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 1:51 AM
Moonset:  4:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Monitoring Hurricane Delta
  2.  Rain is the concern and gusty wind.

 

Click to enlarge the graphics.

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Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.

From the UK Agriculture Weather Center.

 

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through October 12th:

Severe weather appears unlikely.  I am watching Hurricane Delta.

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated October 7th

I continue to watch Hurricane Delta.  The eventual track will be key to our weekend forecast.

Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

 

    1.   Mild days.  Cool nights.
    2.   Dry through Friday.
    3.   Watching the tropics for any forecast adjustments.

 

I raised temperatures a bit today.  A few degrees warmer.

There is only one weather story.  Powerful Hurricane Delta.  This one is a beast.  It was a category four yesterday.  It weakened a bit last night.

It is forecast to strengthen later today and tomorrow.  Bad news for the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain will spread into our region Friday into Sunday.  There is a lot of discussion about the timing of the higher rain probabilities.

For now, it appears Saturday/Saturday night will have peak chances.  If it slows a bit then rain chances continue into Sunday.

A few scattered showers will be possible Friday and Friday night.  The rain will increase in coverage Saturday into Saturday night/Sunday.

There could be some locally heavy rain.  Especially across the Missouri Bootheel into extreme southern illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.  Some locations could receive more than two inches of rain.

The ground is dry.  Flash flooding appears to be a lower end risk with this particular system.  This is especially true because we have not received much rain over the past month.

I am not overly concerned about wind damage or tornadoes.  Not at this point.  The system would have to track way west for me to be concerned about that.

I have increased rain probabilities for the weekend.

I will continue to monitor the track of the system.  Hurricanes can be rather fickle.  For now, the above forecast is the most likely scenario.

Here is the latest WPC rainfall forecast.  Subject to adjustments!  The track of Delta is key to rain totals.

 

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

 

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the EC model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  October 7th through October 13th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers  October 14th through October 20th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″

This outlook covers October 20th through November 2nd 

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

Updated after 9:30.  Check back.

 

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Fall Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

September Temperature Outlook (prelim)

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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)

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The October Outlook has been posted.

Temperatures

AN means above average temperatures.

 

Precipitation

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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)

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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)

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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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