Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 5, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Monday to Monday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  No.  I will be closely monitoring the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  Adjustments to the forecast are possible.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.  I will be closely monitoring the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  Adjustments to the forecast are possible.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. I will be closely monitoring the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  Adjustments to the forecast are possible.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  Possible.  Frost is possible Monday morning.

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

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October 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence

** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary.  Just keep that in mind.

Monday Forecast: AM frost will be possible.  Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 68°    SE MO 64° to  68°    South IL  64° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 65° to 68°    NW TN 65° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy AM frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 6:32 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45°     MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 44°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44°    West KY 42° to 45°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:47 PM
Moonset:  10:15 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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October 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Tuesday Forecast
: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°    SE MO 75° to  78°    South IL  75° to 78°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 78°    West KY 75° to 78°    NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 6:30 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54°     MO  48° to 52°     South IL  48° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°    West KY 50° to 54°     NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:21 PM
Moonset:  11:13 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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October 7, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast
: Mostly sunny. A bit warmer.  Nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84°    SE MO 78° to  82°    South IL  78° to 82°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82°    West KY 78° to 82°    NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: West at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:29 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°     MO  48° to 52°     South IL  48° to 52°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°    West KY 48° to 52°     NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:02 PM
Moonset:  12:12 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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October 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast
: Mostly sunny.   Not quite as warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°    SE MO 72° to  74°    South IL  72° to 74°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74°    West KY 72° to 74°    NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:57 AM
Sunset: 6:28 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50°     MO  44° to 48°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°    West KY 46° to 50°     NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:49 PM
Moonset:  1:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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October 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°    SE MO 75° to  80°    South IL  75° to 80°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80°    West KY 75° to 80°    NW TN 78° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 6:26 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56°     MO  52° to 55°     South IL  52° to 55°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°    West KY 52° to 55°     NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Light southeast wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:43 PM
Moonset:  2:03 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Saturday and Sunday

** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary.  Just keep that in mind.

At this time, Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be mostly sunny and dry.  Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the middle to  upper 50s.  Sunday night may end up a bit milder.

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  Frost possible Monday morning.
  2.  Dry weather.
  3.  Field fires.

 

Click to enlarge the graphics.

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Remember, this is an average across our local area.  The county by county will vary.  See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.

From the UK Agriculture Weather Center.

 

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Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through October 12th: ** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary.  Just keep that in mind.

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated October 5th

** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary.  Just keep that in mind.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store.  Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.   Back from vacation.
    2.   Cool week ahead.
    3.   Dry weather is a concern for fire season.
    4.   Watching the tropics for any forecast adjustments.

 

** NOTE ** There is the potential of a tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend.  If that happens then forecast adjustments would be necessary.  Just keep that in mind.

I continue to watch the tropics.  Delta could become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  This could bring rain to our region IF it tracks far enough west.  For now, I am monitoring it and have not included it in our forecast.  That could change.

National Hurricane Center forecast track.

 

There is not a lot to talk about when it comes to weather over the coming week.  This has been quite the amazing stretch of nice weather.  For the most part, at least.

There were some showers yesterday across parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  A few in Kentucky, as well.  Light showers.  Nothing significant.

Dry weather is forecast Monday through Saturday.

I am watching a system around October 12th through the 14th.

The GFS model is showing a cold front with thunderstorms.  Don’t forget October and November can produce severe weather.

The EC model shows this, as well.

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We could use rain.  Fire season is upon us.  Typically, October and November bring strong wind gusts.  That mixed with dry air can fuel field and forest fires.

Let’s use care over the coming weeks.

Let me show you some of the precipitation anomaly maps.

Here is the national map showing you the precipitation anomaly for the past sixty days.

Much of that green and blue is where tropical systems influenced the rain totals.  Thus, they were above average.

Check out all the brown.  That is where below to much below rain has occurred.

This shows you the anomaly in inches.

Here is the sixty day precipitation percent of normal.  Again, much below average over a large chunk of real estate.

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Zooming in on our region.

The past sixty days precipitation anomaly in inches.

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The past sixty days precipitation anomaly percent of normal.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Currently, no rain is forecast.

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Currently, no rain is forecast.

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Currently, no rain is forecast.

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Currently, no rain is forecast.

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

Currently, no rain is forecast.

 


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  October 5th through October 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers  October 12th through October 19th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″

This outlook covers October 16th through October 29th

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Click to enlarge all of the images below

These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

Click the image below to enlarge it.

 

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Fall Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

September Temperature Outlook (prelim)

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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)

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The October Outlook has been posted.

Temperatures

AN means above average temperatures.

 

Precipitation

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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)

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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)

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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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