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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
Tuesday night – A few clouds and cool. Small chance for a shower or sprinkle over our far northern counties.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 44 to 48 degrees.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 0-5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated over northern counties after midnight.
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Nice for October. Small chance for an early morning sprinkle or shower over our far northern counties (closer to Mt Vernon).
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% (northern counties before 5 am)
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Wednesday night – A few clouds possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 52 to 56 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 0-5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Nice for October.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. Nice for October.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. Can’t rule out showers late in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (but monitoring for changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Maybe scattered in the afternoon
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers as the night wears on.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 55 to 62 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Maybe some wet roadways as showers approach from the west.
Saturday – Cloudy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe scattered lightning.
Saturday night – Cloudy with a chance for showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Sunday – Cloudy. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Sunday night – Cloudy. If the front stalls out then I may need to add showers into the forecast.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 48-54 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (monitor updates)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered possible, but low confidence
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Monday – Cloudy. A few showers possible. Low confidence on Monday’s forecast. Not sure if the front stalls out. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm days
2. Rain chances on the increase by Friday night
3. Rain likely on Saturday/Saturday night
4. Some questions on precipitation chances for Sunday/Monday. Monitoring trends.
5. Models are hinting at a cold blast between October 28th and November 3rd.
Are you seeing any changes in the leaves? Don’t forget to Tweet me a few. I will try and post them on the blog. https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Beautiful October weather continues. Of course beautiful is defined differently by everyone. Dry weather continues. The drought continues. Temperatures are warmer than normal. Some counties could even hit 80 degrees on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Some question on Friday’s high temperatures because of cloud cover.
I do have some good news. Rain is on the way. Crossing fingers that this event pans out. The last two months have not been known for over-achieving when it comes to cold fronts and rainfall. At least for most of us. I have recorded almost no rain at my place in Massac County, Illinois. Very small numbers. Dry is the word.
First…
Nice weather will continue into Friday mid-afternoon. Today’s data is bringing precipitation into our region a bit faster. The new data is leaning towards Friday afternoon and evening for some showers approaching from the west/southwest. I checked the ensembles and about half of them support this idea. I introduced some shower chances for Friday afternoon and evening. Especially western counties. Let’s continue to monitor the trends with new data on Wednesday. One thing is for sure, chances increase considerably as we move through Friday night and into Saturday.
Widespread rain is likely on Saturday into Saturday night. I increased chances to the 60%-80% category. We could even have some thunder on Saturday and Saturday night. Severe weather is not anticipated. We have done well in avoiding severe weather over the last few months. We will have to see if that continues into November. Typically we start to see stronger wind fields and stronger cold fronts during the fall months. Of course, that has yet to be the case this year.
Rainfall totals should range from 0.25″-0.75″. With pockets of greater than 1″ possible. I am a little hesitant to say that (this far out). But, if the data is correct then we should have a decent rain event. Widespread in nature, as well. We need a lot more rain that that. But, we will take what we can get.
There will be a Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico connection with this system. That should mean a lot of moisture to work with.
I know some of you have plans on Saturday. I would advise you to have a back up plan. If the forecast comes together as planned then rain will be a good bet at least part of Saturday. At this point the entire area has a decent shot at rainfall on Saturday into Saturday night. Some of the data yesterday leaned more towards southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. But, the latest guidance shows the whole area with rainfall chances.
The next question will be whether or not the cold front stalls out on Sunday and Monday. It is possible that the front becomes stationary somewhere near the Kentucky and Tennessee border on Sunday and Monday. If that were to occur then additional ripples of energy might snake along the front. This could increase rain chances on both days (Sunday and Monday). Low confidence on that happening. I want to view more data before banking on the stalled front idea. Something to keep in mind, however, if you have plans on Sunday and Monday.
Also, it is possible that there will be a break in the rain on Sunday or Monday before another wave of low pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday night. Lot of questions remain on the extended forecast.
I hit the probabilities the best I could for both of those days (Sunday and Monday) and tagged it as low confidence on the eventual outcome.
Here is the GFS model for Friday into Sunday. Again, the GFS stalls this front and continues rain into early next week.
Images are from weatherbell.com
Green represents rain. Lighter green is lighter rain. Darker green is heavier rain.
This first image is for early Friday afternoon. You can see the area of low pressure along the North and South Dakota border. A cold front trails back into Texas. Rain ahead and along the front.
This next image is for Friday evening. Hmmm some showers approaching from the west if the GFS is correct. Still some debate on this.
This next image is for Saturday morning around 7 am. The GFS does show some breaks in the rain. Scattered showers on Saturday morning.
Then rain increases from the south and southwest as the day wears on. This next image is for early Saturday afternoon
This next image is for Saturday evening. Rain continues over our region.
This next image is for Sunday morning. The GFS continues rain into Sunday. Still some debate on that topic.
Bottom line…
Monitoring to see what time the rain arrives. New data is pushing up the arrival time a bit. I will be monitoring trends over the next 24-48 hours. Rain could continue into Sunday and Monday. This will depend on the front stalling out.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday then have a back up plan ready to roll.
One last note. Some of the data I have been monitoring is showing a strong blast of cold air around October 28th through November 3rd. I will be monitoring.
COMING SOON! Beau Dodson WeatherTalk 2.0 A texting service. Watch for announcements over the coming week.
Main changes were adjusting temperatures a couple of degrees. I did introduce at least a chance for showers on Friday afternoon/evening. Some debate on this. All of today’s data sped showers up a bit.
Low confidence on Friday evening’s forecast and then again on Sunday and Monday.
Drought will continue to spread. Dry brush and grasslands have an increased risk for fire. Use care if you must conduct outdoor burning of fields or grass.
No
The wild card in the forecast will be the possibility of the cold front becoming stationary over parts of our region on Sunday. If this occurs then rain chances will linger longer. Right now rain is likely on Saturday and Saturday night. But, questions remain on Sunday/Monday.
No additional frost in the short range forecast. I am watching October 28th through November 3rd for another cold blast. Long way off, so confidence will be low until we are closer to the time frame.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain chances increase by late Friday night. Rain likely on Saturday and Saturday night. Some question as to how long the rain will linger on Sunday. The front may stall over our region. If that occurs then we may have a few rounds of precipitation on Sunday and even Monday. I will be monitoring trends on the placement of the frontal boundary.
Here is the current thinking on rainfall totals through Sunday morning. Low confidence on details. There could be some pockets of heavier rain. For now, this is the broad brushed outlook for rainfall. This map will be updated each day.
And, this is through the rest of the possible rain event. Depending on whether the front stalls or not.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO on Wednesday through Friday. Thunder possible by Saturday (but not expecting severe weather).
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder possible.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
UPDATE: October 20, 2015: Starting to see a more active pattern the last part of October into the first part of November. A couple of storm systems to monitor. I am noting the southern systems coming through the southwest United States. The thinking is that this winter might end up a southern winter. Meaning, a lot of storm systems will track through the gulf states and then off the southeast coast. If there is blocking then the systems would push up the East Coast. Typically this would be a great track for our region when it comes to winter storms.
The question will be how far south do these systems track. Normally for heavy snow in our region we would look for a system pulling out of Texas and Oklahoma and then tracking into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama. That would place our region on the cold side of the area of low pressure.
I do believe this is shaping up to be a fairly unique winter. The warm waters off both coasts are not typical for an El Nino event. Widespread above normal water temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic. I will be monitoring Gulf of Mexico water temperatures. Above normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico typically means increased severe thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast. It could also mean more moisture for our winter storms to work with.
Drought continues to be the lead story. Our dry pattern has been underway since September and October (for much of the region). The long range cycle typically sets up during October and early November. The longer our calm and dry weather persists the more I am concerned about drought during the winter months.
Precious discussions below.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST
NOAA has released their winter forecast. I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region. But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet. The long range cycle is still in the developing stages. The long range cycle typically develops during October and November. It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter. Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.
I am concerned about our dry weather. October has been dry, thus far. Not the best way to start out the next cycle. However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go. Will the weather become more active during that time period? Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.
Here is what NOAA said today.
This first map is their temperature outlook. They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States. In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures. The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.
I would have brought the blue further north into our region. It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter. That is when December into early March is averaged out. That does not mean every month will be colder than normal. It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal. We will see how it goes.
I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States. The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air. If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA saying about our region? They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.
Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast. They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter. Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes. As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA forecasting for our region? They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.
Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt. Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance. Key word being specific.
We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.
For the most part, our region experiences a couple of winter storms each year. Last year the winter was boring, until it wasn’t. The two big winter storms occurred on February 16th and March 5th. And, many will never forget those two events. November into January was fairly calm.
No matter what winter forecast you read, there isn’t a method of forecasting the big events. The events that matter. Not months in advance, at least. We do well to forecast them a few days in advance, let alone months in advance.
Forecasters do fairly well with general over/under forecasts. Warmer than normal/colder than normal. Wetter than normal/drier than normal. But, that really does not tell the story of winter. That does not tell you what you really are wondering. Thus, is the nature of long range forecasting. Maybe one day it will improve.
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
