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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
Monday night – Mostly clear. Pleasant for October. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 40 to 46 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy and nice.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Some gusts up to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Tuesday night – A few clouds and cool. Small chance for a shower or sprinkle over our far northern counties.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 44 to 48 degrees.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated over northern counties after midnight.
What impact is expected? No impacts for most areas. Maybe some wet roadways far northern counties after midnight.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Nice for October. Small chance for an early morning sprinkle or shower over our far northern counties (closer to Mt Vernon).
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% (northern counties before 5 am)
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Some patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 52 to 54 degrees.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Nice for October.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 12-15 mph during the afternoon.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Thursday night – A period of clouds. Some patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday – A mix of sun and clouds. Increasing clouds possible in the afternoon. Nice for October.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
What impact is expected? No impacts.
Friday night – Increasing clouds through the night. Western counties may experience a shower late at night.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 55 to 62 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% western counties
Coverage of precipitation? None for most. A few widely scattered showers possible over our western counties after midnight.
What impact is expected? No impacts for most of the area. Maybe some wet roadways western counties after midnight.
Saturday – Increasing clouds. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the latest forecast. Rain is possible on Saturday.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Maybe scattered lightning.
Saturday night – Cloudy with a chance for some showers.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 58 degrees.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Maybe. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Sunday – Cloudy. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60’s
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% (but subject to changes)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Nice work week on tap for the region.
2. Small chance for sprinkles Tuesday night late and early Wednesday morning (northern counties)
3. Increasing rain chances by Friday night into Saturday night/Sunday
4. Will rain linger on Sunday into Monday?
5. Continue to watch a disturbance in the tropics
Nice weather on tap for the region through Friday afternoon. We will have a weak system that will nip our northern counties on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Models spit out a little bit of rain, but not much more than a trace to 0.05″. I mentioned sprinkles or a light shower for areas around Mt Vernon on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Some increase in clouds, as well.
Temperatures will remain in the pleasant category through Friday. Highs mostly in the 70’s with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Not too bad for the middle of October. We are nearing the end of October. So, even better.
Here is that disturbance on the NAM model guidance. You can see the shaded area representing increased moisture. Some clouds and maybe a sprinkle or shower on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for our far northern counties. This map is from wright-weather.com
Wednesday morning will deliver some clouds, especially over our northern counties.
Thursday and Friday are shaping up rather nicely. Nice temperatures and quite a bit of sunshine. High clouds may be on the increase by Friday afternoon as a system approaches from the southwest and south.
A stronger weather system will push into our region, from the southwest United States, on Friday night – Sunday. This system will combine with some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The end result should be widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by late Friday night into the weekend. The precipitation will arrive first over our western counties (near Poplar Bluff). This would occur on Friday night. On Saturday the precipitation will spread east/northeast.
Now, some of the data keeps the bulk of the rain over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Saturday. Pushing it slowly eastward during the afternoon and evening. Some of the guidance has the heaviest rain totals over the western half of the region vs eastern half. It is possible that the best rain chances will end up over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky and Tennessee through early Saturday afternoon. Long way to go before the details are ironed out. But, it is something to consider.
At this time, subject to some adjustments as we draw closer to the event, it appears some counties could pick up 0.10″-0.50″ of rain. Some models show more and some models show less.
I should also mention that some of the guidance stalls the front over our region. IF that happens then rain will linger and totals would increase. For now, let’s keep an eye on trends. I have been watching this system since the middle of last week. At that point it was a long shot. Now, we are drawing closer and closer. We need this rain event.
Here is the 500 mb charts (18,000′ aloft) from wright-weather.com
The bright colors represent vort’s. Energy (some call them). The bright colors represent where some lift is occurring in the atmosphere. These impulses are responsible for clouds and precipitation. You can see one strong vort north of Minnesota. Another one in the southwest United States.
This map is for Wednesday. See the circle over the southwest United States. That is a closed upper level low. It will spin there most of this week. However, look at the second image. It has shifted east/northeast. It will be kicked out of the southwest United States into the central United States. Thus, our chances for clouds and rain will increase as it approaches.
This image is for Friday night. The system is moving into our region from the southwest.
Let me show you some surface charts. These charts will show you where precipitation is forecast to occur. The green colors represent rainfall.
A couple of items to watch. Watch the area of low pressure near the Texas coast. That is a tropical type system. Will it fully develop or not? Good question. There is a 20% chance that it will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. It will send moisture northward. The GFS actually takes the low into the Gulf of Mexico and meanders it around. Other models bring it inland.
The GFS lingers rain in our region through Monday. Other models do not linger precipitation that long. Models do agree that it will rain in our region late Friday night into Saturday night and perhaps Sunday. Hopefully, as the week unfolds, the data will start to merge on a solution. I will fine tune the Sunday-Monday forecast with each passing day. I would like to see the ensembles agree on the front stalling out before jumping on-board with that idea.
This first map is for Thursday night. You can see showers and thunderstorms from North Dakota into Texas. Map is from Tropicaltidbits.com
This next map is for Friday evening. Note the precipitation has shifted eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas. On Friday night the rain will move into our western counties.
This next map (below) is for Saturday afternoon. You can see plenty of green in our local region. Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. One question that also remains will be coverage. An all day rain vs scattered showers. Still need to iron out those details.
You can see the red L (low pressure) well south of southern Texas. Along the Mexican coastline. It is moving northward. This is helping to feed some moisture into our region. Attaching itself to the trough of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes. Funneling it northward.
This next map is for Sunday morning. Models take the bulk of the rain off to our east. But, a new surge of moisture appears in Arkansas. This is moving northeast, as well. Now, with that said, this is only one model solution of many. There remains some question on the Sunday and Monday forecast. Some of the guidance pushes the rain out of our region by Saturday night. Other models, such as the GFS package, keeps rain in our local area longer. Thus, it would also be heavier.
This next slide is for Monday morning. You can see some rain in our region. This, according to the GFS guidance. Note, the GFS keeps that red L down in the Gulf of Mexico. Meandering around. Some question as to how or when the tropical low develops. How much it develops (how strong it becomes). If it develops at all. Lot of questions remain on that system. Grab the popcorn.
Finally, this is the Monday evening map (next Monday). You can see the GFS continues to show rain in our local area.
You can see the red L in the Gulf of Mexico. Again, the GFS keeps that system in the Gulf. Other models move it ashore.
Let me zoom in a bit on the graphics for Friday night. This is the GFS model guidance.
This first image is for Friday evening around 7 pm. You can see most of the rain is still west of our local counties.
But, by 2-4 am (Saturday morning) you can see precipitation nudging into our area. Rain should then increase on Saturday.
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I did add a very small chance for a sprinkle over northern counties for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, I continue to monitor the weekend forecast. Rain chances are definitely increasing. Feel pretty good right now that some rain will fall in the region this weekend. Fingers crossed for those who need rain. I know some of you have outdoor plans, as well. Give and take on this one.
Increased temperatures a bit. We might even hit 80 degrees in a few spots later this week. Crazy weather.
Drought will continue to spread. Dry brush and grasslands have an increased risk for fire. Use care if you must conduct outdoor burning of fields or grass.
No
The wild card in the forecast will center around rain. When will it rain again? Drought continues to spread across our region. Not good news. We could be in for a winter drought if this current pattern recycles. Still early to make a call on that subject.
I am watching for some type of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. That combined with a system moving out of the southwest United States could spell some showers for our region by late Friday night (western counties) into Saturday/Saturday night and perhaps even Sunday. Rain chances are looking better and better. Crossing fingers for this one. We need the rain.
No additional frost in the short range forecast. I am watching October 31st through November 5th for another cold blast. Long way off, so confidence will be low until we are closer to the time frame.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Small chance for a sprinkle Tuesday night and Wednesday morning over our far northern counties.
No significant rain through Friday.
Rain chances increase Friday night into Sunday. Some spots could pick up more than 0.25″. I will fine tune the forecast numbers as we draw closer.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO on Monday through Friday
.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST
NOAA has released their winter forecast. I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region. But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet. The long range cycle is still in the developing stages. The long range cycle typically develops during October and November. It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter. Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.
I am concerned about our dry weather. October has been dry, thus far. Not the best way to start out the next cycle. However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go. Will the weather become more active during that time period? Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.
Here is what NOAA said today.
This first map is their temperature outlook. They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States. In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures. The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.
I would have brought the blue further north into our region. It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter. That is when December into early March is averaged out. That does not mean every month will be colder than normal. It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal. We will see how it goes.
I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States. The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air. If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA saying about our region? They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.
Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast. They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter. Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes. As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA forecasting for our region? They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.
Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt. Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance. Key word being specific.
We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.
For the most part, our region experiences a couple of winter storms each year. Last year the winter was boring, until it wasn’t. The two big winter storms occurred on February 16th and March 5th. And, many will never forget those two events. November into January was fairly calm.
No matter what winter forecast you read, there isn’t a method of forecasting the big events. The events that matter. Not months in advance, at least. We do well to forecast them a few days in advance, let alone months in advance.
Forecasters do fairly well with general over/under forecasts. Warmer than normal/colder than normal. Wetter than normal/drier than normal. But, that really does not tell the story of winter. That does not tell you what you really are wondering. Thus, is the nature of long range forecasting. Maybe one day it will improve.
For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings. If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule. Click image for a larger view.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
