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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching a front Sunday evening into Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Yes. I am monitoring Thursday and Friday night
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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October 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 75° to 78° NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:21 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:01 AM
Moonset: 4:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 79° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Low-end rain chances.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:13 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers along a fast moving cold front. Light rain totals (if rain develops).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 65° to 68° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming west northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. If the wind does die down then frost will develop.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 35° to 38° South IL 35° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 36° to 38° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring the chance of frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 6:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Frost will be possible. There remain questions about wind speed Friday night. If the south wind increases just a tad then that would prevent frost. Plan on frost and monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° MO 36° to 38° South IL 36° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 36° to 38° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Light south southwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:41 AM
Moonset: 6:36 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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October 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 65° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:15 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 48° MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:55 AM
Moonset: 7:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
** Some models bring a cold front into the region Sunday evening into Monday. I will need to monitor when rain chances increase **
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South becoming southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. I am watching Sunday night and Monday for rain chances.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:11 AM
Moonset: 7:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Decent weather ahead.
- Small rain chances Thursday along a fast moving front.
- Frost likely Friday night.
- Monitoring next Monday for rain chances.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through October 20th: Severe weather is not a concern.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 12th
No major concerns.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Mostly dry conditions into the weekend.
- A weak front Wednesday night/Thursday. Isolated shower.
- Watching frost chances Thursday and Friday night.
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Well, I have to say that October has been a bit of a snooze for the weatherman. The weather has been quiet for the most part.
I am monitoring a few weather items over the coming seven days.
It will be nice today. Cooler. No rain.
A fast moving front arrives late Wednesday night and Thursday. A couple of showers may form along the front.
The EC model shows that rain. Not much.
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The front will bring colder air into the region.
I doubt frost forms Thursday night because of the wind staying about 5 to 10 mph.
Frost is more likely Friday night. Widespread 30s with winds below 5 mph. Plan on frost Friday night over much of the area. I will have to see if it is cold enough for frost in the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.
Our next weather maker arrives Monday. A cold front will push into the region from the west. This front may have more moisture to work with vs recent cold fronts.
A band of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated. A bit early to say amounts. Systems have underperformed over the past month or two.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 71 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 13th through October 19th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers October 20th through October 26th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers October 27th through November 9th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
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Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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