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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching a front Sunday night into Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? Yes. I am monitoring Thursday and Friday night. The wind will need to die down in order for frost to form.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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October 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 79° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:13 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: There are some questions about high temperatures Thursday ahead of a cold front. Some guidance is warmer and some cooler. I split the difference. Keep that in mind. Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers along a fast moving cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 70° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° West KY 70° to 75° NW TN 70° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming west northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Any evening showers will move off to the east. If the wind does die down then frost will develop.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 20% early TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 38° West KY 35° to 38° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring the chance of frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 6:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Frost will be possible. There remain questions about wind speed Friday night. If the south wind increases just a tad then that would prevent frost. Plan on frost and monitor updates.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 36° to 38° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Light south southwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:41 AM
Moonset: 6:36 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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October 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 65° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:15 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 48° MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 45° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:55 AM
Moonset: 7:11 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
** Some models bring a cold front into the region Sunday evening into Monday. I will need to monitor when rain chances increase **
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° MO 43° to 46° South IL 43° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:11 AM
Moonset: 7:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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October 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 6:12 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° West KY 43° to 46° NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: North wind 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 10:27 AM
Moonset: 8:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Quiet weather. Gusty wind today. Enhanced fire risk.
- Spotty showers Thursday.
- Frost chances Thursday and Friday night.
- Rain chances Monday/Tuesday.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
This will be the last AM AG weather report until late winter/early spring (growing season returns). Please refer to the long range video until that time.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through October 20th: Severe weather is not a concern.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 14th
No major concerns.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Two fronts to watch.
- Watching frost chances Thursday and Friday night.
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The main weather story today will be gusty wind and warm temperatures. Winds may gust above 30 mph. Use care if you must burn brush. Low humidity combined with gusty wind will make for enhanced fire conditions.
Quiet weather today and tonight.
A cold front will sweep through the region Thursday and Thursday evening. A band of showers may form ahead of the front. Light rain totals.
Colder air surges into the area Thursday night. If the wind dies down then frost will be possible Thursday night/Friday morning. The chance of frost will be higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lows in the middle to upper 30s.
Dry Friday and Saturday. Another chance of frost Friday night (if the wind does not pick back up).
Another frontal boundary will push towards the region Sunday night, Monday, and Tuesday. Models diverge on their solutions for this front. Some of the models are dry. Some are wet.
For now, I have rain chances late Sunday night into at least Monday night. Confidence is low in the final details. I will need to update this portion of the forecast.
No severe weather anticipated.
All is all, our quiet weather pattern conditions. Rather slow for the Month of October.
Typically, from now into winter, the weather pattern begins to shift towards a more active one.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 71 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 14th through October 20th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers October 21st through October 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers October 27th through November 9th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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