Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 12, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

    1. Your detailed day to day forecast
    2. City-view graphic-casts
    3. Severe weather outlook
    4. Forecast discussion
    5. Future-cast radars
    6. Long-range temp & precip graphics

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

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Monday to Monday

1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Unlikely.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

3.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4.  Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze?  Yes. I am monitoring Thursday and Friday night

5.  Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees?  No.

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October 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast:  A few passing clouds.  Becoming breezy.  Some AM fog possible.  Light showers possible along the cold front. Temperatures will fall behind the cold front later today.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80°    SE MO 73° to  76°    South IL  74° to 78°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°    West KY 74° to 78°    NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South wind becoming southwest and then becoming west/northwest. Wind speed increasing to 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: A brief shower
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:22 PM
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Monday night Forecast:   Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~  10%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48°     MO  42° to 45°     South IL  42° to 45°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°     NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph early becoming variable in direction at 0 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:51 AM
Moonset:  4:20 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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October 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  10%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78°    SE MO 74° to  76°    South IL  74° to 76°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76°    West KY 75° to 78°    NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:21 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  10%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50°     MO  48° to 50°     South IL  46° to 50°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50°    West KY 48° to 50°     NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:01 AM
Moonset:  4:56 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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October 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  10%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82°    SE MO 78° to  82°    South IL  78° to 82°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82°    West KY 78° to 82°    NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 79° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56°     MO  52° to 55°     South IL  52° to 55°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55°    West KY 54° to 56°     NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Low-end rain chances.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:13 AM
Moonset:  5:30 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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October 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast
:  Intervals of clouds.  A chance of showers along a fast moving cold front.  Light rain totals (if rain develops).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~  30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66°    SE MO 62° to  65°    South IL  62° to 65°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65°    West KY 62° to 65°    NW TN 65° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming west northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds.  Wind may prevent frost.  If the wind does die down then frost will develop.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42°     MO  35° to 38°     South IL  35° to 38°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38°    West KY 36° to 38°     NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring the chance of frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset:  6:03 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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October 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~  20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60°    SE MO 56° to  58°    South IL  56° to 58°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58°    West KY 56° to 58°    NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5.  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Frost will likely develop.  Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40°     MO  34° to 38°     South IL  34° to 38°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 38°    West KY 35° to 38°     NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Light west southwest wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:41 AM
Moonset:  6:36 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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October 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast
: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65°    SE MO 62° to  65°    South IL  62° to 65°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65°    West KY 62° to 65°    NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5.  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:15 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 48°     MO  43° to 46°     South IL  43° to 46°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46°    West KY 44° to 48°     NW TN 45° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 43° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:55 AM
Moonset:  7:11 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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October 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70°    SE MO 64° to  68°    South IL  64° to 68°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68°    West KY 64° to 68°    NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South becoming southwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5.  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 6:14 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~  0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50°     MO  44° to 48°     South IL  44° to 48°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°    West KY 44° to 48°     NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:11 AM
Moonset:  7:50 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

 

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What is the UV index?

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  1.  A few light showers today.
  2.  Mild temperatures.  Breezy.

 

Click graphics to enlarge them.

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Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through October 20th:  Severe weather is not a concern.

 

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

Updated October 11th

No major concerns.

Weather Talk by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

 

    1.   Dry conditions for many.
    2.   Two systems to watch over the next eight days.
    3.   Low-end rain chances.

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Well, Delta was a bust for most of the area.  A few spots received a decent rain.  Most of the area received less rain than anticipated.  Not good for our field fire situation but good for farmers who are bringing in the crops.

A mostly calm week is anticipated ahead.

A weak cold front will move through the region today.  A line of light showers will be possible along the front.  Gusty wind behind it with falling temperatures.

Another weak cold front arrives Wednesday/Thursday.  For now, it appears there won’t be much moisture for it to work with, either.  Thus, rain chances will be on the low-end.

Colder air behind the front with brisk winds will make it feel like autumn.

I am monitoring the chance of frost Thursday and Friday night.  We will have to see if winds can die down enough for frost to form in some areas.

Looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday, it appears it will be mostly dry.  Another weak front moves through the region Sunday.  I will keep an eye on guidance trends in case there is a bit more moisture with it.

 

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at? 
You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

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This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This animation is the SPC WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

 

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This animation is the 3K American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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This next animation is the EC model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

 


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers  October 12th through October 19th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 71 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers  October 19th through October 25th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″

This outlook covers October 20th through November 2nd 

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Precipitation outlook

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING.  DURING THE GROWING SEASON.

 

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Fall Outlook

Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.

September Temperature Outlook (prelim)

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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)

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The October Outlook has been posted.

Temperatures

AN means above average temperatures.

 

Precipitation

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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)

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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)

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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC  equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)

February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)

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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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