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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday into Sunday. A weak cold front will bring widely scattered showers Monday afternoon. Lightning can’t be ruled out.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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October 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A widely scattered shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% north and 20% Bootheel IL ~ 0% north and 20% far south KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming southeast and south at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Small chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:58 AM
Sunset: 6:26 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Chances are highest across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% north and 50% Bootheel IL ~ 20% north and 30% far south KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:43 PM
Moonset: 2:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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October 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be higher across our southern counties vs our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% far north. 70% Bootheel IL ~ 30% far north and 60% far south KY ~ 70% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° SE MO 75° to 80° South IL 75° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 72° to 75° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast and east at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps none far north and numerous far south
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:59 AM
Sunset: 6:25 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% Bootheel tapering to 30% far north IL ~ 50% far south 30% north KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 64° MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 63° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 15 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps none far north and numerous as you travel towards Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
Moonrise: 6:00 PM
Moonset: 2:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be higher across our southern counties vs northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% north and 40% far south IL ~ 10% north and 50% far south KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° SE MO 76° to 78° South IL 76° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast wind at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Becoming scattered as the day wears on. Ending west to east PM hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in areas with higher rain chances.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:00AM
Sunset: 6:23 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° MO 60° to 62° South IL 60° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast wind 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:45 AM
Moonset: 3:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: A few passing clouds. Becoming breezy. Some AM fog possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 80° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 74° to 78° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South wind becoming southwest and then becoming west/northwest. Wind speed increasing to 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 6:22 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph early becoming variable in direction at 0 to 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:51 AM
Moonset: 4:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 75° to 78° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 6:21 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° MO 48° to 50° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° West KY 48° to 50° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest wind 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:01 AM
Moonset: 4:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 79° to 84°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 6:19 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: A few clouds late at night. Breezy. A slight chance of a late night shower along a weak cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° MO 54° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 8 to 16 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Low-end rain chances.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:13 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Some AM clouds. Breezy. A slight chance of showers along a cold front.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 65° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 8 to 16 mph becoming northwest.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 6:18 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. Clearing and turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° West KY 40° to 42° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring the chance of frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:26 AM
Moonset: 6:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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October 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 56° to 58° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest wind 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 6:16 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A chance of fog. A chance of frost in areas that dip into the 30s.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Light west wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitoring the chance of frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:41 AM
Moonset: 6:36 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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What is the UV index?
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- Monitoring Hurricane Delta
- Rain is the concern and gusty wind.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through October 17th: Severe weather is not a concern.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated October 9th
Rain will push in from the south Friday into the weekend. This will be the remnants of major Hurricane Delta.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Mild days. Cool nights.
- Rain chances increasing.
- Hurricane Delta
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The main weather topic is powerful Hurricane Delta.
You can see Delta on this morning’s satellite imagery.
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Delta is churning through the Gulf of Mexico. It is moving northward and will slam into NE TX, LA, MS, and AL, over the coming hours.
The system will then track northeast into the Tennessee Valley.
You can see how the EC model handles the hurricane and its eventual movement.
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We will be on the northern side of this system.
The heaviest rain should remain to our south.
There will be a SHARP cut-off in rain totals from north to south.
The Mt Vernon, Illinois, area may receive very little in the rain of rain. Perhaps none at all.
The heaviest rain will fall from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Some areas will receive more than an inch of rain.
Here is the latest WPC rainfall map. This is what NOAA is thinking. Notice the SHARP cut-off in rain totals.
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The rain will push out of the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front will move across the region Monday.
This front will produce a couple of showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm. Severe weather is not a concern.
Dry weather returns Monday night through Friday. Many areas could use some rain.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers October 8th through October 14th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers October 15th through October 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.65″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers October 20th through November 2nd
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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