Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

Wednesday night –  Clearing and cooler.  Pleasant night for the windows to be open.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. 
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph. 
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Thursday – Mostly sunny and cool.  Some increase in clouds over western Kentucky and parts of southern Illinois as the day wears on.  A couple of showers over our far far eastern counties.  Fall like.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 10-15 mph.  Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% eastern counties/southeast counties towards Hopkinsville
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Thursday night –  Mostly clear.  Some clouds possible over eastern counties.  Autumn weather.  Cool.  Small shower chances eastern counties.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 40’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Friday – Partly sunny.  Perhaps cloudy over our eastern counties.  A few showers possible over western Kentucky.  Pleasant.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 5-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Friday night –  Some clouds.  Cool.  Some showers possible over western Kentucky.  Small chance over southeast Illinois.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   20%-30%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Saturday – Partly sunny.  Cool.   A few showers possible over western Kentucky. 
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 60’s
Winds:  North winds at 5-15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Saturday night –  Some clouds possible.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 40’s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Sunday – Some clouds.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Sunday night –  Some clouds possible.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to upper 40’s
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Monday – Partly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. 
Winds:  North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Cooler air for the region.
2.  Some gusty winds from time to time
3.  Clouds could be an issue over our eastern counties from time to time
4.  Tracking an East Coast hurricane.

A calm weather pattern for our local region.  A lot to watch on the national map.

We will have periods of clouds over the coming days for our eastern counties.  Also a few showers possible Thursday night into Saturday across our far eastern counties.  That would include parts of the Pennyrile of western Kentucky.  But, most areas will remain dry.

The only concern I have is if the East Coast hurricane ends up further west than anticipated.  If that were to happen then more clouds would cover our region and possibly more showers.  For now, let’s go with the above thoughts.

Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend and into early next week.  Expect numerous days with highs in the 60’s and lows in the 40’s.  Fall air.  It will feel pleasant outside (perhaps even a little cool).  Jacket weather.

We will have some gusty winds at times.  A tight pressure gradient may develop between low pressure to our east/southeast and higher pressure over our region.

I forecasted more above normal temperature days for September than below normal temperature days.  And, I forecasted drier than normal weather conditions.

Here are the official temperature numbers for the Paducah, Kentucky NWS location.  The red represents days that delivered above normal temperatures.  Obviously, much of September was warmer than normal.

The MAX represents that days high temperature
The MIN represents the low temperature for that particular day (DY would be the date)
AVG is the average of the two numbers
DEP is the departure from normal.

High temperature forecast for Thursday

High temperature forecast for Friday

High temperatures for Saturday

High temperatures for Sunday

This chart shows you wind speed for Thursday.  Some gusty winds.  I am seeing 10-20 mph winds on the chart.

I am tracking Hurricane Joaquin.  The graphic below is what meteorologist call a spaghetti plot.  What in the world is a spaghetti plot?  It is all of the model outcomes shown on one map.  As you know from my previous posts, meteorologists use models as guidance when issuing a forecast.  Models are not gospel.  And, models don’t always agree.   For hurricane forecasting, meteorologist have to pull from model guidance, analogs from history, current conditions, and past experience.  Forecasting the track of a hurricane is complicated, at best.   Models also don’t handle intensity very well.  Many times a hurricane can rapidly strengthen and the models don’t pick up on that ahead of time.

I am forecasting this storm to rapidly intensify tonight.  By morning it may be a category 3.  By tomorrow it could reach category 4.

There are literally dozens of computer models that meteorologists can view.  The map below shows you all of the possible outcomes from the last set of model guidance.

The tighter the lines are packed together then the greater the confidence in the eventual outcome of the hurricanes track path.  As you can see, there is a general agreement that this system will actually move inland somewhere in the Middle Atlantic or possibly further north.  It is still early to know for sure.  And, one model shows this system going out to sea.  The EC model is out to sea.  And, the EC typically does a great job at forecasting these types of event.

We use the spaghetti plots as guidance.

This is what the spaghetti plot is showing.  Those with interests along the East Coast of the United States should monitor this hurricane.

You can make your own maps by going here – click here

We need more at home storm spotters.  If you would be interested in becoming a storm spotter (and you can spot from home, we don’t need people out and about to spot) then check out this Storm Spotter Training Webinar on Thursday, October 1st.  6:30 PM to 9:30 PM.  The National Weather Service Office out of Paducah, Kentucky will be conducting the training.

And, for the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

Radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No rain in the short term forecast.

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Thursday through Sunday.

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Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday:   Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

No major concerns.  Gusty winds at times.

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

Regional Radar

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.