We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
.
Duck/goose decoys? Game calls? Optics? We have you covered! Final flight outfitters Inc., located in Union City, TN offers the area’s largest selection of top-quality, name-brand hunting gear. Owned by brothers, Jon Ed, Tripp & Kelley Powers, Final Flight Outfitters is continually expanding and growing rapidly to serve hunters throughout the country. Just recently they’ve expanded their retail store with an additional 8.700 square feet creating a showroom of over 25,000 square feet. Click the logo above or visit Final Flight on Facebook, as well.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday night – Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 30s
Winds: Light winds from the south/southwest
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Some clouds possible. A little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Light winds
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mix of sun and clouds
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Increasingly cloudy sky conditions.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thanksgiving – Cloudy. A small chance for showers, especially late in the day. Better chances over our far western counties of southeast Missouri
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% (subject to adjustments as we draw nearer)
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered. Mostly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but let’s monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways
Thursday night – Cloudy with showers becoming likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50s
Winds: South winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early and then becoming 80% late
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread as we move through the overnight hours into Friday morning
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Rain appears likely as we move later into the night.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Friday – Cloudy. Rain.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain appears likely.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Friday night – Cloudy with rain likely. Rain ending late.
Temperatures: Lows in 40s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread rain possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
LOW confidence on the weekend forecast.
Saturday – Cloudy. Rain may redevelop as a new storm system takes shape. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 50s (temperatures may vary quite a bit on Saturday. This will depend on the passage of a cold front)
Winds: West at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (subject to adjustments as we draw nearer)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but let’s monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if the rain does develop
Saturday night – Cloudy with rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows in 40s
Winds: Southwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (subject to adjustments as we draw nearer)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if rain does develop)
Sunday – Cloudy. Rain possible. But, lower than normal confidence.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: West at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% (subject to adjustments as we draw nearer)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but let’s monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if the rain does develop
Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm Monday into Thursday morning
2. Rain chances increase on Thursday afternoon, but mainly Thursday night into Friday night
3. Questionable forecast for Saturday and Sunday
Shorter than normal update today. Getting ready for some travel!
Check out the temperature map on Monday afternoon. Can you find the snow cover to our north? Notice the temperature difference.
Here is your Thanksgiving Day forecast.
A few showers may enter our western counties by Thursday afternoon, but better rain chances arrive as we push into Thursday night and Friday. Widespread rain is likely by late Thursday night into Friday night. Right now it appears most areas will pick up at least one inch of rain. Some areas could top two inches. Let’s keep an eye on the trends as far as actual rainfall totals. The bottom line is that it is going to be wet Thursday night into Friday night.
I do not anticipated severe weather with this system. That is the good news. No frozen precipitation either.
The next big question mark becomes Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front is forecast to move through our region on Friday night and Saturday morning. The front may stall over our region. It would then wait for another piece of energy to move in from the southwest United States. If this happens then I will need to continue rain chances into the weekend. Other data moves the front through the area. That data keeps us mostly dry for Saturday and Sunday.
Needless to say some updates will be necessary for the Saturday and Sunday part of the forecast. I suspect we will have some rain chances.
Temperatures will be semi-mild this week. Expect 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps reaching the lower 60s by Thursday. Friday will deliver clouds and rain. That could keep temperatures mostly in the 50s.
If the front does move through our region on Friday night then colder air is possible over the weekend. Again, let’s keep an eye on that part of the forecast. Just not sure what this front is going to do. I should know more by tomorrow.
For those shopping Thursday night and Friday 🙂 here is your forecast!
For the time being, I do not see any snow or ice in our forecast. Note that I have brought back the snow forecast to the blog. They will be updated a couple of times each day.
No snow anticipated.
No frozen precipitation through Friday.
No major changes. I continue to monitor rain chances later this week. A fine tuning of the forecast will continue to be necessary as the timing of the rains arrival is still in question.
No major concerns.
No
The wild card in the forecast, for the upcoming week, will be the timing of the rains arrival on Thursday. Appears mostly Thursday night into Friday night.
Frost is possible on Tuesday morning.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No significant rain in the forecast through Wednesday.
The next system arrives Thursday (late) into Friday night. Expect a widespread rain event. I am anticipating a widespread 0.80″-1.60″ event. Locally heavier totals possible. Especially if training occurs. Training is where showers or thunderstorms track over the same areas repeatedly. This can enhance totals.
Here is the GFS model guidance rainfall totals. The scale is on the right. The yellow and orange colors are 1″+ of rainfall. Pockets of red. That would be nearly 2″ of rain. Again, this is one model guidance opinion.
Image is from WeatherBell.com
Here is the NOAA rainfall outlook through Saturday morning. Click images for larger views.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO through Thursday afternoon.
.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder Thursday night?
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Thunder?
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
