Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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  Monthly outlooks.
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Would you like to subscribe?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

November 2, 2018
Friday forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds today.  A few light showers or sprinkles possible.  Greatest chance will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  New rain totals will be less than 0.10″.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to  58        KY ~ 56 to  60      TN ~ 58 to  62
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind: Variable wind at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog and a few wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is snow or ice expected?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index:  3 to 4  Low to moderate
Sunrise: 7:21 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  Chilly.  An isolated shower possible.  Light winds.  Patchy fog may develop (esp if we clear out a bit)
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 40     IL ~  36 to 40     KY ~ 36 to 42       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Frost Risk:  Possible
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  Winds becoming west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.  Lower visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset: 5:56 PM
Moonrise:  1:41 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  3:26 PM

November 3, 2018
Saturday forecast:  Morning fog likely.  A mix of sun and clouds.  A bit warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 64      IL ~60 to 64       KY ~ 60 to 64       TN ~60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: West at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Morning fog could lower visibility in some areas.  Monitor river crest forecasts over the coming days.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4 to5  Moderate
Sunrise: 7:22 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A few showers may dot radar.  Rainfall totals will be less than 0.15″.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52     IL ~  46 to 52    KY ~ 48 to 52        TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk: No
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  Becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 5:55 PM
Moonrise:  2:49  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:03 PM

November 4, 2018
Sunday forecast:  Cloudy with showers again possible.  Breezy.  New rain totals 0.10″ to 0.30″.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 63 to 66       TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%     KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: South at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 3 to 5  Moderate
Sunrise: 6:23 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A shower again possible.  The best chance of rain will be during the AM hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50     IL ~  45 to 50     KY ~ 45 to 50       TN ~ 46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Frost Risk: None
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: South 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 4:54 PM
Moonrise:  2:56  AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  3:37 PM

November 5, 2018
Monday forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Becoming breezy.  I am closely monitoring a new storm system that will track into the region Monday into Tuesday.  This system could bring heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.  The track of the system is key to our severe weather chances.  Remember, severe weather can occur during the autumn months.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 64      IL ~ 62 to 64         KY ~ 62 to 64      TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  South at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor river crest forecasts over the coming days.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5  Moderate
Sunrise: 6:24 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms increasing.  Monitor the risk of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.  A bit early to know for sure on the severe weather threat.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55     IL ~  50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55       TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Frost Risk: No
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.   Lightning.  Monitor the risk of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset: 4:53 PM
Moonrise:  4:02  AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  4:09 PM

November 6, 2018
Tuesday forecast:  Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 66 with falling temperatures      IL ~ 63 to 66 with falling temperatures          KY ~ 63 to 66 with falling temperatures      TN ~ 63 to 66 with falling temperatures
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: Southwest becoming west/northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the risk of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1 to 3  Low
Sunrise: 6:23 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cool.  Patchy fog possible.  Rain should have come to an end.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 40     IL ~  35 to 40      KY ~ 35 to 40       TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending
Frost Risk: Monitor
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:51 PM
Moonrise:  5:06  AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  4:42 PM

I am monitoring a potent storm system next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  This could bring colder air into the region.

The Weather Observatory will be holding an open house for adults and children.  Weather permitting, the open house will be Saturday, December 1st.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Sunday night.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Monday into Tuesday:  Thunderstorms are possible.  Depending on the track of an area of low pressure, there could be strong thunderstorms.  Monitor the severe weather risk.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

 Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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1.  Unsettled weather
2.  Saturday should be dry.  The pick day of the weekend.
3.  Rain chances today, Saturday night, and Sunday.
4.  Strong storm system likely Monday and Tuesday.  Monitor the heavy rain and thunderstorm risk.

We still have ongoing flooding in some of our counties.  Avoid flooded roadways.  There will be sharp rises on area rivers over the coming weeks.  Additional heavy rain could increase the concern.

Here are radar estimated rainfall totals from the event.  The radars were underestimating rain totals.  In some cases greater than an inch of rain was missed by the radars.

The radar algorithms aren’t perfect.

Again, this image shows you what fell during yesterday’s event (WED/THU)

Click image to enlarge

What has already fallen

Here are a couple of photographs from Twitter.  One is from the Daviess County Emergency Management team.  The other one is from Jacob Woods (western Kentucky).

The photograph below is from Jacob Woods.

Today through Sunday

The good news is that heavy rain is not in the cards today through Sunday night.

Unfortunately, some light rain and clouds, however, will linger.

We do have two weak systems to monitor.

The first system will pass through the region today.  A few spotty light showers are likely.  Cool temperatures today, as well.

Another weak system arrives on Sunday.  This system will produce better chances of precipitation.  It is forecast to remain on the light side.

The pick day of the weekend will be Saturday.  Clouds may linger into Saturday.  Patchy morning fog, as well.  I am hoping that the clouds will clear Saturday.  This is not a certainty.  It is our best bet to see the sun over the coming days.

]

Monday and Tuesday 

A larger storm system is possible during Monday and Tuesday.  As a matter of fact, if the area of low pressure passes to our west then we are looking at additional moderate to heavy rain chances.  There is also a significant risk of severe thunderstorms south and east of the low’s track.

The risk of strong thunderstorms will need to be monitored.  If the models are correct, then this event could produce intense thunderstorms.

Autumn is typically our second severe weather season (I don’t like that word, because we can have severe weather all twelve months).  We do normally see an event or two during the Month of November.

It is important to monitor updated forecasts.

Additional moderate to heavy rain would cause some flooding concerns.  The ground is saturated from recent rains.

THe GFS depicts this as a severe weather threat for our local area.

You can see the red L in Missouri.  That is the area of low pressure.  If that is the correct track then that places us on the warm and moist side.  The atmosphere would likely unstable.  The end result would be heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.

The track of the low is key, as always.

The EC and GFS track the low to our west.

Check out the EC ensembles.

The EC ensembles track the low over us or to our west.  Again, this places us in the thunderstorm zone.

PWAT values will surge ahead of the cold front.  That could mean heavy rain.

Here are the forecast PWAT values.  That is in the top of the range for this time of the year.

Notice how it comes out of the Gulf of Mexico?

The low spins counter-clockwise.  As the low spins counter-clockwise it pulls moisture northward.

The model guidance is showing strong jet stream winds.  That would be a concern if true.

Here is the 850 mb wind map.  Those red and orange colors represent strong winds at about 5000′.  More than sufficient for concern.

The 500 mb map is quite impressive.  This is the jet stream.

It shows 100+ knots over our region (aloft).  That is a lot of energy to work with.

This shows the potential of severe weather.  Those red colors to dark red colors are the strongest jet stream winds.

The system is quite wound up.  Windy weather would also likely occur.

The system pulls away from our local area and creates a blizzard well to our north and northeast.  Tight pressure gradient.  The black lines are equal lines of pressure.  Tight isobars produce strong and gusty wind conditions.

The EC model shows a severe weather threat locally, as well.

Here is the EC animation.  You are watching a storm system coming out of the southwest Monday/Tuesday.

The green colors represent rain.  Darker colors are heavier rain.

The EC tracks the low through Missouri, as well.  That places us on the warm and moist side of the storm.

Colder weather would follow that system.

Rain chances Wednesday into Friday will be lower, but perhaps not zero.  A weak system could bring a few clouds and showers during this time period.  For now, I am not overly concerned.  I will monitor trends.

Again, rivers will be on the rise.

Updated November outlook for subscribers!

Temperatures

Precipitation

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Fall Outlook!

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

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Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

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Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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