November 10, 2014: This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Monday – A mix of sun and clouds – windy at times. High clouds increasing during the afternoon hours. Milder weather than recent days. High temperatures will be in the 60’s. Winds will be from the south/southwest at 5-15 mph during the morning hours. Winds will be from the south at 10-25 mph during the afternoon hours. Higher gusts likely to occur.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly sunny. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees.
Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny and windy at times. Mild. Temperatures will be around 64 degrees.
Monday night – Becoming cloudy. A small chance for a shower or sprinkle towards sunrise. Low temperatures will be in the 50’s. Southwest winds turning to the west towards sunrise.
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler. A chance for a shower. Temperatures steady or slowly falling through the afternoon hours. High temperatures will be in the 50’s (during the morning hours). Temperatures falling into the 40’s during the afternoon.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly cloudy. A chance for a light shower. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees.
Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Temperatures falling into the 40’s. A small chance for a sprinkle.
Tuesday night – Clearing. Cooler. Low temperatures in the lower 30’s. North/Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. Very cool for November. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40’s. North winds at 5-10 mph.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly clear. Cool. Temperature will be around 32 degrees.
Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Mostly sunny. Cool. Temperatures will be in the lower 40’s.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days.
The weather is about to change. An arctic blast will surge into the United States this week. This blast will be quite unusual for the middle of November. The extent and duration of the cold snap will be one to rememer.
Check out today’s future-cast radar. Look way up to our north. The first big winter storm of the season is spreading snow and ice across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. An indication that the atmosphere is changing.
Okay – now back to home and our local weather!
First, temperatures will warm into the 60’s today. You would not know that a blast of cold air was knocking on our door!
A few high clouds are expected today. Here is the future-cast satellite image for this afternoon. Remember that a satellite photograph shows clouds. The milky white/gray color represents at least some high clouds.
Here is the current live satellite view of the Ohio Valley
A cold front will push closer to the region later this afternoon. Winds will become gusty this afternoon. Expect frequent wind gusts of 15-25 mph. Expect a few wind gusts of 30-35 mph.
Here is the wind gust map for this afternoon – I marked a few locations. The numbers represent how gusty the winds might be.
By Tuesday morning the cold front will already be pushing into our local counties. Along the front there will be clouds and a few showers/sprinkles. Rainfall totals will not amount to much. A few spots might pick up 0.10″-0.20″
Here is the GFS model depicting some of the light showers in our region. This map is for the 1 am to 3 am time frame tonight. Note the snow up in Wisconsin. Early season winter storm for that region.
Here is the weather map for tomorrow. Note the green colors represent some light rain showers along and behind the front. Temperatures will fall behind the front.
Cold air will sink all the way to the Gulf of Mexico before all is said and done. More than 75% of the nation will experience below normal temperatures by the middle and end of this week.
Just look at the extent of these below normal temperatures. The scale is on the right side of the page. Most of the nation will be below normal in the temperature department.
The purple and blue colors represent 10 to 30 degrees below normal.
The cold weather should stick around into the weekend and into next week. It is not unusual to have a few cold snaps during the Month of November. This one is usual because of how much territory the cold air will cover and the long duration of the event.
There remains some question as to whether or not our region will experience snow with these cold surges. See the extended discussion for speculation on that topic.
Lot of graphics today.
Let’s check out temperatures for the next few days. I selected different city locations for you to view.
MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES – Graphic below
2 PM Readings – look at all that mild air!!!!
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES – Graphic below
8 AM Readings – cold front is advancing through the region
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES – Graphic below
4 PM Readings
THURSDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES – Graphic below
7 AM Readings
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES – Graphic below
4 PM Readings
Brrrrr will be the word over the coming week and into the weekend. An early season taste of winter.
Monday’s Map
The week ahead
Early season snow event (for you snow lovers)
How about one of our blog readers photograph? This photograph was taken by David Patterson. A beautiful sunset view – Thebes IL. Alexander county
I tweaked the temperatures just a little bit. We should see some middle 60’s today over some of our counties. I also increased wind speeds by about 10 mph.
Everything else looks just about right.
Cold weather is going to be a concern this week. Expect high temperatures to feel more like December/January than November. Some areas may struggle to get out of the 30’s on Thursday and Friday.
The Wild Card gives you an idea of what might change that would cause the forecast to bust. A busted forecast means a forecast that does not verify. For example, if a winter storm (the area of low pressure) shifts its track 50 miles further south than expected, then that could cause a dramatic change in how much snow might or might not accumulate.
Wild card in this forecast will be the exact timing of the cold front on Tuesday. It appears the front will be knocking at the door by Tuesday morning. The front will then push eastward through the entire region by Tuesday afternoon.
Another wild card will be the coverage of light rain showers along the front. Right now it appears that most areas will remain dry. Where precipitation does fall it should be light.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Severe weather is not going to be a concern through Friday.
Thunderstorm threat level is zero.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Will I need to take action?
No serious action requires from the weather over the coming 48 hour period. Cold weather arrives after that. Might be cold enough to break out the gloves for the young ones.
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
I have added a lot of new maps to the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site. Check them out by clicking here.
How much rain should this system produce over our region?
Very light amounts. Scale is on the right side of the page. All of this precipitation would fall late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Again, this is not going to be a big rain producer.
No winter weather concerns through Wednesday.
Cold weather and the possibility of some precipitation will be the main focus of the extended forecast.
I have talked about the cold air for quite awhile. Everything is coming together for a blast of cold air for much of the nation.
The big question is whether or not we can squeeze some snow/wintry mix out of this weather pattern. There will at least be some chances for precipitation over the coming 7-14 day period.
The first chance of precipitation will arrive this weekend. Perhaps on Saturday or Sunday. This will be in response to a system moving in from the west. Right now there remain quite a few questions on the track of the best moisture and lift. Some of the data takes it pretty far south and some data splits the energy. It is just too iffy to actually consider putting snow in the forecast.
If precipitation does fall then it would likely be snow or a wintry mix. I will continue to monitor the possibility and update the Facebook page and the blog.
There are some indications temperatures may warm up a little bit (few degrees) on Sunday. Then another wave of cold air is forecast for next week. Not seeing any major warm-ups.
It does appear we will have several systems to monitor over the coming 2-3 week period. If the cold air sticks around then snow will be in the forecast. I am leaning towards at least a few chances of snow before the month is over.
A rather large storm system may take shape later next week and the week of Thanksgiving. Teleconnections point towards this possibility.
Here are some graphics concerning the long range forecast.
This is the GFS model’s idea of the Saturday night and Sunday system. You can see it is spitting out some light snow over our local counties. Blue represents snow. Green represents rain. Again, there is little confidence in how this plays out. It is possible that the system will push too far south to bring much precipitation into our region. It is also possible that dry air aloft will eat into the precipitation (meaning whatever falls will be light).
A wait and see approach is the best course of action.
Couple of interesting graphics for you. I chose Metropolis for the seven day high and low temperatures (the top part of the image represents heating degree days).
Obviously Monday is the warmest day of the week.
Tired of temperature maps?
Tired of temperature maps? Sorry, the winter weather geek inside of me is just itching to post these maps.
Here is the Friday high temperature map. WELL below normal for this time of the year.
Here is the Saturday high temperature map (below)
Here is the Sunday high temperature map (below)
Temperatures might rise a few degrees more on Sunday vs Saturday. Still a long way out for an exact number. These charts give the current forecast thinking from the GFS model.
Let’s take a look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation forecast.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
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Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
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Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
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Benton, Kentucky
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Marion, Illinois
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